Toward petascale earthquake simulations

Earthquakes are among the most complex terrestrial phenomena, and modeling of earthquake dynamics is one of the most challenging computational problems in science. Computational capabilities have advanced to a state where we can perform wavefield simulations for realistic three-dimensional earth models, and gain more insights into the earthquakes that threaten California and many areas of the world. The Southern California Earthquake Center initiated a major earthquake research program called TeraShake to perform physics-based numerical simulations of earthquake processes for large geographical regions, at high resolution, and for high frequencies. For a large scale simulation such as TeraShake, optimization problems tend to emerge that are not significant in smaller scale simulations. This involves both large parallel computation and also massive data management and visualization coordination. In this paper, we describe how we performed single-processor optimization of the TeraShake AWM application, optimization of the I/O handling, and optimization of initialization. We also look at the challenges presented by run-time data archive management and visualization. The improvements made to the TeraShake AWM code enabled execution on the 40k IBM Blue Gene processors and have created a community code that can be used by seismologists to perform petascale earthquake simulations.     

Cliff-top storm deposits on Banneg Island, Brittany, France: Effects of giant waves in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean

This study is based on the morphosedimentary analysis of the cliff-top storm deposits accumulated on the coast of Banneg Island located in the archipelago of Molène (Brittany, France). These CTSDs comprise large, tabular clasts quarried from the upper part of the cliff and the backing scoured platform by giant oceanic storm waves impacting directly the western coast of the island. An analysis of the distribution and the geomorphology of these accumulations were carried out using the DGPS topographic surveys. Most of the clasts are organised into imbricate boulder clusters or ridges deposited between 7.5 and 14.5 masl. 52 accumulations were inventoried from the north to the south of the island, representing a global volume of 1000 m³. The median size of the clasts calculated is equivalent to 0.8 × 0.6 × 0.4 m and a weight of 0.6 t. The largest one measuring 5.3 × 3.9 × 0.5 m (≈ 32 t) is located in the centre of the island (ridge #28). It has been deposited 14 m inland from the edge of the cliff at the elevation of 9 m. Sediment analysis shows that clast sizes become smaller with increasing distance from the shoreline, but there is no relationship between the sorting and the distance inland. A study of the hydrodynamic conditions inducing clast transport was undertaken by an analysis of the wave data from the 1989 to the 1990 winter storms. Models of wave runup indicate that their highest water levels may have reached up to 19 masl, 5 to 10 m higher than the top of the cliff. Submersion by giant storm waves has been more important and frequent in the centre and the south of the island. Wave data over the 1979 to the 2007 period shows that no events as powerful as those of the 1989 to the 1990 winter were recorded during the last 30 years. Yet, it appears that the 1979–1990 decade was characterized by important morphogeneous events while the following period (1990–2007) has experienced a sharp decrease in storm events. These variations could be attributed to the inversion from a negative towards a positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

Phase relationship between sea level and abrupt climate change

Direct traces of past sea levels are based on the elevation of old coral reefs at times of sea level highstands. However, these measurements are discontinuous and cannot be easily correlated with climate records from ice cores. In this study we show a new approach to recognizing the imprint of sea level changes in continuous sediment records taken from the continental slope at locations that were continuously submerged, even during periods of sea level lowstand. By using a sediment core precisely synchronized with Greenland ice cores, we were able to recognize major floods of the Mediterranean continental shelf over the past 270 kyr. During the last glacial period five flooding events were observed at the onset of the warmest Greenland interstadials. Consistent correspondence between warm climate episodes and eustatic sea level rises shows that these global flooding events were generated by pronounced melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, due to rapid intensification of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.The method described in this study opens a new perspective for inter-hemispheric synchronization of marine climate records if applied in other continental margins from the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial regions.     

Extinction, survival and recovery of corals from the Triassic to Middle Jurassic time

Recognizing extinction events and determining their cause at the Triassic/Jurassic (T/J) transition and near the Pliensbachian–Toarcian (Lower Jurassic) boundary is a field of growing interest. We provide arguments for these events through a literature based new evaluation of coral diversity from Triassic to Dogger and a new palaeobiogeographical map. The T/J extinction of corals is clearly related to the breakdown of reef environments. Origination curves show that Hettangian (the lowest Jurassic stage) was not only a survival phase but already rather a recovery phase. Post-extinction evolution of reefs and their survival only in the northernmost margin of the Tethys support the hothouse hypothesis for the T/J extinction event. During Pliensbachian, many new taxa appear, but mostly solitary corals, not really framebuilders. Many of these taxa do not occur anymore during the following stages. The new increase in diversity is related to the development of Bajocian (Middle Jurassic) reefs.     

Time scales of DNAPL migration in sandy aquifers examined via numerical simulation

The time required for dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) to cease migrating following release to the subsurface is a valuable component of a site conceptual model. This study uses numerical simulation to investigate the migration of six different DNAPLs in sandy aquifers. The most influential parameters governing migration cessation time are the density and viscosity of the DNAPL and the mean hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. Releases of between 1 and 40 drums of chlorinated solvent DNAPLs, characterized by relatively high density and low viscosity, require on the order of months to a few years to cease migrating in a heterogeneous medium sand aquifer having an average hydraulic conductivity of 7.4 x 10(-3) cm/s. In contrast to this, the release of 20 drums of coal tar (rho(D)= 1061 kg/m(3), micro(D)= 0.161 Pa.s) requires more than 100 years to cease migrating in the same aquifer. Altering the mean hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer results in a proportional change in cessation times. Parameters that exhibit relatively little influence on migration time scales are the DNAPL-water interfacial tension, release volume, source capillary pressure, mean aquifer porosity, and ambient ground water hydraulic gradient. This study also demonstrates that low-density DNAPLs (e.g., coal tar) give rise to greater amounts of lateral spreading and greater amounts of pooling on capillary barriers than high-density DNAPLs such as trichloroethylene or tetrachloroethylene.     

Internal and forced variability along a section between Greenland and Portugal in the CLIPPER Atlantic model

Numerical models are used to estimate the meridional overturning and transports along the paths of two hydrographic cruises, carried out in 1997 and 2002 from Greenland to Portugal. We have examined the influence of the different paths of the two cruises and found that it could explain 0.4 to 2 Sv of difference in overturning (the precise value is model-dependent). Models show a decrease in the overturning circulation between 1997 and 2002, with different amplitudes. The CLIPPER ATL6 model reproduces well the observed weakening of the overturning in density coordinates between the cruises; in the model, the change is due to the combination of interannual and high-frequency forcing and internal variability associated with eddies and meanders. Examination of the -coordinate overturning reveals model–data discrepancies: the vertical structure in the models does not change as much as the observed one. The East Greenland current variability is mainly wind-forced in the ATL6 model, while fluctuations due to eddies and instabilities explain a large part of the North Atlantic Current variability. The time-residual transport of dense water and heat due to eddy correlations between currents and properties is small across this section, which is normal to the direction of the main current.     

Assessing climate change vulnerability in the arctic using geographic information services in spatial data infrastructures

Timely knowing about climate change impacts is crucial to adequately plan and undertake adaptive measures and thus to effectively lower vulnerability. This requires gathering and integrating geographic information on exposure, local response mechanisms and stakeholders’ concerns. Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI) are internet-based information systems that facilitate the exchange and use of distributed geographic information. This paper presents the application of SDI to climate change assessment by implementing a generic methodology for the quantification of vulnerability to climate change. The resulting integrated tool allows scientists, stakeholders and decision makers to communicate, assess and improve information about vulnerability to climate change. We show how emerging internet technologies and SDI in particular, make a new interactive approach of assessing vulnerability to climate change possible. Vulnerability was quantified based on an active stakeholder involvement by incorporating their varying perceptions, by allowing them to provide feedback and by supporting the acquisition of stakeholders’ knowledge. However, the application showed that to be effective, efforts to achieve and maintain interoperability between the various scientific disciplines should be kept integrated within mainstream IT developments.