GPS揭示的现今地壳运动与地震前兆特征

利用“中国地壳运动观测网络”产出的GPS观测资料,采用球坐标系下非连续变形算法对资源进行计算,以此为基础,对我国大陆地块及其边界带运动与形变进行了分析。对GPS基准站的连续观测序列采用小波变换进行分解变换,分析了部分震例,探讨了从GPS连续观测序列提取地震前兆的方法。初步取得两点认识：（1）7级以上的大地震主要发生在走滑运动量大的活动边界,且与高应变率地块有关,这可以作为地震中长期预测判据;（2）GPS基准站连续观测序列中的低频段,地震前6个月或稍长时段有一定的前兆异常出现,这可以作为地震中短期预测判据。     

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Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake,China

The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China. Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall(M-K) test, and also investigated the related affecting factors, both from climate and human activities. The results revealed that the highest flood stages, duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49, 1.60 and 1.50, respectively. And, a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades. The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990 s. In addition, the intensive human activities, including land reclamation and levee construction, also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods. While, the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods, but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.     

单点高频地波雷达资料估算潮能耗散的方法

使用嵊泗站所布设的地波雷达观测获取的径向流数据,以及嵊泗、芦潮港、岱山3个潮汐观测站水位资料,采用两点近似投影方法反演流场全矢量流速,并用T-Tide程序计算调和常数,分别计算O1、K1、M2、S2各分潮流速场及迟角场,并计算各点上的潮能通量及潮能耗散,得到嵊泗岛以西杭州湾口区域潮能耗散同地形存在良好对应关系,充分证明了采用地波雷达观测数据进行潮能耗散计算这一方法的可行性,供相关工作者作进一步研究和讨论.     

Magnetic susceptibility variations of the Edicaran cap carbonates in the Yangtze platform and their implications for paleoclimate

1 INTRODUCTION One of the most intriguing phenomena in the late Neoproterozoic (~750 to 543 Ma) is the globa occurrence of thin carbonates that directly overlie glacial deposits in almost every continent (Kennedy 1996; Hoffman et al., 1998; Hoffman and Schrag 2002; Brasier and Shields, 2000; James et al., 2001 Jiang et al., 2003; Nogueira et al., 2003). These “cap carbonates”, commonly several to tens of meters thick, have attracted enormous interests because o their unusually negati…     

A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.     

Discovery of A-type Granite Zone and Its Geodynamic Significance in the Western Kunlun Mts., China

l. IntroductionGranite distributes widely in western KunlunMts. Many researches have been conducted byscientists (Wang Yuzhen et.al., l987; Zhang Yuquanet.al., l989, Fang Xilian et.al., I990, Jiang Chunfaet.al., 1992; Pan Yusheng, l992, Xu Ronghua et.al.,l 994; Jing Daogui et.al., l996, Zhang Yuquan et.al.,l998). But all of the researches have been donealong Sino-Pakistan road and Xinjiang-Tibet roadt"ith fOcus on isotopic dating of the intrusion andconducted a few on origin and tect…     

Composition and Origin of Ferromanganese Crusts from Equatorial Western Pacific Seamounts

In the equatorial western Pacific, iron-manganese oxyhydroxide crusts(Fe-Mn crusts) and nodules form on basaltic seamounts and on the top of drowned carbonate platform guyots that have been swept free of pelagic sediments. To date, the Fe-Mn crusts have been considered to be almost exclusively of abiotic origin. However, it has recently been suggested that these crusts may be a result of biomineralization. Although the Fe-Mn crust textures in the equatorial western Pacific are similar to those constructed by bacteria and algae, and biomarkers also document the existence of bacteria and algae dispersed within the Fe-Mn crusts, the precipitation, accumulation and distribution of elements, such as Fe, Mn, Ni and Co in Fe-Mn crusts are not controlled by microbial activity. Bacteria and algae are only physically incorporated into the crusts when dead plankton settle on the ocean floor and are trapped on the crust surface. Geochemical evidence suggests a hydrogenous origin of Fe-Mn crusts in the equatorial western Pacific, thus verifying a process for Fe-Mn crusts that involves the precipitation of colloidal phases from seawater followed by extensive scavenging of dissolved trace metals into the mineral phase during crust formation.     

Study of Pyrolysis Kinetics of Asphaltenes in Silurian Oilsands in the Tarim Basin

It is a special petroleum geological phenomenon that Silurian oilsands are extensively distributed in the central and northeast Tarim basin. Some geochemical studies of the oilsands have been carried out, but there is still great controversy over the hydrocarbon-regenerating potential of oilsands and the possibility of Silurian oilsands as hydrocarbon source rocks. In this study, the kinetics of asphaltenes pyrolysis was directly used to simulate the potential of Silurian oilsands for regenerating hydrocarbons. According to the experimental results, combined with other related organic geochemical analysis, it is considered that Silurian oilsands in the Tarim basin have a high hydrocarbon-regenerating potential and are latent hydrocarbon source rocks.     

AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT——PART I:LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS“OFF-LINE”TESTS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSES

Based on the existing land-surface schemes and models,an improved Land-surface ProcessModel(LPM-ZD)has been developed.It has the following major characteristics:(1)Thecombination of physical equations and empirical analytical formulae are used to construct thegoverning equations of soil temperature and moisture.Higher resolution of model level andphysical equations are adopted for the upper soil layers,and for the lower soil layers,lowerresolution of model level is adopted and empirical analytical formulae are used.(2)In land surfacehydrological process,the sub-grid distribution of rainfall and its effects are taken into account.(3)A simple snow cover submodel has been used,which includes effects of snow cover on soilthermodynamics and hydrology,as well as albedo.By use of this model and three groups of point observation data,a series of“off-line”testshave been carried out.The simulation results indicate that land-surface process model has goodperformance and can well simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of land surface processes for manykinds of land surface covers(forest,grass,crops and desert)in different climate zone.The resultssimulated by the model are consistent with the observations.Later,by use of one group ofobservation data and the model,a series of sensitivity experiments have been done.It is shownthat the model is much sensitive to some parameters,such as initial soil moisture,vegetationphysical parameters as well as the proportion of the grid covered with rain.Therefore it is muchimportant for land-surface process model to define these parameters as accurately as possible.