A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector

Background

United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline (‘business as usual’) scenario.

Results

Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe.

Conclusions

It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.

     

Simple infrared techniques for measuring beach surface moisture

Knowledge of surface moisture on beaches is vital for aeolian process studies because moisture increases transport thresholds and limits mass flux. A number of beach surface moisture measurement techniques have been employed in the field, including sample extraction, commercial soil moisture sensors, and remote sensing techniques. Each method has significant limitations in the context of aeolian process studies. This study was designed to test infrared optic techniques for measuring beach surface moisture. A simple infrared sensor (narrow‐band radiometer) was developed to measure beach surface moisture content. The accuracy and practical usability of the narrow‐band radiometer were assessed in comparison to a commercial handheld spectroradiometer. Field calibrations conducted at Cape San Blas, Florida and Padre Island, Texas indicated that the narrow‐band radiometer performed quite well. The R² values exceeded 0·98 in each case, and the standard error averaged about 1% moisture content compared with gravimetric moisture contents determined from 1·5 mm deep surface scrapes. The performance of the two instruments was found to be comparable, with the narrow‐band radiometer slightly outperforming the spectroradiometer. In practical applications, the narrow‐band radiometer also has logistical advantages and is better suited to measure large numbers of points. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multiresolution model for small-body gravity estimation

A new model, dubbed the MRQSphere, provides a multiresolution representation of the gravity field designed for its estimation. The multiresolution representation uses an approximation via Gaussians of the solution of the Laplace’s equation in the exterior of a sphere. Also, instead of the spherical harmonics, variations in the angular variables are modeled by a set of functions constructed using quadratures for the sphere invariant under the icosahedral group. When combined, these tools specify the spatial resolution of the gravity field as a function of altitude and required accuracy. We define this model, and apply it to representing and estimating the gravity field of the asteroid 433 Eros. We verified that a MRQSphere model derived directly from the true spherical harmonics gravity model satisfies the user defined precision. We also use the MRQSphere model to estimate the gravity field of Eros for a simulated satellite mission, yielding a solution with accuracy only limited by measurement errors and their spatial distribution.     

Visualizing Summertime Lightning Patterns on Colorado Fourteeners

In the context of lightning avoidance, this article explores temporal and spatial patterns of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes to Colorado Fourteeners, the popularly summited set of mountains that exceed 4,267 m (14,000 ft). The article describes the Fourteener concept, examines trends in lightning fatalities and injuries, and reviews thunderstorm climatology across the greater Colorado landscape. Fifteen years (1996–2010) of summertime lightning activity at near-summit locations are examined. Three measures characterize lightning activity for fifty-four Fourteeners: (1) overall strikes received, (2) lightning days, and (3) the time of day when lightning first strikes. Maps, histograms, and ranked lists identify trends and anomalies generated from the three measures. Examples of highest potential risks include Pikes Peak for Fourteener, Front Range for mountain range, and the third week of July for time of summer. The results can help avoid lightning when making long-term plans to visit Fourteeners and can heighten awareness when on Fourteeners. In addition to lightning avoidance, the article contributes to mountain geography and related atmospheric, physical, and social sciences.     

Movement of water infiltrated from a recharge basin to wells

Local surface water and stormflow were infiltrated intermittently from a 40-ha basin between September 2003 and September 2007 to determine the feasibility of recharging alluvial aquifers pumped for public supply, near Stockton, California. Infiltration of water produced a pressure response that propagated through unconsolidated alluvial-fan deposits to 125 m below land surface (bls) in 5 d and through deeper, more consolidated alluvial deposits to 194 m bls in 25 d, resulting in increased water levels in nearby monitoring wells. The top of the saturated zone near the basin fluctuates seasonally from depths of about 15 to 20 m. Since the start of recharge, water infiltrated from the basin has reached depths as great as 165 m bls. On the basis of sulfur hexafluoride tracer test data, basin water moved downward through the saturated alluvial deposits until reaching more permeable zones about 110 m bls. Once reaching these permeable zones, water moved rapidly to nearby pumping wells at rates as high as 13 m/d. Flow to wells through highly permeable material was confirmed on the basis of flowmeter logging, and simulated numerically using a two-dimensional radial groundwater flow model. Arsenic concentrations increased slightly as a result of recharge from 2 to 6 μg/L immediately below the basin. Although few water-quality issues were identified during sample collection, high groundwater velocities and short travel times to nearby wells may have implications for groundwater management at this and at other sites in heterogeneous alluvial aquifers.     

A sedimentary facies model for glacial-age sediments in Baldwin Lake, Southern California

A combined sedimentological and high-resolution petrographic analysis was conducted on a glacial-age (20,000–65,000 cal yr BP) sediment core from Baldwin Lake, Southern California. The results of this research represent the most complete glacial-age, terrestrial climate record from Southern California to date. These results are used to characterize the different sediment types and to investigate the difference in depositional processes and environments between the core's three predominant sediment types: massive, semi-laminated, and laminated sediments. Massive sediments are commonly associated with a blocky texture and/or desiccation cracks, are organic-poor, have high magnetic susceptibility values, and are coarser-grained. Thin-sections from massive sediments reveal a homogenous sediment fabric. Sub-centimeter-scale laminated and centimeter-scale semi-laminated sediments are generally organic-rich, have low magnetic susceptibility values, and are finer grained. Thin-sections from laminated and semi-laminated sediments reveal diffuse sub-millimeter- to millimeter-scale laminae. This combination of sedimentological and high-resolution petrographic data enabled us to characterize four sediment facies, each related to specific depositional processes and environments: (1) a playa lake; (2) a perennial shallow lake; (3) an intermediate lake with variable lake level; and, (4) a perennial deep lake. At centennial-to millennial-timescales, lower lake levels are represented by deposition of massive to semi-laminated sediments in a playa to a perennial shallow lake environment. At similar timescales, higher lake levels are recorded by semi-laminated to laminated sediments deposited in an intermediate lake to a perennial deep lake environment. These results provide an additional sedimentological study for comparison to similar arid environment basins, and for comparison to existing regional paleoclimatic reconstructions.     

Origin and Extent of Fresh Paleowaters on the Atlantic Continental Shelf, USA

While the existence of relatively fresh groundwater sequestered within permeable, porous sediments beneath the Atlantic continental shelf of North and South America has been known for some time, these waters have never been assessed as a potential resource. This fresh water was likely emplaced during Pleistocene sea-level low stands when the shelf was exposed to meteoric recharge and by elevated recharge in areas overrun by the Laurentide ice sheet at high latitudes. To test this hypothesis, we present results from a high-resolution paleohydrologic model of groundwater flow, heat and solute transport, ice sheet loading, and sea level fluctuations for the continental shelf from New Jersey to Maine over the last 2 million years. Our analysis suggests that the presence of fresh to brackish water within shallow Miocene sands more than 100 km offshore of New Jersey was facilitated by discharge of submarine springs along Baltimore and Hudson Canyons where these shallow aquifers crop out. Recharge rates four times modern levels were computed for portions of New England's continental shelf that were overrun by the Laurentide ice sheet during the last glacial maximum. We estimate the volume of emplaced Pleistocene continental shelf fresh water (less than 1 ppt) to be 1300 km³ in New England. We also present estimates of continental shelf fresh water resources for the U.S. Atlantic eastern seaboard (10⁴ km³) and passive margins globally (3 × 10⁵ km³). The simulation results support the hypothesis that offshore fresh water is a potentially valuable, albeit nonrenewable resource for coastal megacities faced with growing water shortages.     

Orbit uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis with separated representations

Most approximations for stochastic differential equations with high-dimensional, non-Gaussian inputs suffer from a rapid (e.g., exponential) increase of computational cost, an issue known as the curse of dimensionality. In astrodynamics, this results in reduced accuracy when propagating an orbit-state probability density function. This paper considers the application of separated representations for orbit uncertainty propagation, where future states are expanded into a sum of products of univariate functions of initial states and other uncertain parameters. An accurate generation of separated representation requires a number of state samples that is linear in the dimension of input uncertainties. The computation cost of a separated representation scales linearly with respect to the sample count, thereby improving tractability when compared to methods that suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In addition to detailed discussions on their construction and use in sensitivity analysis, this paper presents results for three test cases of an Earth orbiting satellite. The first two cases demonstrate that approximation via separated representations produces a tractable solution for propagating the Cartesian orbit-state uncertainty with up to 20 uncertain inputs. The third case, which instead uses Equinoctial elements, reexamines a scenario presented in the literature and employs the proposed method for sensitivity analysis to more thoroughly characterize the relative effects of uncertain inputs on the propagated state.     

A pre-Ipswichian cold stage mammalian fauna from the Balderton Sand and Gravel,Lincolnshire, England

The Balderton Sand and Gravel has yielded one of very few mammalian faunas dated to the penultimate Cold Stage in Britain. The assemblage is dominated by mammoth and woolly rhinoceros, with subordinate horse, red deer, bison, straight-tusked elephant, musk ox, reindeer, wolf, lion, brown bear and cf. narrow-nosed rhinoceros. This fauna indicates cold stage conditions, probably including one or more interstadial episodes. The presence of straight-tusked elephant and cf. narrow-nosed rhinoceros supports its pre-Devensian age, and provides corroboration for the occurrence of these taxa in the British Wolstonian. An attempt is made to analyse the fossil collection by preservation type and adhering sediment: the occurrence of individual species appears to be largely uncorrelated with lithology. The Balderton assemblage corresponds well to other British mammal faunas assigned to a cold interval between the Hoxnian and Ipswichian Interglacials.     

Tectonic and Topographic Framework of Political Division

Boundaries between the various topographic, geologic, and socio-political entities that span the Earths continental surfaces are determined by a myriad of complexly interrelated natural and/or cultural factors. Areas of large river basins, of lithologic units on geologic maps, and of nations exhibit size frequency distributions that are closely approximated by density functions in which diameters of individual areas are distributed exponentially. As such, size distributions of each type of surface unit are closely modeled as randomly delimited areas. In other words, if one were to walk in a straight line across any particular continent, each step along that transect would embody some random continuous probability of passing out of a major drainage basin, or out of an area of more or less homogeneous rock type, or from one country to another. Moreover, this simple truism gives rise to area frequency distributions for large river basin or outcrop or nation area that are primarily dependent on the number of basins or outcrops or countries that exist across that particular landmass. As a consequence, the size frequencies of these areal units can be closely predicted knowing only the total area under consideration and the number of drainage basins, outcrop areas, or nations that exist within the area. The similarity between area frequencies of large river basins and rock types and nations suggests a nontrivial component of geologic influence on the partitioning of continental surfaces into major political divisions, and implies that cultural and economic factors, which serve to divide and unite political entities, do so within a geological framework.