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91.
We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C. 相似文献
92.
Authigenic albites in carbonate rocks typically grow in a high-grade diagenetic to low-grade metamorphic environment and often show Roc-Tourné-twinning sensu Füchtbauer. Based on an investigation of four Middle to South European occurrences, they show Mn2+- and Fe3+-activated cathodoluminescence (CL), as revealed by combined high resolution spectroscopy of cathodoluminescence emission (HRS-CL), electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), and proton-induced X-ray emission (μPIXE). 相似文献
93.
Seagrass meadows are often cited as important nursery areas for newly settled red drum even though many estuaries, such as Galveston Bay, Texas, support large numbers of red drum and have limited seagrass cover, suggesting the use of alternate nursery areas. We examined patterns of habitat use for newly settled red drum at six sampling areas in Galveston Bay; two areas had seagrass beds and four areas had no seagrass. We measured densities in different habitat types using epibenthic sleds and enclosure samplers. Peak recruitment of young red drum to the estuary occurred during September through December. Highest densities of new settlers were found in seagrass meadows (primarilyHalodule wrightii), but when seagrass was absent, the highest densities of red drum occurred along theSpartina alterniflora marsh edge interface. Densities were relatively low on nonvegetated bottom away from the marsh edge. We also examined density patterns in other habitat types at selected sampling areas and found no red drum within marsh vegetation away from the marsh edge interface (5 and 10 m into the marsh interior). Oyster reefCrassostrea virginica was sampled using lift nets, and we found no red drum using this habitat, although adjacent seagrass and marsh interface habitats were used. Even though red drum densities in marsh edge were low relative to seagrass, the large areal extent of marshes in the bay complex probably makes marsh edge the most important nursery habitat for red drum in Galveston Bay. 相似文献
94.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Donald Scavia John C. Field Donald F. Boesch Robert W. Buddemeier Virginia Burkett Daniel R. Cayan Michael Fogarty Mark A. Harwell Robert W. Howarth Curt Mason Denise J. Reed Thomas C. Royer Asbury H. Sallenger James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. 相似文献
95.
Mathematical Geosciences - 相似文献
96.
Christof Müller Bernd Milkereit Thomas Bohlen Friedrich Theilen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2002,50(5):517-526
The use of Boomer sources for 3D seismic imaging of shallow marine structures was investigated in a feasibility study. Boomers show sufficient stability to be used in multichannel seismic surveys. The acquisition of a high-frequency, densely sampled seismic data volume was successfully performed in the Baltic Sea. A Pleistocene fluvial channel system and shallow gas accumulations were revealed beneath the unconsolidated sediments which constitute the sea-floor in the southern Kiel Bay. 相似文献
97.
Thomas K. Nielsen Hans Christian Larsen John R. Hopper 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,200(3-4):271-286
We present new and reprocessed seismic reflection data from the area where the southeast and southwest Greenland margins intersected to form a triple junction south of Greenland in the early Tertiary. During breakup at 56 Ma, thick igneous crust was accreted along the entire 1300-km-long southeast Greenland margin from the Greenland Iceland Ridge to, and possibly 100 km beyond, the triple junction into the Labrador Sea. However, highly extended and thin crust 250 km to the west of the triple junction suggests that magmatically starved crustal formation occurred on the southwest Greenland margin at the same time. Thus, a transition from a volcanic to a non-volcanic margin over only 100–200 km is observed. Magmatism related to the impact of the Iceland plume below the North Atlantic around 61 Ma is known from central-west and southeast Greenland. The new seismic data also suggest the presence of a small volcanic plateau of similar age close to the triple junction. The extent of initial plume-related volcanism inferred from these observations is explained by a model of lateral flow of plume material that is guided by relief at the base of the lithosphere. Plume mantle is channelled to great distances provided that significant melting does not take place. Melting causes cooling and dehydration of the plume mantle. The associated viscosity increase acts against lateral flow and restricts plume material to its point of entry into an actively spreading rift. We further suggest that thick Archaean lithosphere blocked direct flow of plume material into the magma-starved southwest Greenland margin while the plume was free to flow into the central west and east Greenland margins. The model is consistent with a plume layer that is only moderately hotter, 100–200°C, than ambient mantle temperature, and has a thickness comparable to lithospheric thickness variations, 50–100 km. Lithospheric architecture, the timing of continental rifting and viscosity changes due to melting of the plume material are therefore critical parameters for understanding the distribution of magmatism. 相似文献
98.
Explaining success and failure in international river management 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Thomas Bernauer 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2002,64(1):1-19
When and why are international efforts to solve transboundary river management problems successful? When and why do such efforts fail, and what does success or failure mean? With more than 260 international river basins covering 45% of the Earth's land surface, and with freshwater being humanity's most valuable natural resource, these questions are hardly trivial. Natural scientists and engineers have provided some answers, but they remain far from complete without major input from the social sciences. While technical know-how and innovation are also crucial to successful international river management, success in this context hinges primarily on political processes in which institutional arrangements are designed and implemented. This review essay maintains that social scientists have made considerable progress in this field since 1977, when a landmark book by David Le Marquand on the politics of international river management was published. This progress includes the development of theoretically better informed explanatory models and their evaluation against an increasing amount of empirical information. It provides a solid foundation for proceeding to a larger-scale research effort that involves the analysis of a larger set of empirical cases on the basis of a single explanatory model. 相似文献
99.
The Austrian blackfly fauna were analysed with regard to spatial (ecoregions, bioregions), vertical (altitude classes) and longitudinal zonation characteristics [stream order, biocoenotic (= fish) regions] on the basis of 2600 investigation sites. Of a total of 45 species recorded, Simulium ornatum, S. variegatum, S. argyreatum and S. reptans are the most common and most frequently distributed species, occurring in 60% of the investigated sites. Although the Austrian blackfly fauna seem to be quite well documented (on average one investigation site per 32 km2) the jackknife analyses indicates that there are still some fauna deficits. Whereas the species diversity of the main ecoregions is quite similar, the number of species differs clearly between the bioregions. Within the typological context of the Water Framework Directive, the Austrian Simuliidae confirm the bioregions as the most useful spatial units for river typology. A further optimisation in predicting a target list of blackfly species of a site can be achieved by subdividing the bioregions into either catchment area and altitude classes or into longitudinal zonation types (biocoenotic regions). 相似文献
100.
Byron C. Shumate Claire L. Schelske Thomas L. Crisman William F. Kenney 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(1):71-77
A paleolimnological evaluation of cladoceran microfossils was initiated to study limnological changes in Lake Apopka, a large (125 km2), shallow (mean depth = 1.6 m), warm, polymictic lake in central Florida. The lake switched from macrophyte to algal dominance in the late 1940s, creating a Sediment Discontinuity Layer (SDL) that can be visually used to separate sediments derived from macrophytes and phytoplankton. Cladoceran microfossils were enumerated as a means of corroborating extant eutrophication data from the sediment record. Inferences about the timing and trajectory of eutrophication were made using the cladoceran-based paleo-reconstruction. The cladoceran community of Lake Apopka began to change abruptly in both total abundance and relative percent abundance just before the lake shifted from macrophyte to algal dominance. Alona affinis, a mud-vegetation associated cladoceran, disappeared before the SDL was formed. Planktonic and benthic species also began to increase below the SDL, indicating an increase in production of both planktonic and benthic species. Chydorus cf. sphaericus, an indicator of nutrient loading, increased relative to all other cladocerans beginning in the layer below the SDL and continuing upcore. Changes in the transitional sediment layer formed before the lake switched to phytoplankton dominance, including an increase in total phosphorus concentration, suggest a more gradual eutrophication process than previously reported. Data from this study supported conclusions from other paleolimnological studies that suggested anthropogenic phosphorus loading was the key factor in the hypereutrophication of Lake Apopka. 相似文献