A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.     

Multi-stage evolution of a sub-aerial volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr: S. Jorge Island, Azores Triple Junction

New K/Ar dating and geochemical analyses have been carried out on the WNW–ESE elongated oceanic island of S. Jorge to reconstruct the volcanic evolution of a linear ridge developed close to the Azores triple junction. We show that S. Jorge sub-aerial construction encompasses the last 1.3 Myr, a time interval far much longer than previously reported. The early development of the ridge involved a sub-aerial building phase exposed in the southeast end of the island and now constrained between 1.32 ± 0.02 and 1.21 ± 0.02 Ma. Basic lavas from this older stage are alkaline and enriched in incompatible elements, reflecting partial melting of an enriched mantle source. At least three differentiation cycles from alkaline basalts to mugearites are documented within this stage. The successive episodes of magma rising, storage and evolution suggest an intermittent re-opening of the magma feeding system, possibly due to recurrent tensional or trans-tensional tectonic events. Present data show a gap in sub-aerial volcanism before a second main ongoing building phase starting at about 750 ka. Sub-aerial construction of the S. Jorge ridge migrated progressively towards the west, but involved several overlapping volcanic episodes constrained along the main WNW–ESE structural axis of the island. Mafic magmas erupted during the second phase have been also generated by partial melting of an enriched mantle source. Trace element data suggest, however, variable and lower degrees of partial melting of a shallower mantle domain, which is interpreted as an increasing control of lithospheric deformation on the genesis and extraction of primitive melts during the last 750 kyr. The multi-stage development of the S. Jorge volcanic ridge over the last 1.3 Myr has most likely been greatly influenced by regional tectonics, controlled by deformation along the diffuse boundary between the Nubian and the Eurasian plates, and the increasing effect of sea-floor spreading at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.     

Mixed estimation methods for Halphen distributions with applications in extreme hydrologic events

The Halphen family of distributions is a flexible and complete system to fit sets of observations independent and identically distributed. Recently, it is shown that this family of distributions represents a potential alternative to the generalized extreme value distributions to model extreme hydrological events. The existence of jointly sufficient statistics for parameter estimation leads to optimality of the method of maximum likelihood (ML). Nevertheless, the ML method requires numerical approximations leading to less accurate values. However, estimators by the method of moments (MM) are explicit and their computation is fast. Even though MM method leads to good results, it is not optimal. In order to combine the advantages of the ML (optimality) and MM (efficiency and fast computations), two new mixed methods were proposed in this paper. One of the two methods is direct and the other is iterative, denoted respectively direct mixed method (MMD) and iterative mixed method (MMI). An overall comparison of the four estimation methods (MM, ML, MMD and MMI) was performed using Monte Carlo simulations regarding the three Halphen distributions. Generally, the MMI method can be considered for the three Halphen distributions since it is recommended for a majority of cases encountered in hydrology. The principal idea of the mixed methods MMD and MMI could be generalized for other distributions with complicated density functions.     

Thermal conductive heating in fractured bedrock: Screening calculations to assess the effect of groundwater influx

A two-dimensional semi-analytical heat transfer solution is developed and a parameter sensitivity analysis performed to determine the relative importance of rock material properties (density, thermal conductivity and heat capacity) and hydrogeological properties (hydraulic gradient, fracture aperture, fracture spacing) on the ability to heat fractured rock using thermal conductive heating (TCH). The solution is developed using a Green’s function approach in which an integral equation is constructed for the temperature in the fracture. Subsurface temperature distributions are far more sensitive to hydrogeological properties than material properties. The bulk ground water influx (q) can provide a good estimate of the extent of influx cooling when influx is low to moderate, allowing the prediction of temperatures during heating without specific knowledge of the aperture and spacing of fractures. Target temperatures may not be reached or may be significantly delayed when the groundwater influx is large.     

Integration of GIS and Spatio-temporal Simulation Models: Interoperable Components for Different Simulation Strategies

New technologies for distributed object computing (DOC) challenge new approaches to integrate Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and simulation tools for spatio-temporal modeling. Several standardization initiatives work on specifying interfaces and defining service architectures for appropriate components. Currently, the most promising attempts are represented by the OpenGIS and the High Level Architecture. This paper gives a brief survey of the current state of the emerging standards, highlights the advantages and shortcomings of these attempts, and defines a possible framework for GIS-integrated simulation of spatio-temporal processes. Two abstraction layers provide interfaces for different GIS kernels and allow the integration of different simulation models. A prototype implementation of the specified interfaces shows the integration of analysis tools and two different simulation strategies: a mesoscale boundary layer model based on the Navier-Stokes equation and a cellular automata to simulate air pollutant dispersion.     

The Energy Equation in the Lower Solar Convection Zone

As a consequence of the Taylor–Proudman balance, a balance between the pressure, Coriolis and buoyancy forces in the radial and latitudinal momentum equations (that is expected to be amply satisfied in the lower solar convection zone), the superadiabatic gradient is determined by the rotation law and by an unspecified function of r, say, S(r), where r is the radial coordinate. If the rotation law and S(r) are known, then the solution of the energy equation, performed in this paper in the framework of the ML formalism, leads to a knowledge of the Reynolds stresses, convective fluxes, and meridional motions. The ML-formalism is an extension of the mixing length theory to rotating convection zones, and the calculations also involve the azimuthal momentum equation, from which an expression for the meridional motions in terms of the Reynolds stresses can be derived. The meridional motions are expanded as U _r(r,)=P ₂(cos)₂(r)/r ²+P ₄(cos)₄(r)/r ² +..., and a corresponding equation for U (r,). Here is the polar angle, is the density, and P ₂(cos), P ₄(cos) are Legendre polynomials. A good approximation to the meridional motion is obtained by setting ₄(r)=–H₂(r) with H–1.6, a constant. The value of ₂(r) is negative, i.e., the P ₂ flow rises at the equator and sinks at the poles. For the value of H obtained in the numerical calculations, the meridional motions have a narrow countercell at the poles, and the convective flux has a relative maximum at the poles, a minimum at mid latitudes and a larger maximum at the equator. Both results are in agreement with the observations.