Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Past connections and present similarities in slave ownership and fossil fuel usage

The first part of the paper demonstrates the connection between the abolition of slavery and the Industrial Revolution: steam power changed the perception of labour; new techniques facilitated diffusion of pro-abolition pamphlets; fewer threats to basic existence resulting from industrial advances fostered sensibilities and moral standards toward abolitionism; and, through industrial development, the North grasped victory in the American Civil War. The second part presents similarities between societies in the past that have used slave labour and those in the present that use fossil fuels. It argues that slaves and fossil-fuelled machines play(ed) similar economic and social roles: both slave societies and developed countries externalise(d) labour and both slaves and modern machines free(d) their owners from daily chores. Consequently, we are as dependent on fossil fuels as slave societies were dependent on bonded labour. It also suggests that, in differing ways, suffering resulting (directly) from slavery and (indirectly) from the excessive burning of fossil fuels are now morally comparable. When we emit carbon dioxide at a rate that exceeds what the ecosystem can absorb, when we deplete non-renewable resources, we indirectly cause suffering to other human beings. Similarly, cheap oil facilitates imports of goods from countries with little social protection and hence help externalise oppression. The conclusion draws on the lessons which may be learned by Climate Change campaigners from the campaigns to abolish slavery: environmental apathy can be opposed effectively if we learn from what worked in the fight against this inhuman institution.     

Improving a tree-ring reconstruction from west-central Scandinavia: 900?years of warm-season temperatures

Dendroclimatological sampling of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) has been made in the province of J?mtland, in the west-central Scandinavian mountains, since the 1970s. The tree-ring width (TRW) chronology spans several thousand years and has been used to reconstruct June?CAugust temperatures back to 1632 bc. A maximum latewood density (MXD) dataset, covering the period ad 1107?C1827 (with gap 1292?C1315) was presented in the 1980s by Fritz Schweingruber. Here we combine these historical MXD data with recently collected MXD data covering ad 1292?C2006 into a single reconstruction of April?CSeptember temperatures for the period ad 1107?C2006. Regional curve standardization (RCS) provides more low-frequency variability than ??non-RCS?? and stronger correlation with local seasonal temperatures (51% variance explained). The MXD chronology shows a stronger relationship with temperatures than the TRW data, but the two chronologies show similar multi-decadal variations back to ad 1500. According to the MXD chronology, the period since ad 1930 and around ad 1150?C1200 were the warmest during the last 900?years. Due to large uncertainties in the early part of the combined MXD chronology, it is not possible to conclude which period was the warmest. More sampling of trees growing near the tree-line is needed to further improve the MXD chronology.     

An Investigation into Ridge-Top Turbulence Characteristics During Neutral and Weakly Stable Conditions: Velocity Spectra and Isotropy

An investigation into high Reynolds number turbulent flow over a ridge top in New Zealand is described based on high-resolution in-situ measurements, using ultrasonic anemometers for two separate locations on the same ridge with differing upwind terrain complexity. Twelve 5-h periods during neutrally stratified and weakly stable atmospheric conditions with strong wind speeds were sampled at 20 Hz. Large (and small) turbulent length scales were recorded for both vertical and longitudinal velocity components in the range of 7–23 m (0.7–3.3 m) for the vertical direction and 628–1111 m (10.5–14.5 m) for the longitudinal direction. Large-scale eddy sizes scaled to the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) numerical model simulated boundary-layer thickness for both sites, while small-scale turbulent features were a function of the complexity of the upwind terrain. Evidence of a multi-scale turbulent structure was obtained at the more complex terrain site, while an assessment of the three-dimensional isotropy assumption in the inertial subrange of the spectrum showed anisotropic turbulence at the less complex site and evidence of isotropic turbulence at the more complex site, with a spectral ratio convergence deviating from the 4/3 or unity values suggested by previous theory and practice. Existing neutral spectral models can represent locations along the ridge top with simple upwind complexity, especially for the vertical wind spectra, but sites with more orographic complexity and strong vertical wind speeds are often poorly represented using these models. Measured spectra for the two sites exhibited no significant diurnal variation and very similar large-scale and small-scale turbulent length scales for each site, but the turbulence energy measured by the variances revealed a strong diurnal difference.     

Comparison of models calculating the sky view factor used for urban climate investigations

The sky view factor (SVF) describes the surface geometry and is a commonly used and important measure in urban climate investigations whose aim is the exploration of effects of a complex urban surface on climatological processes in built-up areas. A selection of methods and models for calculating the SVF was compared. For this purpose, fish eye images were taken at several locations in the city of Szeged, southern Hungary. The fish eye images equidistantly follow linear transects to cover a range of SVF values and to analyze the reaction of the methods to a continuously changing environment. The fish eye pictures were evaluated by three methods: the method according to Steyn (Atmos-Ocean 18(3):245?C258, 1980) implemented in a GIS-Script, the ??Edit free sky view factor?? tool of the RayMan model and BMSkyView. The SVF values at the coordinates of the fish eye pictures were calculated with three numerical models (SkyHelios, ArcView SVF extension, and SOLWEIG) with a 3D building data base as input. After comparing the results of the first run, a deviation occurs. The deviation disappears after implementing an option to include a weighting factor in some of the models.     

Thermally induced wind patterns in the Sahelian city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

The urban surface wind field in the dry-tropical city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso was studied based on data collected at one urban and one suburban station during early dry season. An intra-urban thermal breeze, creating almost opposite wind directions at the two sites, was found during nights with high atmospheric stability. The high atmospheric stability suggests a decoupling of the surface wind layer from the layer above, allowing the wind system to develop due to the strong intra-urban temperature gradients in the city. Frequent temporary breakdowns of the thermal wind system were noticed, generally generating a turn in wind direction towards that of the regional wind, thus indicating a re-coupling with a stronger wind flow in the wind layer above.     

A statistical analysis of the daily precipitation over Serbia: trends and indices

A statistical analysis of the daily maximum and mean monthly precipitation measured at ten meteorological stations in Serbia during the period 1949?C2007 is presented. Although the means of the daily maximum and monthly precipitation varied throughout the year, their ratio was almost uniform, with an average value of 32.6% for Serbia. The precipitation events within each year were ranked and then the trends on the ten wettest days of the year were assessed. Averaged across Serbia, the wettest day of the year produces 41.3?mm of precipitation and accounted for 6.3% of the total annual precipitation. Taken together, 35.5% (232.0?mm) of the total annual precipitation fell during the ten wettest days of the year. Over the course of the twentieth century, the average annual precipitation on the wettest day across Serbia increased by nearly 9%. Also, averaged across Serbia, statistically insignificant increasing trends were found on each of the ten wettest days of the year. Furthermore, four climate indices were analysed. Heavy precipitation indices (i.e., RR20 and R95T) increased in Serbia at the end of the twentieth century and thereafter.     

Spatio-temporal changes in land cover and aquatic macrophytes of the Danube floodplain lake

The aquatic vegetation of ?í?ov Lake in the Danube floodplain, which is listed in the Ramsar Convention, was investigated to address three main questions: (1) how have landscape composition and the structures of the lake and its buffer zone changed from the mid-20th century; (2) how have species richness and the abundance of the aquatic macrophyte assemblage in this lake ecosystem changed over the last 34 years; and (3) which landscape metrics can best explain these temporal changes for floating-leaved macrophytes? Two methodological approaches, remote sensing and botanical field surveys, were applied. Historical (1949, 1970, 1990) and contemporary (2006) aerial photographs were analysed to determine land cover. Landscape configuration and structure were analysed using eight landscape metrics selected in advance to measure spatio-temporal changes and the fragmentation of the lake ecosystem and its corresponding buffer zone. The species diversity, abundance and distribution of true aquatic macrophytes were surveyed eleven times in five survey stretches between 1973 and 2007.At the landscape level, a decrease in the area covered by floating-leaved macrophytes, as well as an increase in open water surface and fragmentation of the land cover classes in the lake ecosystem, were recorded from 1949 to 2006. Overall, 30 true aquatic macrophytes were found from 1973 to 2007. Species richness did not change considerably, but the abundance of aquatic species fluctuated over the years. Three groups of true aquatic vegetation, based on common structural characteristics, were found in 1973–1983, 1989–2002, and 2004–2007 over the last 34 years. The landscape metrics NP, PD, LPI, and SHDI, which all express patterns of landscape fragmentation mostly indicate temporal changes in floating-leaved macrophytes.     

Relationships between surface-active organic substances, chlorophyll a and nutrients in the northern Adriatic Sea

Surface-active organic substances (SAS), nutrients, chlorophyll a (Chl a), dissolved oxygen (O₂), salinity (S) and temperature (T) were measured approximately monthly in the northern Adriatic Sea (NA) during two years. Results were elaborated for two stations of different trophic status. Exhaustive statistical examinations of measured variables were performed to contribute to better understanding of the processes and interdependence of the measured parameters. The results of those analyses allowed the region to be described based on several groups of data relevant for particular processes. Chl a appear to be independent parameter; orthosilicate, nitrite and ammonium represent the parameter group most relevant for regeneration processes; the second group includes nutrients dominant in freshwater inputs (orthophosphate and nitrate), while in the third group are parameters related to primary production processes (T, O₂, organic phosphorus and SAS). Probably due to time lags between nutrient uptake and phytoplankton growth as well as between cells growth/division and SAS release, both, the correlation between nutrients and Chl a and the correlation between Chl a and SAS were not statistically significant. Although significantly higher nutrient and Chl a concentrations were found in the mesotrophic western part of the region in comparison to the oligotrophic eastern part, the SAS concentration differences were less marked. It is assumed that more OM is produced, but also at the same time remineralized, at the mesotrophic western part, leading to higher concentrations of regenerated nutrients there. Presence of different phytoplankton taxa and/or fractions (micro and nano) at the two stations may have also contributed to minimize the difference in SAS contents. Higher SAS acidities were noticed in the mesotrophic than in the oligotrophic part.     

六合体应变干扰因素与地震短临异常特征研究

利用江苏省南京市六合地震台钻孔体应变2003年1月1日至2008年12月31日的数字化观测资料,对气压和降雨这二种主要干扰因素的基本变化规律进行分析,讨论了发生在该台预报效能范围内的3次中强地震的短临异常特征.结果表明:气压变化在各个季节对观测值均有较大的影响,以短周期的正相关干扰影响为主,在时间上往往表现为准同步,相关系数能达到0.6～0.7以上;降雨对体应变的影响与降雨过程、降雨量及降雨时间等有密切的关系,持续降雨只有积累到一定程度才能促成固体潮畸变,这一过程虽较复杂,但仍有一定的规律可循.六合体应变对区域内中强地震有1～2月的突出短临异常变化.