A geographic approach for combining social media and authoritative data towards identifying useful information for disaster management

In recent years, social media emerged as a potential resource to improve the management of crisis situations such as disasters triggered by natural hazards. Although there is a growing research body concerned with the analysis of the usage of social media during disasters, most previous work has concentrated on using social media as a stand-alone information source, whereas its combination with other information sources holds a still underexplored potential. This article presents an approach to enhance the identification of relevant messages from social media that relies upon the relations between georeferenced social media messages as Volunteered Geographic Information and geographic features of flood phenomena as derived from authoritative data (sensor data, hydrological data and digital elevation models). We apply this approach to examine the micro-blogging text messages of the Twitter platform (tweets) produced during the River Elbe Flood of June 2013 in Germany. This is performed by means of a statistical analysis aimed at identifying general spatial patterns in the occurrence of flood-related tweets that may be associated with proximity to and severity of flood events. The results show that messages near (up to 10 km) to severely flooded areas have a much higher probability of being related to floods. In this manner, we conclude that the geographic approach proposed here provides a reliable quantitative indicator of the usefulness of messages from social media by leveraging the existing knowledge about natural hazards such as floods, thus being valuable for disaster management in both crisis response and preventive monitoring.     

Near-term priorities for the science, policy and practice of Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP)

There is currently a rare opportunity to inform emerging efforts to implement coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) in the United States, Europe and elsewhere around the world. In particular, the newly formed US National Ocean Council is developing a strategic action plan for CMSP over the next 18-24 months. In order to identify priority needs for significantly advancing CMSP, a group of experts in the science, policy and practice of CMSP developed recommendations for (1) process development, (2) communication and engagement efforts, (3) tradeoff and valuation analyses, and (4) decision support. Some of these priorities are supported by existing activities in the United States and elsewhere. Others have yet to be addressed and merit immediate attention.     

Diel variation of dissolved organic carbon during large flow events in a lowland river

Diel variation in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) within lotic systems has been reported on numerous occasions. However, to our knowledge there has been no published work on diel DOC variation within lowland rivers during high flow events. We sampled DOC at 4 h intervals from two sites across two distinct flow regimes in the regulated lower Namoi River, Australia. This included a large flood (mean flow 224 m³ s⁻¹ and a peak flow of 376 m³ s⁻¹) sampled every 4 h for 10 consecutive days. DOC concentrations were significantly greater at night than during the day (P < 0.05) and the mean DOC concentration was 23.4 mg L⁻¹ at night compared to 18.9 mg L⁻¹ during daylight hours. The magnitude and duration of flow within this lowland river system and the mobilisation of large quantities of allochthonous carbon appeared to play a role in increasing DOC concentration and the diel difference.     

Reconstruction of Tsunami Inland Propagation on December 26, 2004 in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, through Field Investigations

This paper presents the results from an extensive field data collection effort following the December 26, 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Banda Aceh, Sumatra. The data were collected under the auspices of TSUNARISQUE, a joint French-Indonesian program dedicated to tsunami research and hazard mitigation, which has been active since before the 2004 event. In total, data from three months of field investigations are presented, which detail important aspects of the tsunami inundation dynamics in Banda Aceh. These include measurements of runup, tsunami wave heights, flow depths, flow directions, event chronology and building damage patterns. The result is a series of detailed inundation maps of the northern and western coasts of Sumatra including Banda Aceh and Lhok Nga. Among the more important findings, we obtained consistent accounts that approximately ten separate waves affected the region after the earthquake; this indicates a high-frequency component of the tsunami wave energy in the extreme near-field. The largest tsunami wave heights were on the order of 35 m with a maximum runup height of 51 m. This value is the highest runup value measured in human history for a seismically generated tsunami. In addition, our field investigations show a significant discontinuity in the tsunami wave heights and flow depths along a line approximately 3 km inland, which the authors interpret to be the location of the collapse of the main tsunami bore caused by sudden energy dissipation. The propagating bore looked like a breaking wave from the landward side although it has distinct characteristics. Patterns of building damage are related to the location of the propagating bore with overall less damage to buildings beyond the line where the bore collapsed. This data set was built to be of use to the tsunami community for the purposes of calibrating and improving existing tsunami inundation models, especially in the analysis of extreme near-field events.     

Strengthened East Asian summer monsoons during a period of high-latitude warmth? Isotopic evidence from Mio-Pliocene fossil mammals and soil carbonates from northern China

The East Asian monsoons have fluctuated in concert with high-latitude warmth during the past several hundred thousand years, with humid summer monsoon-dominant climates characterizing warm intervals, including interglacials and interstadials, and arid winter monsoon-dominant climates characterizing cool intervals, including glacials and stadials. Of the states comprising the mid-Pleistocene to recent climatic regime, interglacials are most similar in terms of high latitude ice volumes and temperatures to those extant during the late Miocene and early Pliocene. Thus, an important question is whether Mio-Pliocene climates in northern China were analogous to a hypothetical ‘prolonged interglacial state,’ with increased summer monsoon precipitation and expansion of forest and steppe environments at the expense of desert environments.We utilize new and previously published carbon isotopic data from fossil teeth and soil carbonates to place constraints on paleovegetation distributions and to help infer the behavior of the monsoon system between ～ 7 and 4 Ma. We find that plants using the C₄ photosynthetic pathway—which today are largely grasses found in regions with warm season precipitation—were present in northern China by late Miocene time, demonstrating that the C₄ expansion in China was not significantly delayed compared to the global C₄ event. During the late Miocene–early Pliocene interval, soil carbonate and tooth enamel δ¹³C data indicate: 1) that nearly pure C₃-plant ecosystems existed in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), and therefore ecosystems there were dominated by woody dicot, herbaceous dicot, or cool-season grass vegetation (or a combination of these), and 2) that the CLP was characterized by a pattern of northward-increasing C₄ vegetation and aridity. Utilizing a broadened conceptual model for interpreting δ¹³C data, and citing independent faunal, floral, and lithostratgraphic data, we suggest that these patterns reflect northward expansion of forest and steppe ecosystems and relatively humid monsoon climates during the late Miocene and early Pliocene. An important implication of this interpretation is that the forcing mechanism illuminated by the temporal correlation during the Pleistocene between warm high latitudes and strong East Asian summer monsoons is a robust feature of the Eurasian tectonic–climatic system that predates the Plio-Pleistocene climatic reorganization.     

The 3640–3510 BC rhyodacite eruption of Chachimbiro compound volcano,Ecuador: a violent directed blast produced by a satellite dome

Based on geochronological, petrological, stratigraphical, and sedimentological data, this paper describes the deposits left by the most powerful Holocene eruption of Chachimbiro compound volcano, in the northern part of Ecuador. The eruption, dated between 3640 and 3510 years BC, extruded a ～650-m-wide and ～225-m-high rhyodacite dome, located 6.3 km east of the central vent, that exploded and produced a large pyroclastic density current (PDC) directed to the southeast followed by a sub-Plinian eruptive column drifted by the wind to the west. The PDC deposit comprises two main layers. The lower layer (L1) is massive, typically coarse-grained and fines-depleted, with abundant dense juvenile fragments from the outgassed dome crust. The upper layer (L2) consists of stratified coarse ash and lapilli laminae, with juvenile clasts showing a wide density range (0.7–2.6 g cm^?3). The thickness of the whole deposit ranges from few decimeters on the hills to several meters in the valleys. Deposits extending across six valleys perpendicular to the flow direction allowed us to determine a minimum velocity of 120 m s^?1. These characteristics show striking similarities with deposits of high-energy turbulent stratified currents and in particular directed blasts. The explosion destroyed most of the dome built during the eruption. Subsequently, the sub-Plinian phase left a decimeter-thick accidental-fragment-rich pumice layer in the Chachimbiro highlands. Juvenile clasts, rhyodacitic in composition (SiO₂?=?68.3 wt%), represent the most differentiated magma of Chachimbiro volcano. Magma processes occurred at two different depths (～14.4 and 8.0 km). The hot (～936 °C) deep reservoir fed the central vent while the shallow reservoir (～858 °C) had an independent evolution, probably controlled by El Angel regional fault system. Such destructive eruptions, related to peripheral domes, are of critical importance for hazard assessment in large silicic volcanic complexes such as those forming the Frontal Volcanic Arc of Ecuador and Colombia.     

Spatio-Temporal Surface Shear-Stress Variability in Live Plant Canopies and Cube Arrays

This study presents spatiotemporally-resolved measurements of surface shear-stress τ _s in live plant canopies and rigid wooden cube arrays to identify the sheltering capability against sediment erosion of these different roughness elements. Live plants have highly irregular structures that can be extremely flexible and porous resulting in considerable changes to the drag and flow regimes relative to rigid imitations mainly used in other wind-tunnel studies. Mean velocity and kinematic Reynolds stress profiles show that well-developed natural boundary layers were generated above the 8 m long wind-tunnel test section covered with the roughness elements at four different roughness densities (λ = 0, 0.017, 0.08, 0.18). Speed-up around the cubes caused higher peak surface shear stress than in experiments with plants at all roughness densities, demonstrating the more effective sheltering ability of the plants. The sheltered areas in the lee of the plants are significantly narrower with higher surface shear stress than those found in the lee of the cubes, and are dependent on the wind speed due to the plants ability to streamline with the flow. This streamlining behaviour results in a decreasing sheltering effect at increasing wind speeds and in lower net turbulence production than in experiments with cubes. Turbulence intensity distributions suggest a suppression of horseshoe vortices in the plant case. Comparison of the surface shear-stress measurements with sediment erosion patterns shows that the fraction of time a threshold skin friction velocity is exceeded can be used to assess erosion of, and deposition on, that surface.     

Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10–20-day and 30–50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30–50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30–50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10–20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10–20-day ISOs, the air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not present in the observed BoB 10–20-day ISOs. Further analysis indicates that the intraseasonal variability of the ISMR is generally underrepresented in the simulations. Skill of the MME in seasonal ISMR forecasting is strongly dependent on individual model performance. Therefore, in order to improve the model skill with respect to seasonal ISMR forecasting, we suggest it is necessary to better represent the robust dynamical links between the ISOs and the relevant circulation variations, as well as the proportion of intraseasonal variability in the individual models.