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排序方式: 共有149条查询结果,搜索用时 32 毫秒
31.
Theodore G. Shepherd Emily Boyd Raphael A. Calel Sandra C. Chapman Suraje Dessai Ioana M. Dima-West Hayley J. Fowler Rachel James Douglas Maraun Olivia Martius Catherine A. Senior Adam H. Sobel David A. Stainforth Simon F. B. Tett Kevin E. Trenberth Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk Nicholas W. Watkins Dimitri A. Zenghelis 《Climatic change》2018,147(3-4):555-569
Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPIJJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPISON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available. 相似文献
32.
Christiana Photiadou Bart van den Hurk Aarnout van Delden Albrecht Weerts 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):187-203
An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to flooding events in the basin. Large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) are obtained through Maximum Covariance Analysis using reanalysis sea level pressure and high-resolution precipitation observations. A bias correction using these CPs is applied to winter and summer separately, acknowledging the seasonal variability of the circulation regimes in North Europe and their correlation with regional precipitation rates over the Rhine basin. Two different climate model ensemble outputs are explored: ESSENCE and CMIP5. The results of the CP-method are then compared to observations and uncorrected model outputs. Results from a simple bias correction based on a delta factor (NoCP-method) are also used for comparison. For both summer and winter, the CP-method offers a statistically significant improvement of precipitation statistics for subsets of data dominated by particular circulation regimes, demonstrating the circulation-dependence of the precipitation bias. Uncorrected, CP and NoCP corrected model outputs were used as forcing to a hydrological model to simulate river discharges. The CP-method leads to a larger improvement in simulated discharge in the Alpine area in winter than in summer due to a stronger dependence of Rhine precipitation on atmospheric circulation in winter. However, the NoCP-method, in comparison to the CP-method, improves the discharge estimations over the entire Rhine basin. 相似文献
33.
Bartłomiej Glina Małgorzata Malkiewicz Łukasz Mendyk Adam Bogacz Przemysław Woźniczka 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2017,46(2):294-307
The aim of this study is to assess the impact of biotic and abiotic factors on peatland formation in the Central Sudetes (central Europe) during the late Holocene. The research methodology adopted allowed us to determine whether vegetation development and shallow peatland formation were affected by human activity. Knowledge of past changes might be useful in evaluating recent and future changes, and to avoid pitfalls in the present management of peatland ecosystems. A palaeoecological research study of four peatlands was conducted in the Sto?owe Mountains (Central Sudetes, SW Poland). The results showed that these shallow peatlands originated in the middle to late Holocene (from 3301 BC to AD 1137). Palaeoecological records reflect continuous human impact on vegetation development and peat accumulation from the Middle Ages to the present (late Holocene). The strongest agrarian settler activity is observed in the High Middle Ages (AD 1200–1500). The human‐induced or wildfires observed in the late Holocene were an integral component of peatland ecosystems in the Central Sudetes. Moreover, palaeoecological analysis (sphagnum spores decline) and radiocarbon dating (AD 1870) confirmed drainage of the study area in the 19th century, which greatly affected the vegetation communities. 相似文献
34.
35.
Rutger de Wit Lucas J. Stal Bente Aa. Lomstein Rodney A. Herbert Hans van Gemerden Pierluigi Viaroli Victor-Ugo Cecherelli Francisco Rodríguez-Valera Marco Bartoli Gianmarco Giordani Roberta Azzoni Bart Schaub David T. Welsh Andrew Donnelly Ana Cifuentes Josefa Antn Kai Finster Lise B. Nielsen Anne-Grethe Underlien Pedersen Anne Turi Neubauer Marina A. Colangelo Sander K. Heijs 《Continental Shelf Research》2001,21(18-19)
“Buffer capacities” has been defined in ecology as a holistic concept (e.g., Integration of Ecosystem Theories: A Pattern, second ed. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1997, 388pp), but we show that it can also be worked out in mechanistic studies. Our mechanistic approach highlights that “buffering capacities” can be depleted progressively, and, therefore, we make a distinction between current and potential “buffering capacities”. We have applied this concept to understand the limited “local stability” in seagrass ecosystems and their vulnerability towards structural changes into macro-algal dominated communities. We explored the following processes and studied how they confer buffering capacities to the seagrass ecosystem: (i) net autotrophy is persistent in Zostera noltii meadows where plant assimilation acts as a sink for nutrients, this contrasted with the Ulva system that shifted back and forth between net autotrophy and net heterotrophy; (ii) the Z. noltii ecosystem possesses a certain albeit rather limited capacity to modify the balance between nitrogen fixation and denitrification, i.e., it was found that in situ nitrogen fixation always exceeded denitrification; (iii) the nitrogen demand of organoheterotrophic bacteria in the sediment results in nitrogen retention of N in the sediment and hence a buffer against release of nitrogen compounds from sediments, (iv) habitat diversification in seagrass meadows provides shelter for meiofauna and hence buffering against adverse conditions, (v) sedimentary iron provides a buffer against noxious sulfide (note: bacterial sulfide production is enhanced in anoxic sediment niches by increased organic matter loading). On the other hand, in the coastal system we studied, sedimentary iron appears less important as a redox-coupled buffer system against phosphate loading. This is because most inorganic phosphate is bound to calcium rather than to iron. In addition, our studies have highlighted the importance of plant–microbe interactions in the seagrass meadows. 相似文献
36.
Jiří Zahradník Vlastislav Červený Vladimír Barták Reviewer V. Kárník 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1981,25(4):343-355
Summary Seismic microzoning of Prague was performed using geological data and seismic response (ground shaking) computations. The Prague territory was covered by a square grid, each square 250 m×250 m being characterized by a simplified geological cross-section from the Earth's surface to the bedrock boundary. The data were obtained from detailed engineering-geological maps 1:5000. The geological cross-sections were transformed into a set of layered models, specified by the thicknesses of individual layers and corresponding compressional and shear-wave velocities, densities and parameters of the causal absorption. The seismic responses were computed by the matrix method. The main amplitude and frequency characteristics of the responses are demonstrated in the form of microzoning maps. The maps do not depend on the specific type of seismic excitation. They make it possible to predict the relative amplification of P and S waves, with respect to the bedrock outcrop, all over the city. 相似文献
37.
Discharge areas of hydrothermal springs are known to be inhabited by diverse types of microorganisms including archaea, prokaryotes and eukaryotes. A total of 11 hydrothermal samples from the Rio Grande rift and the Valles caldera in New Mexico were analyzed to investigate the correlation between chemical and microbiological parameters of hydrothermal waters. The sampled fluids are categorized into three chemical groups: (I) steam-condensing acid sulfate waters, (II) deep geothermal and derivative waters and (III) thermal meteoric waters. Analyses of the microbial phospholipid fatty acids and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis of DNA show that acid sulfate waters were populated by thermoacidophilic organisms and had high biomass content. Mineralized deep geothermal and derivative waters exhibited a high degree of microbial diversity, but had low biomass content. Thermal meteoric waters are low in total dissolved solids, and exhibit very low biomass content and microbial diversity. DNA sequences from several previously unknown microbial species were detected. The results of this study support the hypothesis that microbes can be used as tracers for specific types of subsurface environments. 相似文献
38.
The source terms arising from radioactive/toxic metal waste repositories will contain a multitude of dissolved metal species, as do natural systems. The influence of sorption competition on the uptake of safety-relevant metals, and the effects this may have on transport rates to the biosphere, is an important repository performance assessment issue which has not, as yet, been resolved. The main aim of this work was to quantify the influence of competition between metals in different valence states on their individual sorption characteristics under conditions dominated by pH-dependent sorption. The sorption experiments were carried out on Na- and Ca-montmorillonites using various combinations and concentrations of Co(II), Ni(II), Zn(II), Eu(III), Nd(III), Am(III), Th(IV), and U(VI). For metals sorbing at trace concentrations in a background electrolyte containing a competing metal up to mmolar concentrations, and pH values generally greater than 6, all of the experimental results were consistent with the observation that metals with similar chemistries (valence state, hydrolysis behavior) compete with one another, but metals with dissimilar chemistries do not compete, i.e., competition is selective. For example Eu, Nd, and Am exhibit unambiguous sorption competition effects, as do Ni, Co, and Zn. On the basis of the above preliminary criteria, competition between divalent transition metals and trivalent lanthanides, Th(IV), and U(VI) and between Th (IV) and U(VI) would not be expected, and this is found experimentally. In general, neither single-fixed-site capacity models nor two-site (strong/weak) models with fixed capacities, whether with or without electrostatic terms, are capable of modeling the spectrum of experimental results presented here. To explain the competitive effects observed it is proposed that multiple sets of strong sites exist as subsets of the 40 mmol kg−1 of weak sites present in the montmorillonite conceptual model. It is shown that if the 2SPNE SC/CE sorption model is extended to include multiple strong sites, and the average site capacity and protolysis constant values defined in previous publications are assigned to each of the sets of strong sites, then the model can be used to reproduce all of the experimental data, provided it can be specified which groups of metals are competitive and which are not. 相似文献
39.
Ludovic Puig Göran Pilbratt Astrid Heske Isabel Escudero Pierre-Elie Crouzet Bram de Vogeleer Kate Symonds Ralf Kohley Pierre Drossart Paul Eccleston Paul Hartogh Jeremy Leconte Giusi Micela Marc Ollivier Giovanna Tinetti Diego Turrini Bart Vandenbussche Paulina Wolkenberg 《Experimental Astronomy》2018,46(1):211-239
ARIEL, the Atmospheric Remote sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large survey, is one of the three M-class mission candidates competing for the M4 launch slot within the Cosmic Vision science programme of the European Space Agency (ESA). As such, ARIEL has been the subject of a Phase A study that involved European industry, research institutes and universities from ESA member states. This study is now completed and the M4 down-selection is expected to be concluded in November 2017. ARIEL is a concept for a dedicated mission to measure the chemical composition and structure of hundreds of exoplanet atmospheres using the technique of transit spectroscopy. ARIEL targets extend from gas giants (Jupiter or Neptune-like) to super-Earths in the very hot to warm zones of F to M-type host stars, opening up the way to large-scale, comparative planetology that would place our own Solar System in the context of other planetary systems in the Milky Way. A technical and programmatic review of the ARIEL mission was performed between February and May 2017, with the objective of assessing the readiness of the mission to progress to the Phase B1 study. No critical issues were identified and the mission was deemed technically feasible within the M4 programmatic boundary conditions. In this paper we give an overview of the final mission concept for ARIEL as of the end of the Phase A study, from scientific, technical and operational perspectives. 相似文献
40.
Large wood clogging during floods in a gravel‐bed river: the Długopole bridge in the Czarny Dunajec River,Poland 下载免费PDF全文
Virginia Ruiz‐Villanueva Bartłomiej Wyżga Paweł Mikuś Maciej Hajdukiewicz Markus Stoffel 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(3):516-530
During floods, large quantities of wood can be mobilized and transported downstream. At critical sections, such as bridges, the transported wood might be entrapped and a quick succession of backwater effects can occur as a result of the reduction of the cross‐sectional area. The aim of this work is to explore large wood‐related hazards during floods in the gravel‐bed river Czarny Dunajec (Polish Carpathians), where the river flows through the village of D?ugopole. This work is based on the numerical modelling of large wood transport together with flow dynamics in which inlet and boundary conditions were designed based on field observations. The exploratory approach developed in this study uses multiple scenarios (193) to analyse the factors controlling bridge clogging: wood size, wood supply, flow conditions, morphology and obstacles in the riverbed. Results highlighted the strong control of log length (stronger than that of log diameter) on potential blockage probability; however, according to our results the main factor controlling bridge clogging was the flood discharge. River morphology and wood supply play an important role as well. The river morphology may reduce bridge blockage, as it influences flow velocity and depth, and creates natural retention zones for wood. In addition, the impacts of bridge blockage were analysed in terms of afflux depth and length, and flooded area. Results showed that bridge blockage may result in a significant increase in water depth (up to 0.7 m) and flooded area (up to 33% more), therefore increasing flood risk in the village. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献