Recent advances in solar radio physics

We review high spatial resolution microwave observations of solar active regions, coronal loops and flares. Observations of preflare active regions are presented; in particular we discuss the interpretations of reversal of polarization at the flare site and the role of newly emerging flux in triggering the onset of flares. We discuss the spatial locations of microwave burst emitting regions; loops or arcades of loops appear to be the sites of flare energy release in microwave bursts. We provide direct observational evidence of magnetic reconnection as the primary cause of acceleration of electrons in microwave bursts.     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization

The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.     

Solar active regions at 9 and 3.5 mm wavelengths under disturbed conditions

Some properties of solar active regions at 9 and 3.5 mm wavelengths under disturbed conditions are discussed. New regions develop or weak regions intensify at millimeter wavelengths as a result of flares at distant sites. The spectra of the peak flux density of moderately strong bursts observed at 9 mm show a sharp drop toward the shorter millimeter wavelengths. The weak bursts at 3.5 mm manifest mainly as heating phenomena.     

Radio Detection of a Rapid Disturbance Launched by a Solar Flare

We report the direct observation of motion associated with a solar flare at a speed of 26,000 km s-1. The motion is seen from a radio source at 0.33 GHz, which suddenly starts moving during the flare. At its peak, the radio source covers a quiet region of dimension 500&arcsec;. Emission from any given location is sporadic. The disturbance itself does not seem to radiate, but it excites coronal features that continue to radiate after it passes. The inferred velocity is larger than any previously inferred velocity of a disturbance in the solar atmosphere apart from freely streaming beams of accelerated electrons. The observed motion of the source at a fixed frequency, low polarization, and moderate bandwidth are more consistent with the typical properties of moving type IV radio bursts than with classical coronal shock-associated type II bursts, but any disturbance at such a high velocity must be highly supersonic and should drive a shock. We speculate that the disturbance is associated with the realignment of magnetic fields connecting different portions of an active region.     

‘Unionising’ the new spaces of the new economy? Alternative labour organising in India’s IT Enabled Services-Business Process Outsourcing industry

This paper explores the lived experiences and aspirational social constructions of call centre work and employment in India’s high profile IT Enabled Services-Business Process Outsourcing (ITES-BPO) industry; the ways in which they differ from those previously documented amongst call centre workers in the Global North (specifically the UK); and the consequences of that geographical reconfiguration of offshored call centre work for the replicability in India of workplace collective bargaining strategies successfully developed in some UK call centres. These issues are analysed using new empirical evidence from a regional survey of 511 non-unionised ITES-BPO workers and 42 in-depth interviews in India’s National Capital Region. Based on this analysis, the paper then discusses the operation, outcomes and ongoing challenges faced by the newly formed ‘Union for ITES Professionals’ (UNITES Pro) in developing an alternative occupational organising model better suited to the particular needs, motivations and preferences of India’s young, mobile, call centre workers. The empirical analysis presented in the paper is located, therefore, within wider debates on the role of geographical context in shaping possibilities for organising white-collar service workers at different ends of global service chains in the new economy.     

Optimization of Nowcast Software WDSS-II for operational application over the Indian region

Nowcasting in the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is being provided for T + 0 to T + 2 h, using the Warning Decision Support System (WDSS-II) software. Prior to operational nowcasting over the Indian region, the parameters of the nowcast algorithm tool of the software were optimized, and accuracy was evaluated for various weather systems over Delhi. This optimization is demonstrated in this study with reference to three weather systems over Delhi, with each case representing one of three typical types of cloud systems over the region. These are—(a) convective lines associated with winter and early pre-monsoon weather systems, (b) deep convective cells that form in the pre-monsoon (April–June) and post-monsoon season (October–November) and (c) wide convective echoes that form during the monsoon season. The efficacy of the algorithm was assessed on a frame-by-frame basis as well as holistically for entire convective episodes. The important findings of the frame-by-frame study are (1) the inability of the inbuilt growth-decay algorithm to capture the evolution of storm cells, (2) setting of the threshold of detection of storms and tracking storms and (3) number of scales through which storms should be tracked. The holistic capabilities of the nowcast algorithm were tested for entire convective episodes using Model Evaluation Tools software. The results indicate that the advection algorithm tends to move the convective areas faster than observed at all time scales. Hence the multi-scale segmentation approach (over the two-scale approach) increases the smoothening of the output, at the cost of decreased nowcast skill. The inter-event comparison indicates that the low-intensity convective line zones, which are characteristic of winter and early pre-monsoon weather systems, have the most rapid temporal change in the overall area under convection. This leads to larger area errors during nowcasting of these systems. On the other hand, pre-monsoon systems comprised mostly isolated cells that reach great heights and move very fast, but do not have much horizontal area growth. The error in the nowcasting of these systems is mostly in respect of location error, as well as error in forecast of the intensity of the cells. The overall error in nowcasting is least for the monsoon systems over the Delhi region.