Method of moments of the Halphen distribution parameters

Halphen laws have been proposed as a complete system of distributions with sufficient statistics that lead to estimation with minimum variance. The Halphen system provides a flexibility to fit a large variety of data sets from natural events. In this paper we present the method of moments (MM) to estimate the Halphen type B and IB distribution parameters. Their computation is very fast when compared to those given by the maximum likelihood method (ML). Furthermore, this estimation method is very easy to implement since the formulae are explicit. Some simulations show the equivalence of both methods when estimating the quantiles for finite sample size.     

Simulation of groundwater flow in a crystalline rock aquifer system in Southern Ghana – An evaluation of the effects of increased groundwater abstraction on the aquifers using a transient groundwater flow model

Monitored groundwater level data, well logs, and aquifer data as well as the relevant surface hydrological data were used to conceptualise the hydrogeological system of the Densu Basin in Southern Ghana. The objective was to numerically derive the hydraulic conductivity field for better characterization of the aquifer system and for simulating the effects of increasing groundwater abstraction on the aquifer system in the basin. The hydraulic conductivity field has been generated in this study through model calibration. This study finds that hydraulic conductivity ranges between a low of 2 m/d in the middle sections of the basin and about 40 m/d in the south. Clear differences in the underlying geology have been indicated in the distribution of aquifer hydraulic conductivities. This is in consonance with the general assertion that the hydrogeological properties of the aquifers in the crystalline basement terrains are controlled by the degree of fracturing and/or weathering of the country rock. The transient model suggest aquifer specific storage values to range between 6.0 × 10^?5 m^?1 and 2.1 × 10^?4 m^?1 which are within acceptable range of values normally quoted for similar lithologies in the literature. There is an apparent subtle decrease in groundwater recharge from about 13% of the annual precipitation in 2005 to about 10.3% of the precipitation in 2008. The transient model was used to simulate responses of the system to annual increment of groundwater abstraction by 20% at the 2008 recharge rates for the period 2009 – 2024. The results suggest that the system will not be able to sustain this level of abstraction as it would lead to a basin wide drawdown in the hydraulic head by 4 m by the end of the prediction period. It further suggests a safe annual increment in groundwater abstraction by 5% under business as usual recharge conditions. Identification and protection of groundwater recharge areas in the basin are recommended in order to safeguard the integrity of the resource under the scenario of increased abstraction for commercial activities in the basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring precipitable water vapor in real-time using global navigation satellite systems

This paper addresses real-time monitoring of the precipitable water vapor (PWV) from GNSS measurements and presents some results obtained from 6-month long GNSS PWV experiments using international and domestic GNSS networks. In the real-time GNSS PWV monitoring system a server/client structure is employed to facilitate formation of PWV networks and single-differenced GNSS measurements are utilized to mitigate errors in GNSS satellites’ orbits and clocks. An issue relating to baseline length between the server and clients is discussed in detail and as a result the PWV monitor is configured to perform in two modes depending on the baseline length. The server estimates sequentially the zenith wet delay of the individual stations, which is then converted into the PWV of the stations. We evaluate system performance by comparing the real-time PWV solution with reference solutions including meteorological measurements obtained with radiosondes and deferred-time precision GNSS PWV solutions. Results showed that the standard deviation of difference between the real-time PWV and the reference solutions ranged from 2.1 to 3.4 mm in PWV for a 6-month long comparison, which was improved to 1.4 to 2.9 mm by reducing comparison period to 20 days in winter.     

“传统”农业景观旅游保护困局的反思（英文）

全球范围对"文化景观"重新燃起兴趣需要从多维方式来解释。传统栖息地,人民和他们在特殊环境里的生活方式的价值改变过程是和与遗产地有关的"文化、社会和经济建设"的引入密不可分的。自上世纪90年代开始,文化景观作为一种新型遗产列入联合国教科文组织世界遗产名录,它强调人类与环境相互作用的重要性,需要了解景观在时空上的动态性。观念的变化产生了对标志性景观和传统社区的"动态保护"。从交叉学科的视角来理解这一交互过程对规划和保护可持续遗产景观至关重要。遍及全世界的各试点项目和案例研究都引起了关于遗产景观的可持续性和旅游的至高无上作用的批判性反思。全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)能否受益于旅游产生的经济资源,需要基于研究的方法来分析机会和预期,评估其战略政策和自上而下的政策。     

Cost–benefit analysis of climate change dynamics: uncertainties and the value of information

We analyze climate change in a cost–benefit framework, using the emission and concentration profiles of Wigley et al. (Nature 379(6562):240–243, 1996). They present five scenarios that cover the period 1990–2300 and are designed to reach stabilized concentration levels of 350, 450, 550, 650 and 750 ppmv, respectively. We assume that the damage cost in each year t is proportional to the corresponding gross world product and the square of the atmospheric temperature increase (ΔT(t)). The latter is estimated with a simple two-box model (representing the atmosphere and deep ocean). Coupling the damage cost with the abatement cost, we interpolate between the five scenarios to find the one that is optimal in the sense of minimizing the sum of discounted annual (abatement plus damage) costs over a time horizon of N years. Our method is simpler than ‘traditional’ models with the same purpose, and thus allows for a more transparent sensitivity study with respect to the uncertainties of all parameters involved. We report our central result in terms of the stabilized emission level E _o and concentration level p _o (i.e. their values at t = 300 years) of the optimal scenario. For the central parameter values (that is, N = 150 years, a discount rate r _dis = 2%/year and a growth rate r _gro = 1%/year of gross world product) we find E _o  = 8.0 GtCO₂/year and p _o = 496 ppmv. Varying the parameters over a wide range, we find that the optimal emission level remains within a remarkably narrow range, from about 6.0 to 12 GtCO₂/year for all plausible parameter values. To assess the significance of the uncertainties we focus on the social cost penalty, defined as the extra cost incurred by society relative to the optimum if one makes the wrong choice of the emission level as a result of erroneous damage and abatement cost estimates. In relative terms the cost penalty turns out to be remarkably insensitive to errors. For example, if the true damage costs are three times larger or smaller than the estimate, the total social cost of global climate change increases by less than 20% above its minimum at the true optimal emission level. Because of the enormous magnitude of the total costs involved with climate change (mitigation), however, even a small relative error implies large additional expenses in absolute terms. To evaluate the benefit of reducing cost uncertainties, we plot the cost penalty as function of the uncertainty in relative damage and abatement costs, expressed as geometric standard deviation and standard deviation respectively. If continued externality analysis reduces the geometric standard deviation of relative damage cost estimates from 5 to 4, the benefit is 0.05% of the present value G _tot of total gross word product over 150 years (about $3.9 × 10¹⁵), and if further research reduces the standard deviation of relative abatement costs from 1 to 0.5, the benefit is 0.03% of G _tot .     

Discrimination test between the Halphen (A and B) and the gamma distributions

Hydrological frequency analysis is the most widely used method to estimate risk for extreme values. The most used statistical distributions to fit extreme value data in hydrology can be regrouped in three classes: class C of regularly varying distributions, class D of sub exponential and class E, Exponential depending on their tail behavior. The Halphen distributions (Halphen type A (HA), Halphen type B (HB)) are separated by the Gamma distribution; these three distributions belong to class D and can be displayed in the (δ₁, δ₂) moment-ratio diagram. In this study, a statistical test for discriminating between HA, HB and the Gamma distribution is developed. The methodology is based on: (1) the generation of N samples of different sizes n around the Gamma curve; (2) the determination of the confidence zones around the Gamma curve for each fixed couple (δ₁, δ₂) moment-ratios and finally; (3) the study of the power of the test developed and the calculation of the type 2 error β and the power of the test which is 1-β for a fixed significance level α. Results showed that the test is powerful especially for high coefficients of skewness. This test will be included in Decision Support System of the HYFRAN-PLUS software.     

Manganese fluxes from Mississippi Delta sediments

Massive sediment deposition on the Mississippi River Delta establishes reducing conditions sufficient to bring about Mn dissolution in the top millimeters of sediment. As a result, significant fluxes of dissolved Mn pass from the Delta sediments to the overlying water column. This process is examined by study of chemical partitioning of Mn in river particulates and Delta sediments and from interstitial water chemistry. Remobilized Mn is actively transported away from the Delta area with aluminosilicate detritus thereby providing “excess” Mn to the deep Gulf of Mexico at the expense of the Delta sediments.