Geomechanics of hazardous landslides

A catalogue of possible landslide initial failure mechanisms, taking into account the geological setting and the geometry of the slope, the joint structure, the habitus of the rock blocks, as well as the mechanical behaviour of the rocks and of the rock mass （deformation and strength parameters）, is presented. Its aim is to give geologists as well as engineers the opportunity to compare phenomena in the field and phenomena belonging to particular mechanisms and to find the mechanism occurring. The presented catalogue of initial landslide mechanisms only comprises the mechanisms having a clearly defined mechanical model that can be divided into empirical relations and into mechanical models, as well as an overview of run out models, which can be divided into empirical relations and into mechanical models.     

Hydrogeophysical modelling of Hisarcik (Kütahya) geothermal field,western Turkey

Western Anatolia hosts many low-to-moderate and high-temperature geothermal sources in which active faults play a dominant role to control the recharge and the discharge of geothermal fluid. In this study, we used the two-dimensional geoelectric structure of Kütahya Hisarcık geothermal field, and created a conceptual hydrogeophysical model that includes faults, real topographical variations and geological units. The temperature distribution and fluid flow pattern are also investigated. The depth extension of Hisarcık Fault, electrical basement and low resistivity anomalies related to the presence of geothermal fluid are determined by using resistivity studies in the area. Numerical simulations suggest that Hisarcık fault functioning as a fluid conduit primarily enables hot fluid to be transported from depth to the surface. It is shown that the locations of predicted outflow vents coincide with those of hot springs in the area.     

Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.     

Rock-slides on road cuttings in the Dinaric karst of Croatia: processes and factors

The northern Adriatic coast, which forms part of the Dinaric karst system, is bordered by high mountains. Here, the occurrence of rock-slides and rock-falls in road sections with high cuttings excavated in recent times and more than one century ago has been documented. Some of these old slopes were stable for a long time before rock-slides started to occur. We propose that these mass movements are favoured by karstification processes acting along joints in the exposed rock mass. The stress changes induced by overburden removal (excavation) cause dilation in the mass joint systems reducing the rock mass strength and facilitating the circulation of aggressive water. Changes in water pressure and temperature, wetting and drying cycles, and corrosion processes along discontinuity planes entail a reduction through time of the shear strength of potential failure surfaces.     

需水管理的定义与内涵

水资源是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,是生态与环境的控制性要素.中国人均占有水资源量少,不足2200m3,不足世界人均占有量的1/3.水资源时空分布极为不均,特别是在全球气候变化和大规模经济开发双重因素的交织作用下,中国水资源情势正在发生新的变化.在水资源管理理念上,要加快从供水管理向需水管理转变.为使人们对需水管理有比较全面和深刻的认识,部分专家和学者从各种角度论述了"需水管理"的定义和内涵,认为,需水管理是面向包括人类与自然在内所有用水户的水资源供需平衡的全方位而有序的管理系统工程,对各方面的需水,采取行政、经济、法律和技术等手段和措施,对水资源供需进行平衡与协调,遏制不合理用水需求,提高用水效率和效益,减少水资源短缺对人类社会的威胁,确保水资源可持续利用.简言之,需水管理意为以供定需,供需协调,人水和谐,持续利用.     

T213数值预报产品在2003年宁夏首场透雨天气过程中的应用分析

2003年5月5～6日,宁夏出现了入春以来第一场透雨天气过程,本文利用常规天气资料和T213数值预报产品,对此次降水天气过程从主要影响系统和T213数值预报有关物理量预报场等方面进行分析发现,T213对我区降水有很好的预报能力和指示意义,并随着预报时效的缩短,其可信度在不断提高。     

The Permian Kas Formation of SE Turkey—palynological correlation with strata from Saudi Arabia and Oman

The Kas Formation in SE Turkey was deposited as part of the Permian sequence on the northern margin of the Arabian Plate. Its stratigraphic relationship to time‐equivalent strata of the Arabian Plate was mentioned briefly in previous studies, but has not been elaborated and illustrated in detail. This biostratigraphic review of existing palaeontological data has improved the accuracy of age interpretation for the Kas Formation, and the relationship of its excellent palynological record to the international Permian chronostratigraphic units. As a result, this study has identified a number of key palynological species from the Kas Formation, which occur as well as in the ‘Basal Khuff Clastics’ of Saudi Arabia and in the ‘Khuff transition section’ of Oman. All these units have approximately the same age: Wordian to early Capitanian, based on ‘age control’ provided by Foraminifera. This study also demonstrates that, by using key palynological taxa, correlation of strata would be possible across the entire Arabian Plate in this narrow time range. Hence, the ‘Oman and Saudi Arabia Palynological Zone 6’ (OSPZ6) is applicable throughout the Arabian Plate area, including the northern regions of SE Turkey and Iraq. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.