青藏高原兹格塘错沉积记录的全新世水位变化事件及其原因初步研究

兹格塘错是一个内陆封闭型湖泊,位于藏北高原腹地,处于西南季风作用边缘地带。由于流域内无冰川分布,湖泊补给主要靠大气降水,因此水体的扩张与收缩能够直接反映西南季风的变化。半干旱气候地区湖泊沉积物碳酸盐含量能够敏感地反映水体的扩张与收缩。兹格塘错沉积物碳酸盐含量高,与可溶盐(氯离子与硫酸根离子)含量变化结合能更好地揭示水体的演化阶段。分析结果表明,在9.3～8.9calkaBP、8.3～7.8calkaBP、5.0～4.7calkaBP、4.0～3.8calkaBP和3.1～2.7calkaBP碳酸盐含量出现大幅度下降,指示湖泊淡化、水位升高。但在3.8calkaBP左右碳酸盐含量和可溶盐(氯离子与硫酸根离子)含量同时出现峰值,指示出湖泊水体盐度升高、水位出现下降;近1calkaBP以来,碳酸盐与可溶盐含量都呈现逐渐下降趋势,表明湖泊水体逐渐淡化、水位缓慢上升的过程。但近100a来可溶盐含量上升,指示出湖泊水体的不断浓缩和水位下降过程,这和近百年的气候暖干化过程是一致的。兹格塘错沉积岩心碳酸盐含量全新世以来5次极低事件,有力地证明青藏高原西南季风在全新世期间的不稳定性。     

Spatial crime distribution and prediction for sporting events using social media

ABSTRACT

Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement.     

Impact of the water salinity on the hydraulic conductivity of fen peat

Coastal peatlands represent an interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems; their hydrology is affected by salt and fresh water inflow alike. Previous studies on bog peat have shown that pore water salinity can have an impact on the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) of peat because of chemical pore dilation effects. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the impact of higher salinities (up to 3.5% NaCl) on K_s of fen peat. Two experiments employing a constant‐head upward‐flow permeameter and differing in measurement and salinity change duration were conducted. Additionally, a third experiment to determine the impact of water salinity on the release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) of the studied peat type was carried out. The results show a decrease of K_s with time, which does not depend on the water salinity but is differently shaped for different peat types. We assume pore clogging due to a conglomerate of physical, chemical, and biological processes, which rather depend on water movement rate and time than on water salinity. However, an increased water salinity did increase the DOC release. We conclude that salinity‐dependent behaviour of K_s is a function of peat chemistry and that for some peat types, salinity may only affect the DOC release without having a pronounced impact on water flow.     

Remotely sensed agricultural modification improves prediction of suitable habitat for a threatened lizard

The geographical distribution of a species is limited by factors such as climate, resources, disturbances and species interactions. Environmental niche models attempt to encapsulate these limits and represent them spatially but do not always incorporate disturbance factors. We constructed MaxEnt models derived from a remotely sensed vegetation classification with, and without, an agricultural modification variable. Including agricultural modification improved model performance and led to more sites with native vegetation and fewer sites with exotic or degraded native vegetation being predicted suitable for A. parapulchella. Analysis of a relatively well-surveyed sub-area indicated that including agricultural modification led to slightly higher omission rates but markedly fewer likely false positives. Expert assessment of the model based on mapped habitat also suggested that including agricultural modification improved predictions. We estimate that agricultural modification has led to the destruction or decline of approximately 30–35% of the most suitable habitat in the sub-area studied and approximately 20–25% of suitable habitat across the entire study area, located in the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. Environmental niche models for a range of species, particularly habitat specialists, are likely to benefit from incorporating agricultural modification. Our findings are therefore relevant to threatened species planning and management, particularly at finer spatial scales.     

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope fractionation in bivalve (Placopecten magellanicus) larval aragonite

The relationship between stable isotope composition (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) in seawater and in larval shell aragonite of the sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, was investigated in a controlled experiment to determine whether isotopes in larval shell aragonite can be used as a reliable proxy for environmental conditions. The linear relationship between δ¹³C_DIC and δ¹³C_aragonite (r² = 0.97, p < 0.0001, RMSE = 0.18) was:

δ¹³C_DIC=1.15(±0.05)∗δ¹³C_aragonite-0.85(±0.04)     

Composition and sources of extractable organic matter from a sediment core in Lake Kivu,East African rift valley

Lake Kivu is a gas-charged East African rift lake with currently anoxic bottom water. The extractable compounds and residual organic matter of a short sediment core have δ¹³C values typical of lacustrine microbial detritus. The total extracts consist primarily of polar compounds such as n-alkanoic acids, hydroxyalkanoic acids, triterpenoids, steroids and monosaccharides, with minor amounts of n-alkanes and n-alkanols. These tracer compounds and δ¹³C values indicate that the organic matter in the surficial and deeper sedimentary record was dominated by bacterial sources. The sapropelic sediment between these horizons contains organic matter from primarily algal with lesser bacterial input. Terrestrial organic markers are minor in all samples. The major fractions of the compounds in the total extracts were oxidized in the upper water column prior to transit through the anoxic bottom water to sedimentary deposition. The sapropelic horizon may reflect lake water turnover with ventilation or hydrothermal activity and consequently increased algal blooms.     

Dry spell,onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin,Ethiopia

In this study, maximum dry spell length and number of dry spell periods of rainy seasons in the upper Baro-Akobo River basin which is a part of the Nile basin, Western Ethiopia, were investigated to analyse the drought trend. Daily rainfall records of the period 1972–2000 from eight rain gauge stations were used in the analysis, and Mann-Kendall test was used to test trends for significance. Furthermore, the beginning and end of the trend development in the dry spell were also tested using the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test. Results have shown that there is neither clear monotonic trend found in dry spell for the basin nor significant fluctuation in the onset, cession and duration of rainfall in the Baro-Akobo river basin. This sufficiently explains why rain-fed agriculture has suffered little in the western part of Ethiopia. The predictable nature of dry spell pattern may have allowed farmers to adjust to rainfall variability in the basin. Unlike many parts of Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo basin climate variability is not a limiting factor for rain-fed agriculture productivity which may contribute significantly to national food security.