Environmental impact assessment using FORM and groundwater system reliability concept: case study Jining, China

In this paper, fist-order reliability method (FORM) is used to evaluate the impacts of uncertainties posed by traditional deterministic models on the environment in Jining, China. Because of groundwater contamination in shallow aquifer, and an increase in water demand, the new wells target the confined aquifer with constant pumping rate of 5,000 m³/d. Using Theis equation, the groundwater drawdown is analyzed to determine whether the confined aquifer will be contaminated. Although the piezometric level is higher than the phreatic level by 11.0 m, the risk of drawdown is still 19.49% when the pumping rate of 5,000 m³/d is maintained for 2 years. The deterministic model indicates a drawdown of 8.94 m which is lower than the maximum tolerance drawdown of 11.0 m. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveal that the model result is more sensitive to transmissivity than specific yield, while the reliability analysis offers significant information for the decision makers. This approach exposes and minimizes the risk of undesirable consequences such as groundwater contamination.     

A preliminary study of the relationship between large earthquakes and precipitation for the region of Athens,Greece

The annual rainfall data of Athens rain gauge stations, for the last 119 years, is compared with the occurrence of large (M 6) earthquakes along the fault and thrust systems in the vicinity of Athens and interesting correlations have been observed.This preliminary investigation reveals the possible occurrence of a large earthquake in the region of Athens till 1993.     

‘Thermohaline front’ off the east coast of India and its generating mechanism

Physical oceanography measurements reveal a strong salinity (0.18 psu km^?1) and temperature (0.07 °C km^?1) front off the east coast of India in December 1997. T–S diagrams suggest lateral mixing between the fresh water at the coast and the ambient warmer, saltier water. This front seems to be the result of southward advection of fresh and cool water, formed in the northern Bay of Bengal during the monsoon, by the East Indian Coastal Current, as suggested by the large-scale salinity structure in the SODA re-analysis and the anti-cyclonic gyre in the northwestern Bay of Bengal during winter. The data further reveals an offshore front in January, which appears to be the result of a meso-scale re-circulation around an eddy, bringing cold and freshwater from the northern Bay of Bengal further away from the shore. Our cruise data hence illustrates that very strong salinity fronts can appear in the Bay of Bengal after the monsoon, as a result of intense coastal circulation and stirring by eddies.     

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow for Palgong Mountain forested watershed in southeastern South Korea

Tree-ring chronologies from pine, oak and black locust tree species were used to reconstruct annual streamflow and examine hydrological drought years for Palgong Mountain forested watershed in southeastern South Korea for the period from 1954-2015. The backward elimination multiple regression analysis provided the statistically significant predictor chronologies of streamflow. The final calibration and verification test models accounted for 84.8% and 81.6%, respectively, of the variability in streamflow observed in the gage data. Further verification of the validity of the reconstructed model was undertaken with the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, the Reduction of Error Test, and the Durbin-Watson Statistics and indicated fidelity of the model for reconstructing the annual streamflow. Analyses of the reconstructed annual streamflow indicate that the most persistent years of high flows above the median annual discharge occurred from 1986-2008. This period included 7 single or multiple years of highest flow above the 90th percentile discharge and multiple years of high flows with a time interval of 2-6 years, although with intervening multiple years of low flows below the 10th and 50th percentile. In comparison, the most persistent years of low flows below the median annual discharge occurred from 1954-1985 and 2009-2015. This period included 8 single or multiple years of lowest flow below the 10th percentile discharge and multiple years of low flows with a time interval of 2-9 years, although also with intervening multiple years of high flows above the 50th percentile. No single years of extreme hydrological droughts below the 10th percentile were identified from 1986-2015 whereas a greater proportion of high flows above the 90th percentile occurred during this period. The persistent single or multiple years of lowest flows between 1954 and 1985 were the recent most critical hydrological drought years identified in the Palgong Mountain forested watershed providing supportive evidence of the severity of past hydrological droughts during that period, applicable to the southeastern South Korea where the study watershed is located. This interpretation agrees with the hydrological drought event years identified from 1951 to the early 1980s in a related national study that used precipitation proxy data to reconstruct past occurrences of droughts in Korea.     

Influence of vegetation cover and other sources of variability on sediment and runoff response in a burned forest in South Korea

Post-fire field measurements of sediment and run off yield were undertaken in natural rainfall event-basis during five rainy months in Korea on a total of 15 small plots: four replica burned unseeded plots, six replica burned seeded plots, and five replica unburned plots. The main aim was to evaluate the effects of vegetation recovery and spatial distribution patterns on sediment and runoff response between and within the treatment replica erosion plots. Six-years after the wildfire, total sediment and runoff yield in the burned unseeded plots with 20%-30% vegetation cover was still 120.8 and 20.6 times higher than in the unburned treatment plots with 100% ground cover, 8.3 and 6.7 times higher than in the burned seeded plots with 70%-80% vegetation cover, while only 1.6 and 2.0 times higher than in the burned seeded plots with 50%-60% vegetation cover, respectively. The differences in sediment and runoff yield between the treatment plots was proportional to total vegetation cover, distance of bare soil to vegetation cover, magnitude of rainfall characteristics and changes in soil properties, but not slope gradient. Three out of the six within-treatment pairs of two replica plots showed large differences in sediment and runoff yield of up to 6.0 and 4.2 times and mean CV of up to 99.1% and 62.2%, respectively. This was due to differences in the spatial distribution patterns of surface cover features, including aggregation of vegetation and litter covers, the distance of bare soil exposed to vegetation cover closer to the plot sediment collector and micro topographic mounds and sinks between pairs of replica plots. Small differences in sediment and runoff of only 0.9-1.4 folds and mean CV of 8.6%-25% were observed where the within-treatment pairs of replica plots had similar slope, total surface cover components and comparable spatial distribution pattern of vegetation and bare soil exposed surface covers. The results indicated that post-fire hillslopes undergoing effective vegetation recovery have the potential to reduce sediment and runoff production nearer to unburned levels within 6-years after burning while wildfire impacts could last more than 6-years on burned unseeded ridge slopes undergoing slow vegetation recovery.     

Neotectonic effects on sinuosity and channel migration,Belle Fourche River,Western South Dakota

Short-term instability in the behaviour of a small, meandering alluvial channel is identified from the relation between sinuosity and either floodplain slope or channel slope within 17 reaches along an 81-kilometre section of the Belle Fourche River in western South Dakota. In reaches 1 to 4 and 11 to 17 the channel is relatively stable and sinuosity varies inversely with channel slope. In reaches 5 to 10, sinuosity is positively related to floodplain slope. Sinuosity increases markedly in reaches 5, 6, and 7 (which are immediately downstream from a discontinuity in the long profile of the floodplain) in association with an increase in floodplain slope. Immediately upstream from the discontinuity, bankfull channel depth and sinuosity decrease and the area of the floodplain reworked by meander migration between 1939 and 1981 increases, in association with a decrease in floodplain slope. Channel behaviour in reaches 5 to 10 is best explained as a consequence of neotectonic activity, as indicated by changes in elevation recorded along geodetic survey lines that cross lineaments that may delimit the eastern boundary of the Black Hills uplift. Sinuosity acts as a barometer of the effects of neotectonic activity on alluvial channels. Initial indications of channel and floodplain instability due to neotectonic activity may be derived from evidence of anomalously active channel migration, as documented from photographic or topographic sources.     

The limitations of three-dimensional kinematic vorticity analysis

The kinematic vorticity number (W_k) can be calculated for three-dimensional as well as two-dimensional geologic deformations. For steady-state deformations, W_k can be correlated to and analyzed in terms of finite strains. The analysis shows that assumptions commonly made for two-dimensional deformations are not applicable to three-dimensional deformations. A single W_k describes an infinite number of three-dimensional deformations. Further, even knowledge of flow apophyses orientation, instantaneous stretching axes orientation, and/or W_k are not sufficient to describe deformation. Three-dimensional deformations also require knowledge of the deformation ‘type’ or boundary conditions of deformation (e.g. transpression). Hence, in addition to being difficult to estimate, the value of knowing W_k for three-dimensional deformations is greatly reduced compared with plane strain. The most useful methods of determining W_k from naturally deformed rocks are presented.     

On the observed synoptic variability in the thermal structure of the upper northern Bay of Bengal during MONEX-79

The short-term variability observed in the near surface meteorological parameters and in the vertical thermal structure of the upper layers of the northern Bay of Bengal during a weak monsoonal regime is examined with the aid of time series measurements. The variability of the mixed layer depth is interpreted in terms of forced mixing caused by the surface wind stress and free mixing by buoyancy flux, Ekman pumping controlled by the curl of the surface wind stress, convergence associated with a clockwise gyral circulation and stratification caused by freshwater discharges from rivers. The daily-averaged current vectors in the upper layers indicate the presence of clockwise gyral circulation in the polygon area.