Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aggregate settling velocity of combined sewage overflow

In order to better model the fate and transport of material in a combined sewer overflow (CSO), hydrologic and geochemical measurements were made during a storm event in Flushing Bay, NY, USA. Particle size, total suspended solids concentrations, and CSO solid density are used to calculate the settling velocity of aggregates of the CSO material. Roughly half of the material that is discharged from the outfall sinks rapidly to the bottom, while the other half forms a turbid surface plume in fresher water. The dry solid density of the CSO material was 1589 kg m(-3) and the volume fraction of solid material to total aggregate volume ranged from 0.1 to 1.0. The settling velocity estimates of aggregated material in the surface plume ranged from about 0.5 to 9.0 mm s(-1) with a median settling velocity of 2.9 mm s(-1). A strong inverse relationship between the size of the aggregates and the aggregate density resulted in a fractal dimension of the aggregates of 2.3.     

Australian conservation organisations' perspectives on tourism in national parks: a critique

Australia's conservation and parks organisations have become actively involved in the debate over tourism use of national parks and their associated wilderness areas. To date, at least seven organisations have produced at least ten formal policy statements and submissions. This paper presents an analysis of these policy statements.The policies reviewed use a narrow definition of tourism, based on the presence or absence of commercial, private sector activity. If commercial activity exists, then tourism exists; if not, then it is considered to be recreation. This distinction reflects the widely held opinion among many environmentalists that non-commercial use of national parks is acceptable, but that commercial use is essentially unacceptable, even though the groups may be participating in the same activity. The author argues that while making a number of valuable suggestions, these policies suffer from major conceptual flaws that minimise their contribution to the debate on acceptable human uses of parks.The author concludes by making a number of recommendations to rectify the conceptual flaws inherent in the policies.     

Low pressure radon diffusion: a laboratory study and its implications for lunar venting

Results of a study of radon migration through columns of fine particulate materials, at total pressures of 2–20 × 10^?2 torr, are reported. Materials studied were: NBS Glass Spheres (SRM 1003), Emerson & Cuming Eccospheres (IG-101), activated coconut charcoal, Lipari obsidian, and W-1 Standard Diabase. Rates of diffusion were used to derive heats of adsorption for radon on the materials tested. The most reliable values found clustered around 8–9 kcal/mole.These high heats of adsorption, if typical for most materials, combined with low percentages of radon emanation by lunar soils found by other researchers, imply that random walk diffusion will not be an important mechanism for redistributing the radon and the radon daughters produced in the lunar regolith. In particular, since random walk migration is not a sufficient mechanism to account for localized high concentrations of radon-222 and its daughter polonium-210 observed by the Apollo 15 and 16 command modules, an alternative mechanism is proposed, in which radon would be swept to the surface by other gases during intermittent venting events.     

A hypothesis on the locations of lunar gas venting

Both lunar transient phenomena and ²²²Rn/²¹⁰Po anomalies observed by Apollo-15 and -16 orbital alpha spectrometers display preferences for certain kinds of locations: rims of circular maria and craters with central peaks and/or dark floors. If these classes of observations are due to lunar gas venting, why are these types of locations preferred? The hypothesis offered is that these are locations at which cracks or channels exist extending deep enough into the moon to tap lunar volatile reservoirs. Possible channels include circumferential cracks around circular maria, old lava tubes for dark-floor and volcanic central peak craters, and shattered subsurface rock structure for impact central peak craters.     

Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods

The catastrophic floods recently occurring in Europe warn of the critical need forhydrologic data on floods over long-time scales. Palaeoflood techniques provideinformation on hydrologic variability and extreme floods over long-time intervals(100 to 10,000 yr) and may be used in combination with historical flood data (last1,000 yr) and the gauge record (last 30–50 yr). In this paper, advantages anduncertainties related to the reconstruction of palaeofloods in different geomorphologicalsettings and historical floods using different documentary sources are described.Systematic and non-systematic data can be combined in the flood frequency analysisusing different methods for the adjustment of distribution functions. Technical toolsintegrating multidisciplinary approaches (geologic, historical, hydraulic and statistical)on extreme flood risk assessment are discussed. A discussion on the potential theoreticalbases for solving the problem of dealing with non-systematic and non-stationary data ispresented. This methodology is being developed using new methodological approachesapplied to European countries as a part of a European Commission funded project (SPHERE).     

Sounding the dark cosmos

Bruce Bassett, Bob Nichol and Daniel J Eisenstein explain why the Wide-Field Multi-Object Spectrograph will need to look so far into the universe, over such a wide area, in order to map sound waves from the dawn of time.     

Rural women and technology in South Africa: Case studies from KwaZulu-Natal Province

This article contributes to a greater understanding of the linkages between women's roles, responsibilities and their use of technology in poor rural communities. The ways in which poor rural women conceptualize technology is examined. Furthermore, how they use their knowledge and skills to develop, modify and adapt the techniques and technical processes in which they are involved are also explored. Additionally, the links between indigenous and modern technologies in relation to gender considerations in poor rural contexts are examined. This article draws from findings of primary research undertaken in two marginalized rural communities in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. The study reveals that the use of technologies are highly gendered and differentiated among women. Poor rural women utilize a range of technologies in both productive and reproductive activities which are central to their livelihood strategies, especially at the household level. Furthermore, although women are adapting and innovating technologies their expertise remains largely unrecognized. A range of problems and constraints exist which limit women's access to and use of technologies. A key tension identified in the study is that between the use of locally-based, indigenous technologies and modern, external technologies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.