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We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (Tmin) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced Tmin is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed Tmin anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 Tmin anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the Tmin forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.
相似文献
r- r0 = 184.0 10 6 2 + 1.0 4 70 8*\textS - 1. 2 10 6 1*\textT + 3. 1 4 7 2 1 \textE - 4*\textS 2 + 0.00 1 9 9 \textT 2 - 0.00 1 1 2*\textS*\textT, \rho - \rho^{0} = { 184}.0 10 6 2 { } + { 1}.0 4 70 8*{\text{S}} - 1. 2 10 6 1*{\text{T }} + { 3}. 1 4 7 2 1 {\text{E}} - 4*{\text{S}}^{ 2} + \, 0.00 1 9 9 {\text{T}}^{ 2} - 0.00 1 1 2*{\text{S}}*{\text{T}}, 相似文献
17.
18.
D. P. Blair 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1993,17(2):95-118
It is becoming increasingly important, from an environmental viewpoint, to minimize vibrations induced in urban dwellings by blasting. The present study illustrates how the delay interval between blastholes can be chosen to control and minimize the vibration energy within the structural response band of most houses. In particular, it is shown that the only possibility of reducing such energy is to employ a delay interval in the range 10–35 ms. However, the induced vibrations are also dependent upon the accuracy of the delay initiators as well as the level of random fluctuations between each blasthole signature. It is shown that only very accurate electronic delays give the possibility of utilizing fully the delay sequence in order to control structural vibrations. If the vibration emission from each blasthole is totally uncorrelated with that of any other blasthole then the resulting amplitude spectrum of the blast will be totally unpredictable. This situation occurs irrespective of the delay initiation sequence or its accuracy. Under these conditions it is impossible to predict the blast-induced energy lying within the structural response band. 相似文献
19.
D. P. Blair L. W. Armstrong 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2001,5(1):108-129
There is a common belief within the blasting community that increasing the burden will increase the blast vibration. In order to test this belief in a direct sense, it would be desirable to fire single blastholes with various burdens and monitor the vibrations at many locations. A review of past literature indicates that such direct tests are rare and only scant data is available. Nevertheless, a detailed analysis of this and associated past work (on small-scale blocks and choke blasts) shows no convincing evidence of an influence of burden on blast vibration. On the other hand, by considering the role of reflected waves in a simple analytical model, reasoning is given to show that the vibration might well be insensitive to burden. In view of the scant data available, it was decided to conduct trials of a direct nature, in which 13 single blastholes were fired to a free face. The burdens chosen were 2.6 m, 5.2 m and 10.4 m, and the vibration was measured at typically 10 locations over the range 5 m to 50 m from each hole. The results clearly show that the vibration is independent of such burdens. Furthermore, a side-by-side comparison of a choke blast with a free-face blast showed that the vibration from the holes in the choke blast was not higher than the vibration from the holes in the free-face blast. The present work also shows that vibration, although insensitive to burden, is not insensitive to the condition (i.e., the degree of damage) of the surrounding rock mass. In this regard, blastholes in undamaged ground produce a significantly higher vibration than blastholes in damaged ground. This might well be the reason why pre splits and drop-cuts are observed to produce relatively high vibrations, i.e., it is not because such blasts typically involve large burdens, but rather that they are usually initiated in relatively undamaged ground. 相似文献
20.
M. Angeles García Del Cura Jose P. Calvo Salvador Ordóñez Blair F. Jones & Juan C. Cañaveras 《Sedimentology》2001,48(4):897-915
Upper Pliocene dolomites (‘white earth’) from La Roda, Spain, offer a good opportunity to evaluate the process of dolomite formation in lakes. The relatively young nature of the deposits could allow a link between dolomites precipitated in modern lake systems and those present in older lacustrine formations. The La Roda Mg‐carbonates (dolomite unit) occur as a 3·5‐ to 4‐m‐thick package of poorly indurated, white, massive dolomite beds with interbedded thin deposits of porous carbonate displaying root and desiccation traces as well as local lenticular gypsum moulds. The massive dolomite beds consist mainly of loosely packed 1‐ to 2‐μm‐sized aggregates of dolomite crystals exhibiting poorly developed faces, which usually results in a subrounded morphology of the crystals. Minute rhombs of dolomite are sparse within the aggregates. Both knobbly textures and clumps of spherical bodies covering the crystal surfaces indicate that bacteria were involved in the formation of the dolomites. In addition, aggregates of euhedral dolomite crystals are usually present in some more clayey (sepiolite) interbeds. The thin porous carbonate (mostly dolomite) beds exhibit both euhedral and subrounded, bacterially induced dolomite crystals. The carbonate is mainly Ca‐dolomite (51–54 mol% CaCO3), showing a low degree of ordering (degree of ordering ranges from 0·27 to 0·48). Calcite is present as a subordinate mineral in some samples. Sr, Mn and Fe contents show very low correlation coefficients with Mg/Ca ratios, whereas SiO2 and K contents are highly correlated. δ18O‐ and δ13C‐values in dolomites range from ?3·07‰ to 5·40‰ PDB (mean=0·06, σ=1·75) and from ?6·34‰ to ?0·39‰ PDB (mean=?3·55, σ=1·33) respectively. Samples containing significant amounts of both dolomite and calcite do not in general show significant enrichment or depletion in 18O and 13C between the two minerals. The correlation coefficient between δ18O and δ13C for dolomite is extremely low and negative (r=?0·05), whereas it is higher and positive (r=0·47) for calcite. The lacustrine dolomite deposit from La Roda is interpreted mainly as a result of primary precipitation of dolomite in a shallow, hydrologically closed perennial lake. The lake was supplied by highly saturated HCO3?/CO32? groundwater that leached dolomitic Mesozoic formations. Precipitation of dolomite from alkaline lake waters took place under a semi‐arid to arid climate. However, according to our isotopic data, strong evaporative conditions were not required for the formation of the La Roda dolomite. A significant contribution by bacteria to the formation of the dolomites is assumed in view of both petrographic and geochemical evidence. 相似文献
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