Historical channel narrowing along the Rio Grande near Albuquerque,New Mexico in response to peak discharge reductions and engineering: magnitude and uncertainty of change from air photo measurements

Over the last century, geomorphic processes along the Middle Rio Grande have been altered by flood control and bank stabilization projects, intensified land and water use, and climate change. In response to potential risks to infrastructure and ecological integrity, recent (1985–2008) adjustment was investigated and historic (1918–1985) changes in Rio Grande channel planform through the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area were reviewed, especially in relation to changes in annual peak discharge and river engineering measures. Using a GIS, channel characteristics were digitized from georeferenced photographs and analyzed with particular attention to quantifying potential measurement error and its propagation. Error associated with average channel widths and channel area ranged between 4 and 13%. For smaller polygons, e.g. islands, error was higher (11 to 40% for width and >200% for area) because width error is large relative to polygon width. Between 1918 and 1963, average channel widths decreased 8 m/yr, from 516 ± 67 m to 176 ± 7 m, mostly due to decreasing peak flows and the implementation of flood control and other engineering measures. From 1985 to 2008, widths decreased 0·7 m/yr, from 176 ± 23 m to 146 ± 5 m, accompanied by an increase in vegetated island area which largely coincided with low flow periods. Narrowing was concentrated at tributary inputs and in the upstream part of the reach, where bedload trapping by Cochiti Dam has caused degradation. Bank protection structures and dense vegetation limit bank erosion in the reach, but erosion is significant where expanding islands, incision, and increased meandering force water against banks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arsenic repartitioning during biogenic sulfidization and transformation of ferrihydrite

Iron (hydr)oxides are strong sorbents of arsenic (As) that undergo reductive dissolution and transformation upon reaction with dissolved sulfide. Here we examine the transformation and dissolution of As-bearing ferrihydrite and subsequent As repartitioning amongst secondary phases during biotic sulfate reduction. Columns initially containing As(V)-ferrihydrite coated sand, inoculated with the sulfate reducing bacteria Desulfovibrio vulgaris (Hildenborough), were eluted with artificial groundwater containing sulfate and lactate. Rapid and consistent sulfate reduction coupled with lactate oxidation is observed at low As(V) loading (10% of the adsorption maximum). The dominant Fe solid phase transformation products at low As loading include amorphous FeS within the zone of sulfate reduction (near the inlet of the column) and magnetite downstream where Fe(II)_(aq) concentrations increase; As is displaced from the zone of sulfidogenesis and Fe(III)_(s) depletion. At high As(V) loading (50% of the adsorption maximum), sulfate reduction and lactate oxidation are initially slow but gradually increase over time, and all As(V) is reduced to As(III) by the end of experimentation. With the higher As loading, green rust(s), as opposed to magnetite, is a dominant Fe solid phase product. Independent of loading, As is strongly associated with magnetite and residual ferrihydrite, while being excluded from green rust and iron sulfide. Our observations illustrate that sulfidogenesis occurring in proximity with Fe (hydr)oxides induce Fe solid phase transformation and changes in As partitioning; formation of As sulfide minerals, in particular, is inhibited by reactive Fe(III) or Fe(II) either through sulfide oxidation or complexation.     

A parallel ensemble-based framework for reservoir history matching and uncertainty characterization

We present a parallel framework for history matching and uncertainty characterization based on the Kalman filter update equation for the application of reservoir simulation. The main advantages of ensemble-based data assimilation methods are that they can handle large-scale numerical models with a high degree of nonlinearity and large amount of data, making them perfectly suited for coupling with a reservoir simulator. However, the sequential implementation is computationally expensive as the methods require relatively high number of reservoir simulation runs. Therefore, the main focus of this work is to develop a parallel data assimilation framework with minimum changes into the reservoir simulator source code. In this framework, multiple concurrent realizations are computed on several partitions of a parallel machine. These realizations are further subdivided among different processors, and communication is performed at data assimilation times. Although this parallel framework is general and can be used for different ensemble techniques, we discuss the methodology and compare results of two algorithms, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the ensemble smoother (ES). Computational results show that the absolute runtime is greatly reduced using a parallel implementation versus a serial one. In particular, a parallel efficiency of about 35 % is obtained for the EnKF, and an efficiency of more than 50 % is obtained for the ES.     

The use of general circulation models in climate impact analysis — A preliminary study of the impacts of a CO2- induced climatic change on West European agriculture

An investigation is made of the possible impacts of a climatic change (induced by a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration) on the European agricultural sector. Two general circulation models have been used to develop climatic change scenarios for the European study area. From the scenarios, information was obtained concerning the possible behavior of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and relative humidity in the altered climatic state. This meteorological information was then employed in two separate crop-weather models - an empirical/statistical model (for winter wheat) and a simple simulation model (for biomass potential). This type of approach represents a considerable departure from that employed by previous large-scale climate impact studies. Both the seasonal and regional components of a possible climatic change are incorporated directly in the two crop-weather models. The results of this investigation demonstrate that a simple crop-weather simulation model may be more suitable for the purposes of agricultural impact analysis than the linear regression models frequently used in such studies. In order for such an impact analysis to be accepted as a valid scientific experiment, a full presentation of the underlying assumptions and uncertainties is essential.     

A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.     

Magma batches in the Timber Mountain magmatic system, Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field, Nevada, USA

The common occurrence of compositionally and mineralogically zoned ash flow sheets, such as those of the Timber Mountain Group, provides evidence that the source magma bodies were chemically and thermally zoned. The Rainier Mesa and Ammonia Tanks tuffs of the Timber Mountain Group are both large volume (1200 and 900 km³, respectively) chemically zoned (57–78 wt.% SiO₂) ash flow sheets. Evidence of distinct magma batches in the Timber Mountain system are based on: (1) major- and trace-element variations of whole pumice fragments; (2) major-element variations in phenocrysts; (3) major-element variations in glass matrix; and (4) emplacement temperatures calculated from Fe-Ti oxides and feldspars. There are three distinct groups of pumice fragments in the Rainier Mesa Tuff: a low-silica group and two high-silica groups (a low-Th and a high-Th group). These groups cannot be related by crystal fractionation. The low-silica portion of the Rainier Mesa Tuff is distinct from the low-silica portion of the overlying Ammonia Tanks Tuff, even though the age difference is less than 200,000 years. Three distinct groups occur in the Ammonia Tanks Tuff: a low-silica, intermediate-silica and a high-silica group. Part of the high-silica group may be due to mixing of the two high-silica Rainier Mesa groups. The intermediate-silica group may be due to mixing of the low- and high-silica Ammonia Tanks groups. Three distinct emplacement temperatures occur in the Rainier Mesa Tuff (869, 804, 723 °C) that correspond to the low-silica, high-Th and low-Th magma batches, respectively. These temperature differences could not have been maintained for any length of time in the magma chamber (cf. Turner, J.S., Campbell, I.H., 1986. Convection and mixing in magma chambers. Earth-Sci. Rev. 23, 255–352; Martin, D., Griffiths, R.W., Campbell, I.H., 1987. Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers. Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 96, 465–475) and therefore eruption must have occurred soon after emplacement of the magma batches into the chamber. Emplacement temperatures of the pumice fragments from the Ammonia Tanks Tuff show a continuous gradient of temperatures with composition. This continuous temperature gradient is consistent with the model of storage of magma batches in the Ammonia Tanks group that have undergone both thermal and chemical diffusion.     

The Hubble constant from galaxy lenses: impacts of triaxiality and model degeneracies

The Hubble constant can be constrained using the time delays between multiple images of gravitationally lensed sources. In some notable cases, typical lensing analyses assuming isothermal galaxy density profiles produce low values for the Hubble constant, inconsistent with the result of the HST Key Project  (72 ± 8 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹)  . Possible systematics in the values of the Hubble constant derived from galaxy lensing systems can result from a number of factors, for example, neglect of environmental effects, assumption of isothermality, or contamination by line-of-sight structures. One additional potentially important factor is the triaxial structure of the lensing galaxy halo; most lens models account for halo shape simply by perturbing the projected spherical lensing potential, an approximation that is often necessary but that is inadequate at the levels of triaxiality predicted in the cold dark matter paradigm. To quantify the potential error introduced by this assumption in estimates of the Hubble parameter, we strongly lens a distant galaxy through a sample of triaxial softened isothermal haloes and use an Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to constrain the lensing halo profile and the Hubble parameter from the resulting multiple image systems. We explore the major degeneracies between the Hubble parameter and several parameters of the lensing model, finding that without a way to accurately break these degeneracies accurate estimates of the Hubble parameter are not possible. Crucially, we find that triaxiality does not significantly bias estimates of the Hubble constant, and offer an analytic explanation for this behaviour in the case of isothermal profiles. Neglected triaxial halo shape cannot contribute to the low Hubble constant values derived in a number of galaxy lens systems.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010. During this period, 407 earthquakes and 85 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 19 events with M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2010 was below the average over the previous 35 years. The two most noteworthy earthquakes were the M_L 3.4 Barrhorn event near Sankt Niklaus (VS) and the M_L 3.0 event of Feldkirch, both of which produced shaking of intensity IV.     

THE ROLE OF CARTOGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION IN PRESENT-DAY SOCIETY

A paper presented at a symposium on “Communication and Society” (Inter-university Center for Postgraduate Studies, University of Dubrovnik, May 13-24, 1985) explores means for extending the use and effectiveness of maps in everyday life. Primary emphasis is on improving overall cartographic communication and devising more effective methods for using maps to augment other communications media, especially newspapers and television. Submitted by the author to the Editor-in-Chief for publication.     

Development of a foraminifera-based transfer function in the Basque marshes, N. Spain: Implications for sea-level studies in the Bay of Biscay

In order to reconstruct former sea level we have developed a foraminifera-based transfer function using three models based on a modern dataset of 59 samples and 23 species obtained from four Basque marshes in Northern Spain. The relationship between observed and foraminifera-predicted elevation illustrated the strong performance of the transfer function (r²_jack ranges from 0.74 to 0.81). These results indicated that precise reconstructions of former sea levels are possible (error ranges from 0.11 to 0.19 m). The transfer function was used to calibrate the foraminiferal assemblages collected from a 50 cm salt marsh core. We placed the foraminifera-based reconstructions into a temporal framework using ¹³⁷Cs, Pb concentrations, and ²¹⁰Pb-derived sediment accumulation rates. The resulting relative sea-level curve is in good agreement with regional tide-gauge data. Both instrumental data and microfossil records suggest a rate of relative sea-level rise of approximately 2 mm yr^− 1 for the 20th century.