Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: an economic evaluation

This article simulates deep decarbonization pathways for a small open economy that lacks the usual avenues for large CO₂ reductions – heavy industry and power generation. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the energy and economic impacts of the transition to only one ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This represents a 76% reduction with respect to 1990 levels, while the population is expected to be 46% larger and GPD to increase by 90%. The article discusses several options and scenarios that are compatible with this emissions target and compares them with a reference scenario that extrapolates already-decided climate and energy policy instruments. We show that the ambitious target is attainable at moderate welfare costs, even if it needs very high carbon prices, and that these costs are lower when either CO₂ can be captured and sequestered or electricity consumption can be taxed sufficiently to stabilize it.

Policy relevance

In the context of COP 21, all countries must propose intended contributions that involve deep decarbonization of their economy over the next decades. This article defines and analyses such pathways for Switzerland, taking into consideration the existing energy demand and supply and also already-defined climate policies. It draws several scenarios that are compatible with a target of 1 ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This objective is very challenging, especially with the nuclear phase out decided after the disaster in Fukushima and the political decision to balance electricity trade. Nevertheless, it is possible to design several feasible pathways that are based on different options. The economic cost is significant but affordable for the Swiss economy. The insights are relevant not only for Switzerland, but also for other industrialized countries when defining their INDCs.     

The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL–CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley–Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke’s convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel’s scheme improves the representation of the Hadley–Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke’s parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model.     

A mass‐balance approach to estimate in‐stream processes in a large river

A mass‐balance approach was used to estimate in‐stream processes related to inorganic nitrogen species (NH₄⁺, NO₂^? and NO₃^?) in a large river characterized by highly variable hydrological conditions, the Garonne River (south‐west France). Studies were conducted in two consecutive reaches of 30 km located downstream of the Toulouse agglomeration (population 760 000, seventh order), impacted by modification of discharge regime and high nitrogen concentrations. The mass‐balance was calculated by two methods: the first is based on a variable residence time (VRT) simulated by a one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydraulic model; the second is a based on a calculation using constant residence time (CRT) evaluated according to hydrographic peaks. In the context of the study, removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) for a reach of 30 km is underestimated by 11% with the CRT method. In sub‐reaches, the discrepancy between the two methods led to a 50% overestimation of DIN removal in the upper reach (13 km) and a 43% underestimation in the lower reach (17 km) using the CRT method. The study highlights the importance of residence time determination when using modelling approaches in the assessment of whole stream processes in short‐duration mass‐balance for a large river under variable hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of sediment supply from torrent catchments in the Western Alps using the sediment contributing area (SCA) approach

The production of coarse sediment in mountain landscapes depends mainly on the type and activity of geomorphic processes and topographic and natural conditions (e.g. vegetation cover) of these catchments. The supply of sediment from these slopes to mountain streams and its subsequent transport lead to sediment connectivity, which describes the integrated coupled state of these systems. Studies from the Northern Calcareous Alps show that the size of the sediment contributing area (SCA), a subset of the drainage area that effectively delivers sediment to the channel network, can be used as a predictor of sediment delivery to mountain streams. The SCA concept is delineated on a digital elevation model (DEM) using a set of rules related to the steepness and length of slopes directly adjacent to the channel network, the gradient of the latter and the vegetation cover. The present study investigates the applicability of this concept to the Western Alps to identify geomorphologically active areas and to estimate mean annual sediment yield (SY) in mainly debris-flow-prone catchments. We use a statistical approach that shows a parameter optimisation and a linear regression of SY on SCA extent. We use a dataset of ~25 years of assessed coarse sediment accumulation in 35 sediment retention basins. In the investigated catchments, sediment transport is governed by several factors, mainly by the extent of vegetation-free areas with a minimum slope of 23° that is coupled to the channel network with a very low gradient of the latter. With our improved framework, we can show that the SCA approach can be applied to catchments that are widely distributed, in a large spatial scale (hectare area) and very heterogeneous in their properties. In general, the investigated catchments show high connectivity, resulting in significant correlations between long-term average yield and the size of the SCA.     

Fungal air contamination in distinct sites within a municipal landfill area

Municipal wastes collected in landfills are a significant source of air contamination and frequently characterize by elevated concentrations of different fungi. Posing a serious health threat to landfill workers and local residents, the fungal aerosol has to be monitored with respect to its quantity and quality. In this study, concentrations of airborne fungi, their particle size distribution, species composition and the presence of cytotoxic strains of Aspergillus fumigatus were assessed in different sites within the landfill area. The quantitative and qualitative changes in the fungal aerosol were determined with respect to a season and landfill activity level (i.e. exploitation or standstill periods). Within the landfill area, particular sites were grouped with regard to airborne fungi concentrations and similarities in species composition. The qualitative analysis indicated that 43 species were shared during both sampling times, and only nine species were characteristic for the standstill period. Among fungal isolates, 21 strains of A. fumigatus revealed cytotoxic activity expressed at different levels, depending on the fungal extract concentrations used in the MTT assay. The results suggested that exposure (especially in summer) to small airborne particles, containing distinct species, may occur not only in the active sector but also in close vicinity to the landfill. Hence, microbial monitoring of the landfill and surrounding area should be carried out taking into account both quantitative aspect supplemented by size distribution analysis and qualitative features, especially of those strains possessing cytotoxic activity.     

Dynamics of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean diagnosed from a 2D mixed-layer model

We analyze the processes responsible for the generation and evolution of sea-surface temperature anomalies observed in the Southern Ocean during a decade based on a 2D diagnostic mixed-layer model in which geostrophic advection is prescribed from altimetry. Anomalous air–sea heat flux is the dominant term of the heat budget over most of the domain, while anomalous Ekman heat fluxes account for 20–40% of the variance in the latitude band 40°?60°S. In the ACC pathway, lateral fluxes of heat associated with anomalous geostrophic currents are a major contributor, dominating downstream of several topographic features, reflecting the influence of eddies and frontal migrations. A significant fraction of the variability of large-scale SST anomalies is correlated with either ENSO or the SAM, each mode contributing roughly equally. The relation between the heat budget terms and these climate modes is investigated, showing in particular that anomalous Ekman and air–sea heat fluxes have a co-operating effect (with regional exceptions), hence the large SST response associated with each mode. It is further shown that ENSO- or SAM-locked anomalous geostrophic currents generate substantial heat fluxes in all three basins with magnitude comparable with that of atmospheric forcings for ENSO, and smaller for the SAM except for limited areas. ENSO-locked forcings generate SST anomalies along the ACC pathway, and advection by mean flows is found to be a non-negligible contribution to the heat budget, exhibiting a wavenumber two zonal structure, characteristic of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. By contrast SAM-related forcings are predominantly zonally uniform along the ACC, hence smaller zonal SST gradients and a lesser role of mean advection, except in the SouthWest Atlantic. While modeled SST anomalies are significantly correlated with observations over most of the Southern Ocean, the analysis of the data-model discrepancies suggests that vertical ocean physics may play a significant role in the nonseasonal heat budget, especially in some key regions for mode water formation.     

Surface area, porosity and water adsorption properties of fine volcanic ash particles

Our understanding on how ash particles in volcanic plumes react with coexisting gases and aerosols is still rudimentary, despite the importance of these reactions in influencing the chemistry and dynamics of a plume. In this study, six samples of fine ash (<100 m) from different volcanoes were measured for their specific surface area, a_s, porosity and water adsorption properties with the aim to provide insights into the capacity of silicate ash particles to react with gases, including water vapour. To do so, we performed high-resolution nitrogen and water vapour adsorption/desorption experiments at 77 K and 303 K, respectively. The nitrogen data indicated a_s values in the range 1.1–2.1 m²/g, except in one case where a a_s of 10 m²/g was measured. This high value is attributed to incorporation of hydrothermal phases, such as clay minerals, in the ash surface composition. The data also revealed that the ash samples are essentially non-porous, or have a porosity dominated by macropores with widths >500 Å. All the specimens had similar pore size distributions, with a small peak centered around 50 Å. These findings suggest that fine ash particles have relatively undifferentiated surface textures, irrespective of the chemical composition and eruption type. Adsorption isotherms for water vapour revealed that the capacity of the ash samples for water adsorption is systematically larger than predicted from the nitrogen adsorption a_s values. Enhanced reactivity of the ash surface towards water may result from (i) hydration of bulk ash constituents; (ii) hydration of surface compounds; and/or (iii) hydroxylation of the surface of the ash. The later mechanism may lead to irreversible retention of water. Based on these experiments, we predict that volcanic ash is covered by a complete monolayer of water under ambient atmospheric conditions. In addition, capillary condensation within ash pores should allow for deposition of condensed water on to ash particles before water reaches saturation in the plume. The total mass of water vapour retained by 1 g of fine ash at 0.95 relative water vapour pressure is calculated to be ~10^–2 g. Some volcanic implications of this study are discussed.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert     

Sedimentology of early Pliocene sandstones in the south-western Taiwan foreland: Implications for basin physiography in the early stages of collision

This work presents sedimentological observations and interpretations on three detailed sections of the Pliocene Yutengping/Ailiaochiao formations, deposited in the early stages of collision in Taiwan. Seven facies associations record paleoenvironments of deposition ranging from nearshore to lower offshore with a strong influence of tidal reworking, even in shelfal sub-tidal environments, and a pro-delta setting characterized by mass-flows. The association of shallow facies of the upper offshore to lower shoreface with pro-delta turbidite facies sourced in the orogen to the east suggests a peculiar setting in which turbidite deposition occurred below wave base but on the shelf, in water depths of probably less than 100 m. This adds to the examples of “shallow turbidites” increasingly commonly found in foreland basins and challenges the classical view of a “deep” early underfilled foreland basin. Time series analysis on tidal rhythmites allow us to identify a yearly signal in the form of periodic changes of sand-supply, energy and bioturbation that suggests a marked seasonality possibly affecting precipitation and sediment delivery as well as temperature. The Taiwan foreland basin may also present a potentially high-resolution record in shallow sediments of the early installation of monsoonal circulation patterns in east Asia. We confirm partly the paleogeography during the early stages of collision in Taiwan: the Chinese margin displayed a pronounced non-cylindrical geometry with a large basement promontory to the west in place of the modern Taiwan mountain range. Collision in Taiwan may have happened at once along the whole length of the modern mountain range, instead of progressively from north to south as classically considered.     

Evidence for delayed poleward expansion of North Atlantic surface waters during the last interglacial (MIS 5e)

The Last Interglacial (Marine Isotopic Stage or MIS 5e) surface ocean heat flux from the Rockall Basin (NE Atlantic) towards the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed by analysing dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages in four sediment cores. Together with records of stable isotopes and ice-rafted detritus, the assemblage data reflect the northward retreat of ice(berg)-laden waters and the gradual development towards interglacial conditions at the transition from the Saalian deglaciation (Termination II) into MIS 5e. At the Rockall Basin, this onset of the Last Interglacial is soon followed by the appearance of the thermophilic dinocyst species Spiniferites mirabilis, with relative abundances higher than those observed at present in the area. North of the Iceland-Scotland Ridge, however, S. mirabilis only appears in significant numbers during late MIS 5e, between ～118 and 116.5 ka. Hence, fully marine Last Interglacial conditions with most intense Atlantic surface water influence occurred during late MIS 5e in the Nordic seas, and consequently also farther north in the Arctic Ocean, and at times when northern hemisphere summer insolation was already significantly decreased. The stratigraphic position of this Late Interglacial optimum is supported by planktic foraminifers and contrasts with the timing of the early Holocene climatic optimum in this area. We interpret the delayed northward expansion of Atlantic waters towards the polar latitudes as a result of the Saalian ice sheet deglaciation and its specific impact on the subsequent water mass evolution in this region.