Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania

Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change.     

Efficacy of Hollow‐Fiber Ultrafiltration for Microbial Sampling in Groundwater

The goal of this study was to test hollow‐fiber ultrafiltration as a method for concentrating in situ bacteria and viruses in groundwater samples. Water samples from nine wells tapping a shallow sandy aquifer in a densely populated village in Bangladesh were reduced in volume approximately 400‐fold using ultrafiltration. Culture‐based assays for total coliforms and Escherichia coli, as well as molecular‐based assays for E. coli, Bacteroides, and adenovirus, were used as microbial markers before and after ultrafiltration to evaluate performance. Ultrafiltration increased the concentration of the microbial markers in 99% of cases. However, concentration factors (CF = post‐filtration concentration/pre‐filtration concentration) for each marker calculated from geometric means ranged from 52 to 1018 compared to the expected value of 400. The efficiency was difficult to quantify because concentrations of some of the markers, especially E. coli and total coliforms, in the well water (WW) collected before ultrafiltration varied by several orders of magnitude during the period of sampling. The potential influence of colloidal iron oxide precipitates in the groundwater was tested by adding EDTA to the pre‐filtration water in half of the samples to prevent the formation of precipitates. The use of EDTA had no significant effect on the measurement of culturable or molecular markers across the 0.5 to 10 mg/L range of dissolved Fe²⁺ concentrations observed in the groundwater, indicating that colloidal iron did not hinder or enhance recovery or detection of the microbial markers. Ultrafiltration appears to be effective for concentrating microorganisms in environmental water samples, but additional research is needed to quantify losses during filtration.     

Recharge and contamination sources of shallow and deep groundwater of pleistocene aquifer in El-Sadat industrial city: isotope and hydrochemical approaches

Hydrochemical and isotopic researches were conducted in El-Sadat City groundwater system to identify groundwater alteration, recharge, residence time and extent of pollution. The groundwater salinity gradually increases as the groundwater moves from northeastern to southwestern parts of the city. Groundwater generally shows mineralization decreasing with depth, indicating that the possibility of recent water penetration far below the surface is limited. Shallow groundwater has an elevated level of nitrate, which is attributed to anthropogenic sources due to intensive agricultural activity. The limit of high nitrate water may mark the maximum penetration of groundwater from the surface, which is found in depths <100 m. The northeastern and southwestern industrial areas are highly contaminated by some heavy metals, which may originate from some local industrial effluents. The sewage oxidation ponds seem to show no effect on groundwater; hence, these ponds are not a point source for these heavy metals. Dissolved ions depict five different hydrochemical facies, and stable isotopes define the recharge mechanisms, the origin of groundwater and the hydraulic confinement of deep groundwater. The deep groundwater is untritiated and has long residence times (in the order of thousands of years). Three different hydrochemical groups have been recognized and mapped in El-Sadat City, based on the chemical and isotopic information of the groundwater. These groups have different levels of contamination. The deep groundwater samples are significantly less impacted by surface activities and it appears that these important water resources have very low recharge rates and would, therefore, be severely impacted by overabstraction. The extensive exploitation of groundwater for drinking water supply would shortly be reflected by a gradual decline of the groundwater table in El-Sadat City. Amelioration of groundwater quality requires further management strategies and efforts in the forthcoming years.     

Weathering fluxes of arsenic from a small catchment in Slovak Republic

Inputs of As to a small catchment due to chemical weathering of bedrock, mechanical weathering of bedrock, and atmospheric precipitation were 71.53, 23.98 and 0.02 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The output fluxes of As due to mechanical erosion of soil, biological uptake, stream discharge, and groundwater flow were 6.32, 4.77, 0.37 and 0.02 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, respectively. The results indicate that arsenic accumulates in soil and regolith with a very high rate. This is attributed to the selective weathering and erosion with respect to arsenic and fixation of arsenic in the secondary solids produced by weathering. The output fluxes of As in stream and groundwater in Vydrica catchment in Slovak Republic (0.39 g ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) based on muscovite–biotite granites and granodiorites were much lower compared to catchments in a gold district in the Czech Republic. These results may be ascribed to the low levels of arsenic pollution measured in Vydrica catchment. The arsenic fluxes were estimated by calculation of mechanical and chemical weathering rates of the bedrocks in Vydrica catchment from mass balance data on sodium and silica. The justification of the steady state of Na and Si is that neither of the elements is appreciably accumulated in plants and in exchangeable pool of ions in soil.     

Meandering and bank erosion of the River Nile and its environmental impact on the area between Sohag and El-Minia, Egypt

The present work deals with meandering and bank erosion of the River Nile of Egypt and its environmental impact between Sohag and El-Minia, Egypt. The study depends on using Landsat imagery acquired on 1987–2000 and field observations. Field observations, remote sensing, and GIS analysis and sinuosity index were used in this study to investigate river meandering and the associated processes of erosion of river bank and islands, deposition of sediments and formation of new islands. The analysis of Landsat imagery revealed the migration of river course with time and space. Some islands disappear completely in the study area whereas new islands appear in other places. The lateral erosion on the river banks led to a decrease in agricultural lands bordering the river banks and decrease in the areas of the river islands which in turn reduces the agricultural production. Depositional processes create new floodplains on the convex sides of the river course and new islands and sand bars. Protection methods are recommended to protect the river bank from further movement and erosion. The present conditions of river meandering and the associated processes of erosion and deposition accelerated with human activities have its impact on the environment. The most prominent hazard problem is reduction of agricultural lands and loss of property as well as navigation problems. River control is recommended to weaken the secondary currents created by the river bends. It is recommended to regularly monitor the river banks and islands and measure the rates of erosion and deposition. Sand bars and subsurface islands should be monitored and identified with flash lights to mitigate navigation problems.     

A laboratory study of the initial structure and the overconsolidation effects on the undrained monotonic behavior of sandy soil from Chlef region in northern Algeria

The effects of initial state of the samples and the overconsolidation ratio (OCR) on the behavior of Chlef sand were studied in this article. For this purpose, the results of two series of undrained monotonic triaxial compression tests on medium dense sand are presented. In the first test series, the influence of the specimen's fabric and confining pressure has been studied. The tests were conducted at initial confining pressure of 50, 100, and 200 kPa. Two methods of sample preparation, which included the dry funnel pluviation and the wet deposition, were utilized. All the samples were subjected to a monotonic loading after consolidation phase. The results of the tests demonstrate that an increase in initial confining pressure leads to an increase in the resistance to liquefaction. The results also show that the samples prepared with the dry funnel pluviation method exhibit a greater resistance to liquefaction than those prepared with the wet deposition method. In the second series of tests, the overconsolidation influence on the resistance to the sand liquefaction has been realized on samples at an effective stress of 100 kPa for OCR varying between 1 and 8. The tests show that the increase of OCR improves the stiffness of sand and accelerates the appearance of dilatancy.     

Contribution of gravity and magnetic data in delineating the subsurface structure of Hammam Faroun area, Gulf of Suez, Egypt

The Hammam Faroun has a particular importance due to its geothermal activity which constitutes the main geothermal resource of Egypt. The area is located on the Sinai Peninsula, a subplate bounded by two seismically active structural zones along the Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba. High-resolution ground-based gravity and magnetic data are available for the entire Hammam Faroun area, acquired as part of a national project to explore for mineral, geothermal, and hydrocarbon resources. Gravity and magnetic data were analyzed using Source Edge Detection and Source Parameter Imaging (SPI) techniques to image subsurface structures. These analyses show that the area is characterized by a set of northwest-striking faults lying parallel to the Gulf of Suez. Orthogonal patterns are also present, possibly related to rifting of the Gulf of Suez. Depth analysis using the SPI method indicates that surface faults extend to 5-km depth. Analysis of potential-field data elucidates the structurally complex subsurface structure of the Hammam Faroun area.     

Real surface conductivity component as indicator for the hydraulic conductivity

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity from surface resistivity measurements is one of the most difficult and challenging hydrogeophysical targets. The promising side of this relation is the analogy between electric current flow and water flow, whereas the grand ambiguity is the non-dimensionality between both two quantities. Imaginary surface conductivity component is used recently to deduce the hydraulic conductivity via complex resistivity measurements. Since there are similar properties between imaginary (out-of-phase) and real (in-phase) surface conductivity components, the latter is used in this paper to predict the hydraulic conductivity. Two mathematical parameters were determined to express the electrical equivalent of hydraulic conductivity in sand and clay systems based on the mode of electrical double-layer formation in both systems. The reliability of the proposed method is tested through applying on two datasets representing sand and clay systems. The first dataset is a clean sand and gravel aquifer in the Keritis basin in Chania, Crete, Greece. The second is mostly clayey sand aquifer in Wadi El-Assuity, Egypt. Application of the present approach in these two cases resulted in promising nearly identical values with the measured hydraulic conductivity via pumping test or geometric hydraulic conductivity via grain size analysis.     

Statistical Analyses of La, Ce, Nd, Y, Nb, Ti, P, and Zr in Bedrocks and Their Significance in Geochemical Exploration at the Um Garayat Gold Mine Area, Eastern Desert, Egypt

A prospective lithochemical survey (scale 1:50,000) was carried out at the Um Garayat gold mine area within the central wadi Allaqi shear zone. The metavolcanic samples were analyzed for Ti, P, Zr, Nb, Y, La, Nd, and Ce. The background and threshold values were determined using histograms, box-plots, and Q-mode cluster analysis. Discriminant analysis classifies the samples into four groups: Group 1 (Au mineralization) characterizes Phase III of the hydrothermal stage; Group 2 (Cu?CAu mineralization) characterizes Phases I and II; Groups 3 and 4 comprise the least altered samples. Cubic trend surface and residual maps display groups of elements: (P, Ti, Zr), (Nb, Y), and (La, Nd, Ce) each group has similar areal distribution pattern. R-mode factor analysis, using the cubic residuals, produces a model with three factors. Factors 1 (P, Ti, Zr) and 2 (Nb, Y) are referred to the magmatic minerals of the least altered volcanic rocks. In addition, Factor 1 associates with the Au-rich site at the shafts area, whereas Factor 2 is referred to albitization western to the shafts area with high contents of Nb and Y. In Factors 1 and 2, major P and Ti with traces Nb and Y are attributed to the accessories rutile, sphene, anatase, and calcite that were developed during propylitization as well as apatite and calcite-accompanying Phase I of the hydrothermal stage. Phosphorous could be considered as an indicator element for the Au mineralization at the study area. The principal elements of Factor 3 (La, Nd, Ce) associate with the Cu?CAu-rich site at the southern adits area, and attributed to the secondary Ca-bearing accessories calcite, sphene, and apatite. In general, these elements associate with the regional propylitization and the three phases of hydrothermal stage in zones of alkali metasomatism. In these alteration zones, La, Nd, and Ce could be used as indicators during geochemical exploration at the study area. In general, the secondary accessory minerals calcite, apatite, rutile, sphene, and anatase associating with zones of alkali metasomatism are significant carriers for the investigated elements. These accessories are possible indicators during geochemical exploration in the adjacent similar mineralizations of the central Allaqi shear zone area.