Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.     

The Influence of Bioturbation on Iron and Sulphur Cycling in Marine Sediments: A Model Analysis

The geochemical cycles of iron and sulphur in marine sediments are strongly intertwined and give rise to a complex network of redox and precipitation reactions. Bioturbation refers to all modes of transport of particles and solutes induced by larger organisms, and in the present-day seafloor, bioturbation is one of the most important factors controlling the biogeochemical cycling of iron and sulphur. To better understand how bioturbation controls Fe and S cycling, we developed reactive transport model of a coastal sediment impacted by faunal activity. Subsequently, we performed a model sensitivity analysis, separately investigating the two different transport modes of bioturbation, i.e. bio-mixing (solid particle transport) and bio-irrigation (enhanced solute transport). This analysis reveals that bio-mixing and bio-irrigation have distinct—and largely opposing effects on both the iron and sulphur cycles. Bio-mixing enhances transport between the oxic and suboxic zones, thus promoting the reduction of oxidised species (e.g. iron oxyhydroxides) and the oxidation of reduced species (e.g. iron sulphides). Through the re-oxidation of iron sulphides, bio-mixing strongly enhances the recycling of Fe and S between their reduced and oxidised states. Bio-irrigation on the other hand removes reduced solutes, i.e. ferrous iron and free sulphide, from the sediment pore water. These reduced species are then reoxidised in the overlying water and not recycled within the sediment column, which leads to a decrease in Fe and S recycling. Overall, our results demonstrate that the ecology of the macrofauna (inducing bio-mixing or bio-irrigation, or both) matters when assessing their impact on sediment geochemistry. This finding seems particularly relevant for sedimentary cycling across Cambrian transition, when benthic fauna started colonizing and reworking the seafloor.     

Influence of the Mississippi River on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudo-nitzschia</Emphasis> spp. Abundance and Toxicity in Louisiana Coastal Waters

The presence of domoic acid (DA) toxin from multiple species of Pseudo-nitzschia is a concern in the highly productive food webs of the northern Gulf of Mexico. We documented the Pseudo-nitzschia presence, abundance, blooms, and toxicity over three years along a transect ～100 km west of the Mississippi River Delta on the continental shelf. Pseudo-nitzschia were present throughout the year and occurred in high abundances (>10⁴ cells l^?1) in the early spring months during high Mississippi River (MSR) flow (～20,000 m³ s^?1) but were most abundant (>10⁶ cells l^?1) when MSR discharge was relatively lower among the spring months. A high particulate toxin production (maximum reaching 13 μg DA l^?1) was associated with the high cell abundances and exceeded, by an order of magnitude, prior reports of particulate DA concentrations in Louisiana coastal waters. Differences in Pseudo-nitzschia peak times and its toxicity were correlated mainly with the timing and magnitude of MSR discharge and changes in associated parameters such as nutrient stoichiometry and salinity. A negative relationship between high MSR discharge and Pseudo-nitzschia and particulate DA concentrations was documented. These riverine dynamics have the potential to influence DA contamination in pelagic and benthic food webs in the coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.     

Bioadsorption by sugarcane bagasse for the reduction in oil and grease content in aqueous effluent

Several techniques have been used to reduce the oil and grease content in aqueous streams; one excellent is bioadsorption. With a view to provide a sustainable method for the treatment of oily effluents, the aim of this study was to evaluate sugarcane bagasse as bioadsorbent to reduce the oil and grease content of aqueous effluents. Analysis of the material was performed, and the adsorption experiments were in a batch system, using a synthetic effluent. The results showed that the kinetic equilibrium occurred in 0.08 h of contact. The study of influence of pH of the aqueous phase and the temperature showed that the adsorption capacity was proportional to the pH value, but inversely proportional to the temperature. The adsorption isotherm was obtained at a temperature of 298.15 K using the Langmuir and Langmuir–Freundlich models, and the maximum adsorption capacity obtained was 6.65 kg of hydrocarbon per kg of bioadsorbent. It was verified that sugarcane bagasse represents an excellent material for application in the treatment of oily aqueous effluents, since it is associated with low cost and a high adsorption capacity. The variation in the adsorption capacity observed as a function of pH of the aqueous phase was not found to be significant. This is an important characteristic of the material in terms of its industrial application, verifying the possibility for its implementation in any treatment process, demonstrating the great potential of sugarcane bagasse for use as a sustainable alternative in the reduction in oil and grease in aqueous effluents.