Probabilistic analysis of risk and mitigation of deepwater well blowouts and oil spills

The development of robust risk assessment procedures for offshore oil and gas operations is a major element for the assessment of the potential feedback between planned activities and the environment. We illustrate a methodological and computational framework conducive to (1) a quantitative risk analysis of deepwater well barrier failures and subsequent hydrocarbon release to the environment and (2) the analysis of the value of the deployment of conventional and/or innovative mitigation measures. Our methodological framework is grounded on historical records and combines the use of Dynamic Event Trees and Decision Trees from which we estimate probability of occurrence and impact of post-blowout events. Each sequence of response actions, which are undertaken immediately after the event or in the subsequent days, is considered within the context of appropriately structured event paths. This approach is conducive to an estimate of the expected value of key decisions and underlying technologies, with an emphasis on their potential to reduce the oil spill volume, which can critically impact the environment. Our study yields an original comparative analysis of diverse intervention strategies, and forms a basis to guiding future efforts towards the development and deployment of technologies and operating procedures yielding maximum benefit in terms of safety of operations and environmental protection.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for target-oriented and interval-oriented amplitude versus angle inversions with non-parametric priors and non-linear forward modellings

In geophysical inverse problems, the posterior model can be analytically assessed only in case of linear forward operators, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture, or generalized Gaussian prior models, continuous model properties, and Gaussian-distributed noise contaminating the observed data. For this reason, one of the major challenges of seismic inversion is to derive reliable uncertainty appraisals in cases of complex prior models, non-linear forward operators and mixed discrete-continuous model parameters. We present two amplitude versus angle inversion strategies for the joint estimation of elastic properties and litho-fluid facies from pre-stack seismic data in case of non-parametric mixture prior distributions and non-linear forward modellings. The first strategy is a two-dimensional target-oriented inversion that inverts the amplitude versus angle responses of the target reflections by adopting the single-interface full Zoeppritz equations. The second is an interval-oriented approach that inverts the pre-stack seismic responses along a given time interval using a one-dimensional convolutional forward modelling still based on the Zoeppritz equations. In both approaches, the model vector includes the facies sequence and the elastic properties of P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. The distribution of the elastic properties at each common-mid-point location (for the target-oriented approach) or at each time-sample position (for the time-interval approach) is assumed to be multimodal with as many modes as the number of litho-fluid facies considered. In this context, an analytical expression of the posterior model is no more available. For this reason, we adopt a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically evaluate the posterior uncertainties. With the aim of speeding up the convergence of the probabilistic sampling, we adopt a specific recipe that includes multiple chains, a parallel tempering strategy, a delayed rejection updating scheme and hybridizes the standard Metropolis–Hasting algorithm with the more advanced differential evolution Markov chain method. For the lack of available field seismic data, we validate the two implemented algorithms by inverting synthetic seismic data derived on the basis of realistic subsurface models and actual well log data. The two approaches are also benchmarked against two analytical inversion approaches that assume Gaussian-mixture-distributed elastic parameters. The final predictions and the convergence analysis of the two implemented methods proved that our approaches retrieve reliable estimations and accurate uncertainties quantifications with a reasonable computational effort.     

An international program on Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction——a Belt and Road initiative (2016-2020)

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a Chinese national strategy which calls for cooperative economic, political and cultural exchange at the global level along the ancient Silk Road. The overwhelming natural hazards located along the belt and road bring great challenges to the success of BRI. In this framework, a 5-year international program was launched to address issues related to hazards assessment and disaster risk reduction (DRR). The first workshop of this program was held in Beijing with international experts from over 15 countries. Risk conditions on Belt and Road Countries (BRCs) have been shared and science and technology advancements on DRR have been disseminated during the workshop. Under this program, six task forces have been setup to carry out collaborative research works and three prioritized study areas have been established. This workshop announced the launching of this program which involved partners from different countries including Pakistan, Nepal, Russia, Italy, United Kingdom, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan. The program adopted the objectives of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and United Nation Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and was implemented to assess disaster risk in BRCs and to propose suitable measures for disaster control which can be appropriate both for an individual country and for specific sites. This paper deals with the outcomes of the workshop and points out opportunities for the near future international cooperation on this matter.     

The Intra-Pontide ophiolites in Northern Turkey revisited:From birth to death of a Neotethyan oceanic domain

The Anatolian peninsula is a key location to study the central portion of the Neotethys Ocean(s)and to understand how its western and eastern branches were connected.One of the lesser known branches of the Mesozoic ocean(s)is preserved in the northern ophiolite suture zone exposed in Turkey,namely,the Intra-Pontide suture zone.It is located between the Sakarya terrane and the Eurasian margin(i.e.,Istanbul-Zonguldak terrane)and consists of several metamorphic and non-metamorphic units containing ophiolites produced in supra-subduction settings from the Late Triassic to the Early Cretaceous.Ophiolites preserved in the metamorphic units recorded pervasive deformations and peak metamorphic conditions ranging from blueschist to eclogite facies.In the nonmetamorphic units,the complete oceanic crust sequence is preserved in tectonic units or as olistoliths in sedimentary melanges.Geochemical,structural,metamorphic and geochronological investigations performed on ophiolite-bearing units allowed the formulation of a new geodynamic model of the entire"life"of the IntraPontide oceanic basin(s).The reconstruction starts with the opening of the Intra-Pontide oceanic basins during the Late Triassic between the Sakarya and Istanbul-Zonguldak continental microplates and ends with its closure caused by two different subductions events that occurred during the upper Early Jurassic and Middle Jurassic.The continental collision between the Sakarya continental microplate and the Eurasian margin developed from the upper Early Cretaceous to the Palaeocene.The presented reconstruction is an alternative model to explain the complex and articulate geodynamic evolution that characterizes the southern margin of Eurasia during the Mesozoic era.     

Implications of land use change on the national terrestrial carbon budget of Georgia

Background  

Globally, the loss of forests now contributes almost 20% of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. There is an immediate need to reduce the current rates of forest loss, and the associated release of carbon dioxide, but for many areas of the world these rates are largely unknown. The Soviet Union contained a substantial part of the world's forests and the fate of those forests and their effect on carbon dynamics remain unknown for many areas of the former Eastern Bloc. For Georgia, the political and economic transitions following independence in 1991 have been dramatic. In this paper we quantify rates of land use changes and their effect on the terrestrial carbon budget for Georgia. A carbon book-keeping model traces changes in carbon stocks using historical and current rates of land use change. Landsat satellite images acquired circa 1990 and 2000 were analyzed to detect changes in forest cover since 1990.     

Post‐Variscan tectonics in eastern Anti‐Atlas (Morocco)

New field data integrated by fission‐track (FT) analysis unravel an innovative scenario for the post‐Variscan evolution of the eastern Anti‐Atlas. This area, unaffected by Meso‐Cenozoic tectonics according to most workers, is crosscut by crustal faults bearing evidence of a polyphase deformation history. Apatite FT ages, ranging between 284 and 88 Ma, point to fast Neogene exhumation and unravel contrasting cooling paths across major faults. Results show that the study area was buried beneath 2 km of allochthonous Variscan units, now eroded. The eastern Anti‐Atlas acted as the southern shoulder of the Atlasic rift in the Mesozoic, and underwent a dextral transpressional structuring of Neogene age followed by sub‐meridian shortening. The southern front of Atlasic deformation is therefore located inside the Anti‐Atlas region, and it is still active.     

On the dynamics in the asteroids belt. Part II: Detailed study of the main resonances

The general theory exposed in the first part of this paper is applied to the following resonances with Jupiter's motion : 3/2, 2/1, 5/2, 3/1, 7/2, 4/1; these are the most relevant resonances for the asteroids. The whole analysis is performed in the framework of the spatial problem of three bodies, both in the circular and in the elliptic case. The results are also compared with the observed distribution of the asteroids.     

The role of syn-eruptive vesiculation on explosive basaltic activity at Mt. Etna,Italy

We investigated the dynamics of explosive activity at Mt. Etna between 31 August and 15 December 2006 by combining vesicle studies in the erupted products with measurements of the gas composition at the active, summit crater. The analysed scoria clasts present large, connected vesicles with complex shapes and smaller, isolated, spherical vesicles, the content of which increases in scoriae from the most explosive events. Gas geochemistry reports CO₂/SO₂ and SO₂/HCl ratios supporting a deep-derived gas phase for fire-fountain activity. By integrating results from scoria vesiculation and gas analysis we find that the highest energy episodes of Mt. Etna activity in 2006 were driven by a previously accumulated CO₂-rich gas phase but we highlight the lesser role of syn-eruptive vesicle nucleation driven by water exsolution during ascent. We conclude that syn-eruptive vesiculation is a common process in Etnean magmas that may promote a deeper conduit magma fragmentation and increase ash formation.     

Hydrologic and geochemical survey of the lake “Specchio di Venere” (Pantelleria island,Southern Italy)

Hydrological and geochemical studies performed on Lake Specchio di Venere on Pantelleria island (Italy) indicate that this endorheic basin has been formed through upwelling of the water table, and that it is continuously fed by the thermal springs situated on its shores. The lake is periodically stratified both thermally and in salinity, albeit this stratification is rather unstable over time, since meteorological events such as strong rain or wind can determine the mixing of its waters. Periodical analyses of the lake water chemistry show large variations of the salt content due to the yearly evaporation-rain dilution cycle. These processes are also responsible for the saline stratification during steady meteorological conditions. The mineralogical characterisation of the bottom sediments shows the almost exclusive presence of neoformation minerals, mainly carbonates, formed in response to the pH gradient between spring- (pH ≈ 6) and lake-waters (pH ≈ 9). Finally, the CO₂ partial pressures in the lake water slightly exceeding the atmospheric one, are due to the large amounts of CO₂ brought to the lake through the bubbling free gas phase of the thermal springs. Nevertheless the high pH value of the lake water, its small volume and its periodical mixing prevent dangerous built up of this gas.