Derivation of streamflow statistics based on a filtered point process

This work presents the derivation of general streamflow cumulants from daily rainfall time series. The general streamflow cumulants can be used to compute basic streamflow statistics such as mean, variance, coefficient of skewness, and correlation coefficient. Streamflow is considered as a filtered point process where the input is a daily rainfall time series assumed to be a marked point process. The marks of the process are the daily rainfall amounts which are assumed independent and identically distributed. The number of rainfall occurrences is a counting process represented by either the binomial, the Poisson, or the negative binomial probability distribution depending on its ratio of mean to variance. The first three cumulants and the covariance function of J-day averaged streamflows are deduced based on the characteristic function of a filtered point process. These cumulants are functions of the stochastic properties of the daily rainfall process and the basin-response function representing the causal relationship between rainfall and runoff.     

Retrospective multivariate Bayesian change-point analysis: A simultaneous single change in the mean of several hydrological sequences

Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the mean-vector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the first one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to streamflow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Québec Labrador region.     

Designing policy for deployment of CCS in industry

Attaining deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in industry in order to support a stringent climate change control target will be difficult without recourse to CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). Using the insights from a long-term bottom-up energy systems model, and undertaking a sectoral assessment, we investigated the importance of CCS in the industrial sector. Under climate policy aimed at limiting atmospheric concentration of GHGs to 650 ppm CO₂e, costs could increase fivefold when CCS is excluded from the portfolio of mitigation option measures in the industry sector as compared to when CCS is excluded in the power sector. This effect is driven largely by the lack of alternatives for deep emission reductions in industry. Our main policy conclusion is that a broader recognition of CCS in industrial applications in both current policy discussions and research, development, and demonstration funding programmes is justified. In recognition of the heterogeneity of the many types of industrial production processes, the size and location of industrial CO₂ sources, the specific need for CCS-retrofitting, and the exposure of most industrial sectors to international trade, policies aimed at supporting CCS must distinguish between the different challenges faced by the power and industrial sectors.     

The fall of the St-Robert meteorite

Abstract The St-Robert (Québec, Canada) meteorite shower occurred on 1994 June 15 at 0h02m UT accompanied by detonations audible for >200 km from the fireball endpoint. The fireball was recorded by visual observers in Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Québec and Ontario as well as by optical and infrared sensors in Earth-orbit. Penetration to an altitude of 36 km occurred ～60 km to the northeast of Montreal, where the bolide experienced several episodes of fragmentation. A total of 20 fragments of this H5 chondrite, comprising a total mass of 25.4 kg, were recovered in an ellipse measuring 8 × 3.5 km. One fragment of the shower partially penetrated the aluminum roof of a shed. Interpretation of the visual and satellite data suggests that the fireball traveled from south-southwest to north-northeast, with a slope from the horizontal of 55°–61°. A statistical evaluation of the likely heliocentric orbits for the body prior to collision with the Earth, coupled with theoretical modeling of the entry, suggests an entry velocity in the range of 12.7–13.3 km/s; the meteoroid had moved in a low-inclination orbit, with orbital perihelion located extremely close to the Earth's orbit. From satellite optical data, it is found that the photometric mass consumed during the largest detonation is ～1200 kg. Estimation of the amplitude of the acoustic signal detected by the most distant observer yields a source energy near 0.5 kt TNT equivalent energy, which corresponds to a mass of order 10 metric tonnes. This measure is uncertain to approximately one order of magnitude. Theoretical modeling of the entry of the object suggests a mass near 1600 kg. Cosmogenic radionuclide activities constrain the lower initial mass to be ～700 kg with an upper limit near 4000 kg. Seismic data possibly associated with the fireball suggest extremely poor coupling between the airwave and the ground. The total mass estimated to have reached the ground is ～100 kg (in material comprising >55 g fragments), while the preatmospheric mass is found to be most probably in the range of 1200–2000 kg.     

Return migration of 1.5 generation Korean New Zealanders: Short‐term and long‐term motives

Through in‐depth interviews and participant observation with 40 1.5 generation Korean New Zealander returnees, we explore life trajectories and identify both short‐ and long‐term reasons for return. Short‐term reasons for return include moving home when entering adulthood in order to begin a career, gaining new experiences and finding a future spouse. Longer term influences include the difficulties of living as minority‐status immigrants in the host society, transnational connections and a longing for a sense of ‘home’. Our consideration of longer term migration strategies sheds light upon the often forgotten difficulties and complexities that can underlie an individual's return.     

CLAIRE: First light for a gamma-ray lens

The objective of the R&D project CLAIRE was to prove the principle of a gamma-ray lens for nuclear astrophysics. CLAIRE's Laue diffraction lens has a diameter of 45 cm and a focal length of 277 cm; 556 germanium-silicon crystals are tuned to focus 170 keV photons onto a 1.5 cm diameter focal spot. Laboratory measurements of the individual crystals and the entire lens have been used to validate a numerical model that we use to estimate the lens performance for a source at infinity. During a stratospheric balloon flight on 2001 June 14, CLAIRE was directed at the Crab nebula by a pointing system able to stabilize the lens to within a few arcseconds of the target. In 72 min of valid pointing time, 33 photons from the Crab were detected in the 3 keV bandpass of the lens: CLAIRE's first light! The performance of CLAIRE's gamma-ray lens, namely the peak reflectivity for a polychromatic source (9±1%), has been confirmed by ground data obtained on a 205 meter long test range. CLAIRE's measured performance validates the principle of a Laue lens for nuclear astrophysics, opening the way for a space-borne gamma-ray lens telescope that will achieve one to two orders of magnitude improvement in sensitivity over present technologies.     

Model for radon diffusion through the lunar regolith

A model for radon diffusion through the lunar regolith is proposed in which the atom migrates by random walk. The regolith is represented by a system of randomly oriented baffles in which the mean distanced which the atom travels between two collisions takes on the role of a mean free path. The effective mean time between two collisions depends on two entities: the actual mean time-of-flight and the mean sticking time on grain surfaces for one collision. The latter depends strongly on the temperature and the heat of adsorption of radon on regolith materials. Bothd (mean free path) as well asQ (heat of adsorption) are either poorly known or unknown for the lunar regolith; hence these quantities are treated as free parameters. Because of the greatly different mean lifetimes against radioactive decay of²¹⁹Rn,²²⁰Rn, and²²²Rn, the regolith acts as a powerful filter for these species.²²²Rn escape is significant (32%) even ford = 1µ,Q = 7.0 kcal/mole and a regolith depth of 4 m. Calculations of radon escape from a 4 m thick regolith, usingd = 1, 10 and 80µ andQ = 4.0, 5.2 and 7.0 kcal/mole show that the²²²Rn/²²⁰Rn escape ratio can be as small as 7.7 and as large as, or larger than 47. The small value of 7.7 is of particular interest, because it is nearly equal to the escape ratio inferred by Turkevichet al. from their Surveyor 5 results.