对新疆乌恰—喀什地区年度地震预测的总结与思考

在对新疆1973年以来年度地震预测情况进行综合研究基础上,重点分析了乌恰-喀什周围地区年度预测的阶段性特点,并对这一地区1900年以来M≥6地震和1972-2008年M≥5.5地震活动特征进行了的研究.认为对该区域地震活动规律性特点认识不足,没有遵循本地区地震活动的基本规律对地震趋势进行客观判断,是造成地震危险区预测效果较差的主要原因.依据地震活跃与间歇的特点认为2008年底开始乌恰-喀什周围地区将进入一个新的活跃时段,这一地区可能仍将继续被划定为年度强地震危险区.     

非对称大底盘双塔连体结构的动力特性和地震响应分析

依据现行抗震设计规范,运用三维有限元软件ANSYS对某25层大底盘非对称双塔连体结构进行了时程法地震反应分析,得到结构的自振特性和地震响应,并与未设连体的双塔结构的结果进行了比较.结果表明增设连体后双塔的扭转振型更加丰富,且运动和变形得到了统一和协调.     

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Miocene Oued Dayr Formation (Ghomaride Complex,Internal Domain of the Maghrebian Rif Belt,Morocco)

This work deals with sedimentological, petrographic, and structural analyses of a middle Miocene late-orogenic sedimentary cycle, denoted Oued Dayr Formation, recognized in the Rifian sector of the Maghrebian Chain (Morocco). The analyzed Formation (75 m thick) starts with 15–20 m of light colored polymict conglomerates, with minor sandstone beds, lying on the Paleozoic basement and Mesozoic cover of the Ghomaride Nappe. Facies analysis indicates a fining-upward deposition in a marine environment characterized by increasing deepening, reflecting a subsidence rate that exceeds sedimentary supply. Petrographic analysis points out that sandstones are represented by litharenites originated by erosion of recycled orogen. The conglomerates pebbles and cobbles consist of Alpine low- to high-grade metamorphic rocks as metarenites, phyllites, mylonitic quartzites, micaschists, augen gneisses deriving from the exhumed deep metamorphic basement, the overlying metasedimentary of the Sebtide Nappes and of sedimentary rocks as sandstones, jaspes, limestones, and shales deriving from the Ghomaride Nappes and their sedimentary cover. Data reveal mixed provenance indicating that the Oued Dayr Formation was fed by the Internal Nappes stack of the Maghrebian Chain. Structural analysis shows that the Oued Dayr Formation accumulated in a Thrust-Top basin, during an early extension (D₀ phase), recorded by synsedimentary normal faults within middle Langhian deposits on the rear of the Internal Nappes stack. Subsequent ductile and brittle compressional (D₁, D₂, D₃) and extensional (D₄) deformation phases occurred during and/or after the stacking, exhumation, and early unroofing of Sebtide Complex coeval with the opening of the western Mediterranean back-arc basins since middle Miocene time.     

Microstructure observations in the upper layer of the South China Sea

A general pattern for turbulent mixing in the upper layer of the South China Sea (SCS) is presented based on TurboMAP measurements in April and May 2010. The turbulence level decreased significantly overall from north to south, and weakened from east to west in the northern SCS. The average dissipation rate north of 18°N reaches 1.69 × 10^?8 W/kg, approximately six times larger than that south of 18°N. The mean mixing efficiency in the SCS is 0.2, with a maximum of 0.31 near the Luzon Strait. At one repeatedly occupied station located in the central deep basin, the dissipation rate varies diurnally in the mixed layer and pycnocline due to diurnal heating and cooling by solar radiation and local barotropic tide, respectively.     

Scaling analysis of deposition from turbidity currents

Many oil-bearing sedimentary deposits are formed by the settling of particles from turbidity currents. Modeling sedimentary processes that form these turbidites enables the calculation of properties such as extent, depth, porosity and permeability of hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs. This paper estimates the extent and thickness of turbidites from the initial conditions of the turbidity flow. This is achieved by the application of scaling analysis of the partial differential equations that govern the dynamics of and deposition from turbidity currents. We apply the results of scaling analysis to five modern submarine fans. The predicted and actual values of the dimensions of the fan deposits match well. We then compare the derived results against tabulated sizes of ancient turbidites. The comparisons are good as long as we correctly identify the flow regimes in which the deposition took place. The good agreements observed in the two cases show that the estimates obtained using scaling analysis can provide useful first-guess values for the dimensions of the deposits.     

Depth classification of underwater targets based on complex acoustic intensity of normal modes

In order to solve the problem of depth classification of the underwater target in a very low frequency acoustic field, the active component of cross spectra of particle pressure and horizontal velocity (ACCSPPHV) is adopted to distinguish the surface vessel and the underwater target. According to the effective depth of a Pekeris waveguide, the placing depth forecasting equations of passive vertical double vector hydrophones are proposed. Numerical examples show that when the sum of depths of two hydrophones is the effective depth, the sign distribution of ACCSPPHV has nothing to do with horizontal distance; in addition, the sum of the first critical surface and the second critical surface is equal to the effective depth. By setting the first critical surface less than the difference between the effective water depth and the actual water depth, that is, the second critical surface is greater than the actual depth, the three positive and negative regions of the whole ocean volume are equivalent to two positive and negative regions and therefore the depth classification of the underwater target is obtained. Besides, when the 20 m water depth is taken as the first critical surface in the simulation of underwater targets (40 Hz, 50 Hz, and 60 Hz respectively), the effectiveness of the algorithm and the correctness of relevant conclusions are verified, and the analysis of the corresponding forecasting performance is conducted.     

Frequency based imputation of precipitation

Changing climate and precipitation patterns make the estimation of precipitation, which exhibits two-dimensional and sometimes chaotic behavior, more challenging. In recent decades, numerous data-driven methods have been developed and applied to estimate precipitation; however, these methods suffer from the use of one-dimensional approaches, lack generality, require the use of neighboring stations and have low sensitivity. This paper aims to implement the first generally applicable, highly sensitive two-dimensional data-driven model of precipitation. This model, named frequency based imputation (FBI), relies on non-continuous monthly precipitation time series data. It requires no determination of input parameters and no data preprocessing, and it provides multiple estimations (from the most to the least probable) of each missing data unit utilizing the series itself. A total of 34,330 monthly total precipitation observations from 70 stations in 21 basins within Turkey were used to assess the success of the method by removing and estimating observation series in annual increments. Comparisons with the expectation maximization and multiple linear regression models illustrate that the FBI method is superior in its estimation of monthly precipitation. This paper also provides a link to the software code for the FBI method.     

云南水汞群体非均匀度异常与成组强震活动关系

阐述了一种前兆群体异常信息提取新方法前兆群体非均匀度的数学原理,并以云南水汞群体异常信息为例进行了具体计算。结果表明该方法以群体异常分布特征的变化为异常标准(ID≥1),达到异常即自动识别报警。该方法能克服个人经验的局限,易为他人进行检验,可成为本地区成组强震预测对应概率较高的新指标。     

Carbon and nitrogen isotope,and mineral inclusion studies on the diamonds from the Pozanti–Karsanti chromitite,Turkey

The Pozanti–Karsanti ophiolite (PKO) is one of the largest oceanic remnants in the Tauride belt, Turkey. Micro-diamonds were recovered from the podiform chromitites, and these diamonds were investigated based on morphology, color, cathodoluminescence, nitrogen content, carbon and nitrogen isotopes, internal structure and inclusions. The diamonds recovered from the PKO are mainly mixed-habit diamonds with sectors of different brightness under the cathodoluminescence images. The total δ¹³C range of the PKO diamonds varies between ??18.8 and ??28.4‰, with a principle δ¹³C mode at ??25‰. Nitrogen contents of the diamonds range from 7 to 541 ppm with a mean value of 171 ppm, and the δ¹⁵N values range from ??19.1 to 16.6‰, with a δ¹⁵N mode of ??9‰. Stacking faults and partial dislocations are commonly observed in the Transmission Electron Microscopy foils whereas inclusions are rather rare. Combinations of (Ca_0.81Mn_0.19)SiO₃, NiMnCo-alloy and nano-sized, quenched fluid phases were observed as inclusions in the PKO diamonds. We believe that the ¹³C-depleted carbon signature of the PKO diamonds derived from previously subducted crustal matter. These diamonds may have crystallized from C-saturated fluids in the asthenospheric mantle at depth below 250 km which were subsequently carried rapidly upward by asthenospheric melts.