预应力混凝土渡槽抗震性能的试验研究

基于预应力混凝土渡槽的低周反复荷载试验,对其受力过程、破坏形态、滞回曲线、刚度退化、耗能能力等抗震性能进行了研究与分析。试验结果表明：预应力混凝土渡槽的破坏形态为弯剪破坏,滞回曲线在加载的初期阶段表现出一定的捏拢效应,滞回曲线总体呈明显的梭形,且较为丰满,耗能能力强,抗震性能优良;配筋合适的预应力混凝土渡槽在加载初期对裂缝控制具有良好的表现,渡槽整体具有良好的延性;在整个加载过程中,渡槽试件的刚度退化明显,刚度退化主要集中在开裂后至屈服这一阶段。     

东北冷涡南落型强对流天气的潜势预报分析

通过2005-2008年4-6月Micaps资料,查找500 hPa东北有冷涡,500 hPa和700 hPa江苏境内为大片的西北气流,当天午后到夜里出现强对流天气的若干典型个例,借助Micaps系统通过对一些个例的物理量资料分析,得出它们共同的发生强对流天气的机理;同时还分析得出诊断该类对流天气的不太适合使用的物理量和较适合使用的物理量;并分析个例的大气探空层结曲线,得出它们的对流层结与其它类型的区别,并剖析它们的一日转变情况;同时用Q矢量锋生函数方法分析,发现低层强锋生区域与强对流天气区域有较好的对应关系,锋生函数正值中心区域常出现个别站龙卷或大范围冰雹.     

二郎山公路隧道岩爆特征与预测研究

根据二郎山公路隧道施工中记录的200多次岩爆资料,总结隧道的岩爆特征,并采用"地质超前预报法"和"σθ/Rb判据现场测定预测法"两种方法,对岩爆预测问题进行有益探讨.     

Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

地震信息对薄砂岩储层特性的描述

近年来,以地震信息为主进行油气藏描述,这是当前对石油勘探的重点攻关课题.本文结合我国陆上和海域部分油田或含油气构造的实际资料,运用地震信息为主,结合测井、地质及钻井等资料,对储层进行综合解释。同时,提出了用多地震信息计算薄层厚度的基本公式,根据地区性岩性和地震资料的差异,使用了确定性地质统计和Coringing分析两种方法进行储层物性参数的预测,文中给出大量的实例说明各种储层参数描述方法和应用效果。     

Lunar capture in the planar restricted three-body problem

The capture dynamics is an important field in Astronomy and Astronautics. In this paper, the near-optimal lunar capture in the Earth–Moon transfer is investigated under the frame of the planar circular restricted three-body problem. We try to work out how to achieve the permanent lunar capture with the minimum maneuver consumption. This problem is decomposed into two parts: the pre-maneuver part and the post-maneuver part. In the pre-maneuver part, considering the criteria of the gravitational capture, we obtain the minimum pre-maneuver velocity via the numerical backward integration. In the post-maneuver part, using the Poincaré section and the KAM theory, we find the maximum post-maneuver velocity to achieve the permanent capture. Synthesized the results of the two parts, a new method is presented to find the near-optimal maneuver position and the minimum maneuver consumption. The method presented is simple and visible, and can provide abundant capture orbits for the design of low energy Earth–Moon transfers.     

新疆北山小常山铁矿矿物电子探针分析及矿床成因探讨

小常山铁矿位于新疆北山裂谷带西段,矿体赋存于辉长岩、辉长岩和大理岩接触带中,部分赋存于花岗闪长岩和大理岩接触带。前人研究辉长岩年龄为276±1.2Ma,与坡北铜镍硫化物岩浆矿床形成年龄一致,同属早二叠世。小常山铁矿中可见有明显的岩浆贯入现象。矿体主要呈透镜状、块状、脉状、薄层状。金属矿物主要为磁铁矿,含极少量的褐铁矿和黄铁矿;近矿围岩蚀变较弱,主要有石榴子石化、绿帘石化、大理岩化。电子探针研究表明,磁铁矿FeOT含量范围较大,主要分布在85%范围以上,Al_2O_3含量相对较高,TiO_2-Al_2O_3-(MgO+MnO)图解、TiO_2-Al_2O_3-MgO图解均显示热液接触交代成因特点,表明小常山铁矿的形成和岩浆热液的交代作用有关。石榴子石属于钙铝榴石-钙铁榴石系列,与典型矽卡岩矿床的石榴子石端员组分组成有一定差别。结合小常山铁矿体地质特征以及电子探针分析测试等研究,认为小常山铁矿是多成因的复合型矿床,具有岩浆成因和热液成因特征,但后者是主要成因。     

Study on electric variations of media in epicentral area by geomagnetic transfer functions

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Prediction of tropical cyclone frequency with a wavelet neural network model incorporating natural orthogonal expansion and combined weights

A nonlinear wavelet neural network (WNN) model with natural orthogonal expansion (NOE) and combined weights is constructed to predict the annual frequency of tropical cyclones (TCF) occurring over the coastal regions of Southern China. Combined weights are obtained by calculating categorical weights, based on the particle swarm projection pursuit, and ranking weights, based on fuzzy mathematics, followed by optimization. The global monthly mean heights at 500?hPa and sea-surface temperature fields are used as two predictors. The linear and nonlinear information of the predictors with reduced dimensions is gathered through the NOE and combined weights, respectively, and treated as the input into the WNN model. This model is first trained with the 55-year (i.e., 1950?C2004) TCF data and then used to predict annual TCFs for the subsequent 5?years (i.e., 2005?C2009). Results show that the mean absolute and relative errors are 0.6175 and 9.34?%, respectively. The impacts of the combined weights, NOE and WNN as well as the traditional multi-regression approach on the TCF prediction are examined. Results show superior performance of the WNN-based model in the annual TCF prediction.