Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimators of streamflow statistics are critical to the design, planning, and management of water resources. Given increasing evidence of trends in low-streamflow, new approaches to estimating low-streamflow statistics are needed. Here we investigate simple approaches to select a recent subset of the low-flow record to update the commonly used statistic of 7Q10, the annual minimum 7-day streamflow exceeded in 9 out of 10 years on average. Informed by low-streamflow records at 174 US Geological Survey streamgages, Monte Carlo simulation experiments evaluate competing approaches. We find that a strategy which estimates 7Q10 using the most recent 30 years of record when a trend is detected, reduces error and bias in 7Q10 estimators compared to use of the full record. This simple rule-based approach has potential as the basis for a framework for updating frequency-based statistics in the context of possible trends.     

Free collisions in a microgravity many-particle experiment. I. Dust aggregate sticking at low velocities

Over the past years the processes involved in the growth of planetesimals have extensively been studied in the laboratory. Based on these experiments, a dust-aggregate collision model was developed upon which computer simulations were based to evaluate how big protoplanetary dust aggregates can grow and to analyze which kinds of collisions are relevant in the solar nebula and are worth further studies in the laboratory. The sticking threshold velocity of millimeter-sized dust aggregates is one such critical value that have so far only theoretically been derived, as the relevant velocities could not be reached in the laboratory. We developed a microgravity experiment that allows us for the first time to study free collisions of mm-sized dust aggregates down to velocities of ～0.1 cm s^?1 to assess this part of the protoplanetary dust evolution model. Here, we present the results of 125 free collisions between dust aggregates of 0.5–2 mm diameter. Seven collisions with velocities between 0.2 and 3 cm s^?1 led to sticking, suggesting a transition from perfect sticking to perfect bouncing with a certain sticking probability instead of a sharp velocity threshold. We developed a model to explain the physical processes involved in dust-aggregate sticking, derived dynamical material properties of the dust aggregates from the results of the collisions, and deduced the velocity below which dust aggregates always stick. For millimeter-sized porous dust aggregates this velocity is 8 × 10^?5 m s^?1.     

An Experimental Study on the Structure of Cosmic Dust Aggregates and Their Alignment by Motion Relative to Gas

We present infrared spectroscopy of the Antennae galaxies (NGC 4038/9) with the near-infrared spectrometer (NIRSPEC) at the W. M. Keck Observatory. We imaged the star clusters in the vicinity of the southern nucleus (NGC 4039) with 0&farcs;39 seeing in the K band using NIRSPEC's slit-viewing camera. The brightest star cluster revealed in the near-IR [MK&parl0;0&parr0; approximately -17.9] is insignificant optically but is coincident with the highest surface brightness peak in the mid-IR (12-18 μm) Infrared Space Observatory image presented by Mirabel et al. We obtained high signal-to-noise ratio 2.03-2.45 μm spectra of the nucleus and the obscured star cluster at R approximately 1900. The cluster is very young ( approximately 4 Myr), massive (M approximately 16x106 M middle dot in circle), and compact (with a density of approximately 115 M middle dot in circle pc-3 within a 32 pc half-light radius), assuming a Salpeter initial mass function (0.1-100 M middle dot in circle). Its hot stars have a radiation field characterized by Teff approximately 39,000 K, and they ionize a compact H ii region with ne approximately 104 cm-3. The stars are deeply embedded in gas and dust (AV approximately 9-10 mag), and their strong far-ultraviolet field powers a clumpy photodissociation region with densities nH greater, similar105 cm-3 on scales of approximately 200 pc, radiating LH21-0S&parl0;1&parr0;=9600 L middle dot in circle.     

Fatal landslides in Europe

Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20  years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property.     

Photosynthesis and respiration ofSpartina andJuncus salt marshes in North Carolina: Some models

In situ ecosystem gas exchange measurements were taken monthly for a 15-month period during low tide forJuncus roemerianus Scheele and short, medium, and tall height forms ofSpartina alterniflora Loisel. in three salt marshes near Southport, North Carolina. Multiple regression analysis was used to obtain empirical relationships betwen gas exchange values and the physical and biotic variables measured. Preliminary models for net ecosystem photosynthesis, ecosystem respiration, and respiration of aboveground standing crop were developed. Validation of models was carried out in the following manner: (1) net primary productivity of aboveground standing crop was calculated from model data and compared with harvest estimates of net primary productivity for the same year; and (2) carbon exchange and energy efficiency values were compared with literature values. In general, theSpartina models, because of their larger data base, were more useful than theJuncus models. Annual primary productivity of aboveground standing crop calculated from gas exchange values was 1.8 to 3.6 times greater forSpartian than values calculated from harvest data by Smalley's method.Juncus values were approximately equal. Since values calculated from carbon data and harvest data are not entirely equivalent, required adjustments to the carbon values are discussed. Both species have two growth periods—one in ths pring and one in the fall—with the spring growth in excess of that in the fall. Net ecosystem productivity was highest in the spring and lowest in the summer. Ecosystem respiration amounted to 71% of gross annual photosynthesis. The aboveground standing crop contributed approximately 35% to this ecosystem respiration and the soil, the remaining 36%. Efficiency for gross photosynthesis per unit of solar radiation ranged from 0.22 to 1.11%. Efficiencies for net primary production of aboveground standing crop ranged from 0 to 0.82% and those of net ecosystem production from 0 to 0.56%.     

Hydrothermal silica chimney fields in the Galapagos Spreading Center at 86°W

Silica chimneys were discovered in 1985 at 86°W in the rift valley of the Galapagos Spreading Center at 2600 m depth (“Cauliflower Garden”). The inactive chimneys lack any sulfides and consist almost entirely of amorphous silica (up to 96 wt.% SiO₂, opal-A); Fe and Mn oxides are minor constituents. Oxygen isotope data show that formation of the silica chimneys took place at temperatures between 32°C (+29.9‰ δ¹⁸O) and 42°C (+27.8‰ δ¹⁸O).Th/Udating reveals a maximum age of 1440 ± 300y. Amorphous silica solubility relations indicate that the silica chimneys were formed by conductive cooling of pure hydrothermal fluids or by conductive cooling of a fluid/seawater mixture. Assuming equilibrium with quartz at 500 bars, initial fluid temperatures of more than 175°C (i.e., a concentration of > 182 ppm SiO₂) were required to achieve sufficient supersaturation for the deposition of amorphous silica at 40°C and 260 bars. If the silica chimneys originate from the same or a similar fluid as higher-temperature ( < 300°C) sulfide-silica precipitates found nearby (i.e., 2.5 km away), then subsurface deposition of sulfides may have occurred.     

Signatures of climate vs. sea-level change within incised valley-fill successions: Quaternary examples from the Texas GULF Coast

The passive margin Texas Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain consists of coalescing late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial–deltaic plains constructed by a series of medium to large fluvial systems. Alluvial–deltaic plains consist of the Pleistocene Beaumont Formation, and post-Beaumont coastal plain incised valleys. A variety of mapping, outcrop, core, and geochronological data from the extrabasinal Colorado River and the basin-fringe Trinity River show that Beaumont and post-Beaumont strata consist of a series of coastal plain incised valley fills that represent 100 kyr climatic and glacio-eustatic cycles.

Valley fills contain a complex alluvial architecture. Falling stage to lowstand systems tracts consist of multiple laterally amalgamated sandy channelbelts that reflect deposition within a valley that was incised below highstand alluvial plains, and extended across a subaerially-exposed shelf. The lower boundary to falling stage and lowstand units comprises a composite valley fill unconformity that is time-transgressive in both cross- and down-valley directions. Coastal plain incised valleys began to fill with transgression and highstand, and landward translation of the shoreline: paleosols that define the top of falling stage and lowstand channelbelts were progressively onlapped and buried by heterolithic sandy channelbelt, sandy and silty crevasse channel and splay, and muddy floodbasin strata. Transgressive to highstand facies-scale architecture reflects changes through time in dominant styles of avulsion, and follows a predictable succession through different stages of valley filling. Complete valley filling promoted avulsion and the large-scale relocation of valley axes before the next sea-level fall, such that successive 100 kyr valley fills show a distributary pattern.

Basic elements within coastal plain valleys can be correlated with the record offshore, where cross-shelf valleys have been described from seismic data. Falling stage to lowstand channelbelts within coastal plain valleys were feeder systems for shelf-phase and shelf-margin deltas, respectively, and demonstrate that falling stage fluvial deposits are important valley fill components. Signatures of both upstream climate change vs. downstream sea-level controls are therefore interpreted to be present within incised valley fills. Signatures of climate change consist of the downstream continuity of major stratigraphic units and component facies, which extends from the mixed bedrock–alluvial valley of the eroding continental interior to the distal reaches, wherever that may be at the time. This continuity suggests the development of stratigraphic units and facies is strongly coupled to upstream controls on sediment supply and climate conditions within hinterland source regions. Signatures of sea-level change are critical as well: sea-level fall below the elevation of highstand depositional shoreline breaks results in channel incision and extension across the newly emergent shelf, which in turn results in partitioning of the 100 kyr coastal plain valleys. Moreover, deposits and key surfaces can be traced from continental interiors to the coastal plain, but there are downstream changes in geometric relations that correspond to the transition between the mixed bedrock–alluvial valley and the coastal plain incised valley. Channel incision and extension during sea-level fall and lowstand, with channel shortening and delta backstepping during transgression, controls the architecture of coastal plain and cross-shelf incised valley fills.     

Multiple states in the sea-level induced transition from terrestrial forest to estuary

In this paper we provide a conceptual model to examine changes in ecosystem state during the transition from terrestrial forest to shallow estuarine environments for coastal mainland marshes at the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR), United States of America. Ecosystem states are characterized by plant community dominants and soil/sediment characteristics. The five states considered are upland or wetland forest, organic high marsh, intertidal mineral low marsh, autotrophic benthic with or without submersed aquatic vascular plants, and heterotrophic benthic (estuarine bottom). Transitions between states are described from the perspective of a fixed forest location undergoing transition from one ecosystem state to another. Rising sea level is acknowledged as the master variable that forces the process of change overall. Each state is hypothesized to have self-maintaining properties and thus is resistant to change from rising sea level; alternatively, transitions between states are facilitated by disturbance or exposure to acute stress. For change to occur, resistance must be overcome by events that are more abrupt than rising sea level and that appear as accentuated pulsings, which result in another self-maintaining and resistnnt state. Such events facilitate plant species replacement and alter sediment conditions. Mechanisms responsible for causing a state to cross a threshold are unique for each transition type and include brackish-water intrusion (osmotic stress and sulfide toxicity), tidal creek encroachment (redistribution of sediments), erosive currents and waves (resuspension of sediments, which increases light extinction), and increasing water depth (leads to greater bottom shading). Field experiments relevant to scales at which pulsings occur are not abundant in coastal marshes.