A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China

The relationships between fire danger indices and fire risk have been extensively studied in many regions of the world. This work uses partial effect analysis in semiparametric logistic regression models to assess the nonlinear relationships among location, day, altitude, fire danger indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and fire ignition from 1996 to 2008 in four different climatic regions in China. The four regions are North China (NR), Northeast China (NE), Southeast China (SE), and Southwest China (SW). The three main results are as follows: First, different fire danger indices are selected as significant variables dependent on the region. The inter-regional difference could be partially explained by difference in local weather and vegetation conditions. Second, spatial location exerts highly significant effects in all four regions. NDVI values are selected as explained variable for NR, NE, and SE on fire ignitions. On a daily scale, altitude influences fire ignition for NR, SE, and SW. Third, the robustness of the probability models used in NE, SE, and SW is better than that in NR on a daily scale. The semiparametric logistic regression model used in this study is useful for assessing the ability of fire danger indices to estimate probabilities of fire ignition on a daily scale. This study encourages further research on assessing the predictive ability of fire danger indices developed at other temporal and spatial scales in China.     

On the relation between the evolution of natural environment and human factors and the development of urban settlement—Take the Lanzhou Valley Basin as an examples

Lanzhou Valley Basin is composed of two smaller diamond-shaped basins striking from NW to SE and including 6 river terraces. The lower terraces remaining even and smooth are main sites for city buildings. The main function of Lanzhou urban settlement is a ferry and transport centre. Lanzhou used to be an important crossing site and post on the “silk road”, and then became a transport and trade centre in Northwest China. In the middle part of the 17th century, Lanzhou became the capital of Gansu, a new province. The development process of Lanzhou urban settlement indicates that urban settlement is a system consisting of natural environment and human society based on the former.     

基于U型卷积神经网络的航空影像建筑物检测

经典的卷积神经网络结构在前向传播过程中分辨率不断下降,导致仅采用末层特征时难以实现建筑物边缘的精确分割,进而限制目标检测精度。针对该问题,提出一种基于U型卷积网络的建筑物检测方法。首先借鉴在图像分割领域中性能出色的神经网络模型U-Net的建模思想,采用对称式的网络结构融合深度网络中的高维和低维特征以恢复高保真边界;其次考虑到经典U-Net对位于特征金字塔顶层的模型参数优化程度相对不足,通过在顶层和底层两个不同尺度输出预测结果进行双重约束,进一步提升了建筑物检测精度。在覆盖范围达30 km²、建筑物目标28 000余个的航空影像数据集上的试验结果表明,本文方法的检测结果在IoU和Kappa两项关键评价指标的均值上分别达到83.7%和89.5%,优于经典U-Net模型,显著优于经典全卷积网络模型和基于人工设计特征的AdaBoost模型。     

扬子陆块西缘中元古代晚期元谋花岗岩的时代、成因及构造意义

扬子陆块西缘晚中元古代地质演化史一直存在较大争议,本文选择以扬子西缘元谋杂岩中一套二长花岗岩为研究对象,开展岩相学、锆石U-Pb年代学、全岩地球化学等综合研究,为认识和理解扬子西缘晚中元古代地质演化提供支撑。两件元谋二长花岗岩样品的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄分别为1086±10 Ma（MSWD=1.4,n=50）和1099±10 Ma（MSWD=1.8,n=58）。所有样品具有高硅（SiO₂为69.44%~73.98%）、富碱（Na₂O+K₂O为6.11%~7.72%）、贫钙（CaO为0.39%~1.46%）、贫镁（MgO为0.52%~0.76%）、低钛（TiO₂为0.30%~0.59%）的特点,同时表现出强过铝质（A/CNK=1.19~1.35）及中钾钙碱性–钾玄岩系列特征。它们具有高的稀土元素总量（∑REE=211.60×10^-6~349.01×10^-6）,呈现轻稀土元素富集和重稀土元素亏损（（La/Yb）_N=4.32~7.36）;富集Rb、U、Th等大离子亲石元素和Zr、Th、Hf等,亏损Nb、Ta、Ba等元素,并具有明显的负Eu异常（δEu=0.46~0.59）,锆石饱和温度介于827~912℃之间,展示了A型花岗岩的属性。这些二长花岗岩可能是通过中上地壳的中酸性火成岩的部分熔融形成,结合前人的研究成果,它们最可能形成于弧后的伸展环境,综合扬子陆块周缘晚中元古代的岩浆记录,元谋杂岩中1.09 Ga二长花岗岩的形成应与扬子陆块开始参与Rodinia超大陆聚合有关。     

Abiotic Methane Reservoirs in the Western Tianshan HP–UHP Metamorphic Belt,China

Natural gas, consisting primarily of methane(CH₄), has become a major source of clean energy in modern society in many parts of the globe. Recent experimental observations and discoveries of deep-sourced abiotic CH₄ in cold subduction zones indicate the important ability of cold subducted slabs to generate natural gas reservoirs. However, most CH₄ flux and reservoirs remain unknown and their potential is overlooked in global carbon flux estimations. Massive abiot...     

Numerical Modeling of Natural Fracture Distributions in Shale

The production efficiency of shale gas is affected by the interaction between hydraulic and natural fractures. This study presents a simulation of natural fractures in shale reservoirs, based on a discrete fracture network (DFN) method for hydraulic fracturing engineering. Fracture properties of the model are calculated from core fracture data, according to statistical mathematical analysis. The calculation results make full use of the quantitative information of core fracture orientation, density, opening and length, which constitute the direct and extensive data of mining engineering. The reliability and applicability of the model are analyzed with regard to model size and density, a calculation method for dominant size and density being proposed. Then, finite element analysis is applied to a hydraulic fracturing numerical simulation of a shale fractured reservoir in southeastern Chongqing. The hydraulic pressure distribution, fracture propagation, acoustic emission information and in situ stress changes during fracturing are analyzed. The results show the application of fracture statistics in fracture modeling and the influence of fracture distribution on hydraulic fracturing engineering. The present analysis may provide a reference for shale gas exploitation.     

鄂尔多斯盆地庆城地区延长组7段致密油特征及油源分析

鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组7段(长7段)半深湖—深湖相优质油源岩是油气的重要来源,包括黑色页岩和暗色泥岩,作为盆地重要的供烃源岩一直是研究的热点。为了明确不同烃源岩的贡献及油气来源,通过对庆城地区长7段致密油特征进行分析,对原油进行精细划分,并对源岩有效性进行分析,进一步明确油源对应关系,研究表明,庆城地区长7段黑色页岩和暗色泥岩均对油气成藏有贡献,其中黑色页岩贡献最大,长7₃段暗色泥岩次之,长7₂和长7₁段暗色泥岩贡献较小;原油为低密度、中—低黏度和低凝固点的轻质油。根据生标物特征将原油划分为3类,A类原油具有低C₃₀重排藿烷/C₂₉藿烷、低C₂₉Ts/C₂₉藿烷、低Ts/Tm的特征,由黑色页岩贡献,主要分布于长7₁段;C类原油具有高C₃₀重排藿烷/C₂₉藿烷、高C₂₉Ts/C₂₉藿烷、高Ts/Tm的特征,主要由暗色泥岩贡献,...     

Analysis of the microseismicity characteristics in landslide dam failure flume tests: implications for early warning and dynamics inversion

Landslides - Determining the premonitory and dynamic characteristics of landslide dam failures can provide an early warning as well the identification of the evolution of the failure process, and...     

阿尔金造山带南缘晚奥陶世赞岐质闪长岩的发现及其地质意义

本文以阿尔金造山带南缘出露的高镁赞岐质闪长岩为研究对象,通过系统的野外地质工作、显微岩相学、年代学和全岩地球化学分析,探讨其成因类型和源区性质,限定了阿尔金造山带构造演化格架。闪长岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果表明其形成年龄为(445±3) Ma,属晚奥陶世。地球化学数据显示:闪长岩Al₂O₃含量为15.11%~16.19%,且具有高MgO(3.93%~5.29%)和K₂O(1.68%~2.67%)含量的特征,属于高镁钙碱性准铝质岩石;闪长岩具有较高的Cr(29.3×10^-6~140×10^-6)、Ni(27.1×10^-6~43.5×10^-6)、Ba(606×10^-6~936×10^-6)、Sr(513×10^-6~734×10^-6)和Y(26.4×10^-6~31.1×10^-6)含量,与典型的高镁赞岐岩类地球化学特征一致;稀土配分图和微量元素蛛网图显示闪长岩样品富集轻稀土元素和大离子亲石元素(如Rb和K),而亏损高场强元素(如Nb、Ti和Zr),表现出与俯冲带环境岩浆岩相似的性质;高Ti/Zr比值(48~60)与Mg^#(46.74~53.06)、高Cr(29.3×10^-6~140×10^-6)与高Ni(27.1×10^-6~43.5×10^-6)含量等暗示闪长岩岩浆源区来自遭受俯冲组分交代过的富集岩石圈地幔。岩石成因分析表明,阿尔金造山带南缘晚奥陶世高镁赞岐质闪长岩是后碰撞构造环境下俯冲板片断离诱发地幔楔发生减压熔融而形成,代表了早古生代最强烈的区域性幔源基性岩浆侵入事件。