Hazards from pyroclastic density currents at Mt. Etna (Italy)

Despite the recent recognition of Mount Etna as a periodically violently explosive volcano, the hazards from various types of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have until now received virtually no attention at this volcano. Large-scale pyroclastic flows last occurred during the caldera-forming Ellittico eruptions, 15–16 ka ago, and the risk of them occurring in the near future is negligible. However, minor PDCs can affect much of the summit area and portions of the upper flanks of the volcano. During the past ~ 20 years, small pyroclastic flows or base-surge-like vapor and ash clouds have occurred in at least 8 cases during summit eruptions of Etna. Four different mechanisms of PDC generation have been identified during these events: (1) collapse of pyroclastic fountains (as in 2000 and possibly in 1986); (2) phreatomagmatic explosions resulting from mixing of lava with wet rock (2006); (3) phreatomagmatic explosions resulting from mixing of lava with thick snow (2007); (4) disintegration of the unstable flanks of a lava dome-like structure growing over the rim of one of the summit craters (1999). All of these recent PDCs were of a rather minor extent (maximum runout lengths were about 1.5 km in November 2006 and March 2007) and thus they represented no threat for populated areas and human property around the volcano. Yet, events of this type pose a significant threat to the lives of people visiting the summit area of Etna, and areas in a radius of 2 km from the summit craters should be off-limits anytime an event capable of producing similar PDCs occurs. The most likely source of further PDCs in the near future is the Southeast Crater, the youngest, most active and most unstable of the four summit craters of Etna, where 6 of the 8 documented recent PDCs originated. It is likely that similar hazards exist in a number of volcanic settings elsewhere, especially at snow- or glacier-covered volcanoes and on volcano slopes strongly affected by hydrothermal alteration.     

Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

On the origin of the prolate solar chromosphere

A simple geometric model is proposed to explain the recently reported effect of the prolateness of the solar chromosphere. We assume that a specific dynamical part of the solar atmosphere above the 2 Mm level, being a mixture of moving up and down jets of chromospheric matter with the coronal plasma between them, is responsible for the solar prolateness. Due to the dynamic nature of this layer, the magnetic field is considered to play a very important role in the density distribution with the height, guiding the mass flows along the field lines. The difference of the magnetic field topology in the polar and the equatorial regions leads to different heights of the chromospheric limb. Calculations show a satisfactory coincidence with observations when the mean separation between opposite polarity concentrations is about 9 Mm. The possible observational signature of this network in low photospheric and chromospheric layers is discussed.     

Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension

This study systematically analyzes the complete IPCC AR4 (CMIP3) ensemble of GCM simulations with respect to changes in extreme event characteristics at the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. It complements previous studies by investigating a more comprehensive database and considering seasonal changes beside the annual time scale. Confirming previous studies, the agreement between the GCMs is generally high for temperature-related extremes, indicating increases of warm day occurrences and heatwave lengths, and decreases of cold extremes. However, we identify issues with the choice of indices used to quantify heatwave lengths, which do overall not affect the sign of the changes, but strongly impact the magnitude and patterns of projected changes in heatwave characteristics. Projected changes in precipitation and dryness extremes are more ambiguous than those in temperature extremes, despite some robust features, such as increasing dryness over the Mediterranean and increasing heavy precipitation over the Northern high latitudes. We also find that the assessment of projected changes in dryness depends on the index choice, and that models show less agreement regarding changes in soil moisture than in the commonly used ‘consecutive dry days’ index, which is based on precipitation data only. Finally an analysis of the scaling of changes of extreme temperature quantiles with global, regional and seasonal warming shows that much of the extreme quantile changes are due to a seasonal scaling of the regional annual-mean warming. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal time scale also for extremes. Changes in extreme quantiles of temperature on land scale with changes in global annual mean temperature by a factor of more than 2 in some regions and seasons, implying large changes in extremes in several countries, even for the commonly discussed global 2°C-warming target.     

Response of alpine chironomid communities (Lake Chuna, Kola Peninsula, northwestern Russia) to atmospheric contamination

A short sediment core from the deepest part of an alpine lake (Lake Chuna, Kola Peninsula, northwestern Russia), covering about the past 200 yrs of sediment accumulation, was analysed for chironomid head capsule remains. The lake has been receiving acidic precipitation and heavy metals loading from the atmosphere since the 1940's. A total of 22 chironomid taxa were recorded. The most important taxa were typical elements of oligotrophic lakes, i.e.Micropsectra insignilobus, Paratanytarsus penicillatus, Stictochironomus spp. and Heterotrissocladius marcidus. Based on the cluster analyses results for the reconstructed environmental variables and chironomid communities, three developmental stages were distinguished from the lake history: (1) Natural ontogeny stage (before ~1945); (2) Initial stage of anthropogenic ontogeny (~1945-~1982); and (3) Anthropogenic ontogeny stage (~1982-~1996). During the first period, the changes in the chironomid fauna were characterized as an anthropogenically undisturbed community, with M. insignilobus dominating (46-66%). The changes during the second period reflected the initial phase of anthropogenic succession associated with the beginning of acidification and heavy metal pollution. The main species showed opposite distributional patterns in this period; the abundance of the group M. insignilobus/Stictochironomus spp. decreased, whereas the abundance of P. penicillatus/H. marcidus increased. The third period was characterized by a major shift in the faunal assemblages, from M. insignilobus to other dominant species including P. penicillatus (19-30%). The increases of Orthocladiinae relative abundance and total organic content in the uppermost sediment layers may be explained by a decrease in lake productivity. The decreases of cold-stenothermal taxa Stictochironomus spp. and M. insignilobus in the uppermost sediment layers can be explained by the global warming during the 20th century. The lake ecosystem is likely to be affected by both inputs of airborne contaminants and climate changes.     

Simulations of magnetic-flux transport in solar active regions

We simulate the evolution of several observed solar active regions by solving a transport equation for magnetic flux at the photosphere. The rates of rotation, meridional flow, and diffusion of the flux are determined self-consistently in the calculations. Our findings are in good quantitative agreement with previous measures of the rotation rate and diffusion constant associated with photospheric magnetic fields. Although our meridional velocities are consistent in direction and magnitude with recently reported poleward flows, relatively large uncertainties in our velocity determinations make this result inconclusive.Laboratory for Computational Physics.E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research.     

The theory of the Trojan asteroids,part V

E.W. Brown conjectured (1911) that the family of the long-periodic orbits in the Troian case of the restricted problem of three bodies terminates in an asymptotic orbit passing through the Lagrangian point L₃ at t=±∞. In 1977 the author showed that such an orbit deviates from L₃ by the epicyclic term mg (±∞). It is shown here that $$g\left( { \pm \infty } \right) = 0,$$ so that the Brown conjecture regarding L₃ is false. Contrary to what Brown believed, there is an entire family ofhomoclinic orbits, doubly asymptotic to short-periodic orbits around L₃. In the complex z-plane of the Poincaré eccentric variables, the latter orbits are circles of radius mR, with R bounded away from zero. The kinematics of the homoclinic family is investigated here in some detail.     

Vibrational states of H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O in beryl: physical aspects

Single-crystal polarized Raman spectra (3,000–4,000 cm⁻¹ at 3 ≤ T ≤ 300 K) were measured for synthetic alkali-free and natural beryl, Be₂Al₃Si₆O₁₈·xH₂O, to determine the behavior of H₂O molecules of both Type I and Type II in the cavities. At low temperature, the H₂O molecules of Type I displace from the center of cavity and give rise to very weak hydrogen bonding with the host lattice. The H₂O Type I translational motion is characterized by substantial anharmonicity and looks like a motion of “a particle in the box” with a frequency of 6.3 cm⁻¹. Water Type II is characterized by a free rotation with respect to the C ₂ molecule axis, and it makes possible the water nuclear isomers (i.e. ortho- and para-) to be observed at low temperature.

Interactive Knowledge Generation in Urban Green Building Transitions

Knowledge coproduction between practitioners and scientists offers promising opportunities for the emerging research field of the geography of sustainability transitions. Drawing on experiences from an international research project on urban green building transitions, this article explores the potentials and challenges of interactive and collaborative knowledge generation methods in understanding sustainability transitions. Our results show that ongoing engagement with local experts and practitioners through interactive World Café workshops and follow-up exchanges allows for a better understanding of the research context and knowledge exchange to all participants involved in the research process.