Assessment of land use land cover change impact on hydrological regime of a basin

The sustainability of water resources mainly depends on planning and management of land use; a small change in it may affect water yield largely, as both are linked through relevant hydrological processes, explicitly. However, human activities, especially a significant increase in population, in-migration and accelerated socio-economic activities, are constantly modifying the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. The impact of such changes in LULC on the hydrological regime of a basin is of widespread concern and a great challenge to the water resource engineers. While studying these impacts, the issue that prevails is the selection of a hydrological model that may be able to accommodate spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin with higher accuracy. Therefore, in the present study, the capabilities of variable infiltration capacity hydrological model to hydrologically simulate the basin under varying LULC scenarios have been investigated. For the present analysis, the Pennar River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, which falls under a water scarce region in India, has been chosen. The water balance components such as runoff potential, evapotranspiration (ET) and baseflow of Pennar Basin have been simulated under different LULC scenarios to study the impact of change on hydrological regime of a basin. Majorly, increase in built-up (13.94% approx.) and decrease in deciduous forest cover (2.44%) are the significant changes observed in the basin during the last three decades. It was found that the impact of LULC change on hydrology is balancing out at basin scale (considering the entire basin, while routing the runoff at the basin outlet). Therefore, an analysis on spatial variation in each of the water balance components considered in the study was done at grid scale. It was observed that the impact of LULC is considerable spatially at grid level, and the maximum increase of 265 mm (1985–2005) and the decrease of 48 mm (1985–1995) in runoff generation at grid were estimated. On the contrary, ET component showed the maximum increase of 400 and decrease of 570 mm under different LULC change scenario. Similarly, in the base flow parameter, an increase of 70 mm and the decrease of 100 mm were observed. It was noticed that the upper basin is showing an increasing trend in almost all hydrological components as compared to the lower basin. Based on this basin scale study, it was concluded that change in the land cover alters the hydrology; however, it needs to be studied at finer spatial scale rather than the entire basin as a whole. The information like the spatial variation in hydrological components may be very useful for local authority and decision-makers to plan mitigation strategies accordingly.     

Observed oceanic response to tropical cyclone Jal from a moored buoy in the south-western Bay of Bengal

Upper oceanographic and surface meteorological time-series observations from a moored buoy located at 9.98°N, 88°E in the south-western Bay of Bengal (BoB) were used to quantify variability in upper ocean, forced by a tropical cyclone (TC) Jal during November 2010. Before the passage of TC Jal, salinity and temperature profiles showed a typical BoB post-monsoon structure with relatively warm (30 °C) and low-saline (32.8 psu) waters in the upper 30- to 40-m layer, and relatively cooler and higher salinity (35 psu) waters below. After the passage of cyclone, an abrupt increase of 1 psu (decrease of 1 °C) in salinity (temperature) in the near-surface layers (up to 40-m depth) was observed from buoy measurements, which persisted up to 10–12 days during the relaxation stage of cyclone. Mixed layer heat budget analysis showed that vertical processes are the dominant contributors towards the observed cooling. The net surface heat flux and horizontal advection together contributed approximately 33 % of observed cooling, during TC Jal forced stage. Analysis showed the existence of strong inertial oscillation in the thermocline region and currents with periodicity of ～2.8 days. During the relaxation stage of the cyclone, upward movement of thermocline in near-inertial frequencies played significant role in mixed layer temperature and salinity variability, by much freer turbulent exchange between the mixed layer and thermocline.     

Role of Vertical Resolution in Numerical Models Towards the Intensification,Structure and Track of Tropical Cyclones

The impact of vertical resolution on the evolution and movement of tropical cyclones was studied using NCAR MM5 model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km. Four numerical experiments were performed with different vertical resolutions, that is, with 23 vertical levels as control experiment, and 36 vertical levels with high resolution in the lower troposphere, 33 vertical levels with high resolution in the upper troposphere and 46 vertical levels with increased vertical resolution throughout the troposphere as relative to base experiment. The results indicate that increased vertical resolution in the lower troposphere produces efficient intensification and better structure in terms of eye and eyewall. Increased vertical resolution at lower levels improves the prediction of vertical shear of horizontal wind. Experiments with high resolution in the lower troposphere and high resolution throughout the troposphere simulate better track up to 72 hours.     

A Spatial Database of Cropping System and its Characteristics to Aid Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies

Cropping system study is not only useful to understand the overall sustainability of agricultural system, but also it helps in generating many important parameters which are useful in climate change impact assessment. Considering its importance, Space Applications Centre, took up a project for mapping and characterizing major cropping systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. The study area included the five states of Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, i.e. Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. There were two aspects of the study. The first aspect included state and district level cropping system mapping using multi-date remote sensing (IRS-AWiFS and Radarsat ScanSAR) data. The second part was to characterize the cropping system using moderate spatial resolution multi-date remote sensing data (SPOT VGT NDVI) and ground survey. The remote sensing data was used to compute three cropping system performance indices (Multiple Cropping Index, Area Diversity Index and Cultivated Land Utilization Index). Ground survey was conducted using questionnaires filled up by 1,000 farmers selected from 103 villages based on the cropping systems map. Apart from ground survey, soil and water sampling and quality analysis were carried out to understand the effect of different cropping systems and their management practices. The results showed that, rice-wheat was the major cropping system of the IGP, followed by Rice-Fallow-Fallow and Maize-Wheat. Other major cropping systems of IGP included Sugarcane based, Pearl millet-Wheat, Rice-Fallow-Rice, Cotton-Wheat. The ground survey could identify 77 cropping systems, out of which 38 are rice-based systems. Out of these 77 cropping systems, there were 5 single crop systems, occupying 6.5% coverage (of all cropping system area), 56 double crop systems with 72.7% coverage, and 16 triple crop systems with 20.8% coverage. The cropping system performance analysis showed that the crop diversity was found to be highest in Haryana, while the cropping intensity was highest in Punjab state.     

Analysis of a genesis potential parameter during pre-cyclone watch period over the Bay of Bengal

The genesis potential parameter (GPP) consists of two dynamical variables low-level relative vorticity and vertical wind shear, and two thermodynamic variables middle tropospheric relative humidity and instability are analysed during pre-cyclone watch period over the Bay of Bengal. The pre-cyclone watch period is taken as the period prior to 72-h from the formation of a Depression. The GPP values for 30 tropical disturbances that formed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 2001–2010 are analysed. An independent evaluation of the parameter and possible applications to operational forecasting are presented using data from the year 1998 to 1999. The variables of GPP are calculated using the ECMWF interim reanalysis 1.5° × 1.5° resolution data, averaged within an area of 5° × 5° box on the centre of tropical disturbances and also over the 5° × 5° boxes over the adjacent surrounding areas. The results show that maximum value is observed over the genesis region at 48- and 24-h lead time for both the cases of cyclones and Depressions. The threshold value of GPP is found to be 9.3, 6.3 and 2.7 during pre-cyclone watch period at 24-, 48- and 72-h lead time, respectively. A distinction in GPP values above threshold value for cyclonic and a Depression system is also observed for the cyclogenesis region in 69, 75 and 75 % of cases at 72-, 48- and 24-h lead time, respectively. However, the individual case studies show that the GPP could indicate the genesis of a tropical cyclone with a 2-day lead time. The mean GPP values are 11.8, 8.5 and 3.8 for cyclonic systems and 6.9, 4.2 and 1.6 for Depression systems over an area of a box 5° × 5° on the systems at 24-, 48- and 72-h lead time, respectively, from the stage of Depression. The result of the study is found to be providing probable area of genesis and intensification of a tropical disturbance at a 2 day lead time from the stage Depression.     

Evaluation of RADARSAT ScanSAR synthetic aperture radar data for rice crop inventory and monitoring

Radarsat ScanSAR Narrow (SN2) data acquired on July 24 and August 17, 1997 were used to analyse the signature of rice crop in West Bengal, India. The analysis showed that the lowland practice of cultivation gives a distinct signature to rice due to the initial water background. The relatively stable backscatter from water bodies in temporal data enhanced the separability of rice fields from water using two date data. Around 94 per cent classification accuracy was achieved for rice crop using two date data. It was feasible to discriminate rice sub-classes based on their planting period like early and late crop. The analysis indicates the suitability of ScanSAR data for large area rice crop monitoring as it has a wide swath of 300 km.     

Yohkoh/SXT observations of a coronal mass ejection near the solar surface

We report the observations of a coronal mass ejection (CME) using the Soft X-ray Telescope on board the Yohkoh Mission. The CME had the familiar three part structure (frontal loop, prominence core and a cavity). The erupting prominence was observed by the Nobeyama radioheliograph. We were able to determine the mass of the CME (2.6 × 10¹⁴ g) from X-ray observations which seems to be at the lower end of the range of CME masses reported before from white light observations. This is the first time the mass of a CME has been determined from X-ray observations. The height of onset of the CME was 0.3R_⊙. The CME moved much faster than the erupting prominence while its acceleration was smaller than that of the erupting prominence.J. Leonard Culhane     

A study of coronal bright points at 20 cm wavelength

We present the results of a study of coronal bright points observed at 20 cm with the VLA on a day when the Sun was exceptionally quiet. Microwave maps of bright points were obtained using data for the entire observing period of 5 hours, as well as for shorter periods of a few minutes. Most bright points, especially those appearing in the full-period maps appear to be associated with small bipolar structures on the photospheric magnetogram. Overlays of bright point (B.P.) maps on the Ca⁺K picture, show that the brightest part of a B.P. tends to lie on the boundary of a supergranulation network. In general, the bright points exhibit rapid variations in intensity. There is no systematic correlation between the size of a B.P. and its intensity; the apparently slow variation of B.P. emission may have rapid fluctuations superimposed on it.