Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5

For the construction of regional climate change scenarios spanning a relevant fraction of the spread in climate model projections, an inventory of major drivers of regional climate change is needed. For the Netherlands, a previous set of regional climate change scenarios was based on the decomposition of local temperature/precipitation changes into components directly linked to the level of global warming, and components related to changes in the regional atmospheric circulation. In this study this decomposition is revisited utilizing the extensive modelling results from the CMIP5 model ensemble in support for the 5th IPCC assessment. Rather than selecting a number of GCMs based on performance metrics or relevant response features, a regression technique was developed to utilize all available model projections. The large number of projections allows a quantification of the separate contributions of emission scenarios, systematic model responses and natural variability to the total likelihood range. Natural variability plays a minor role in modelled differences in the global mean temperature response, but contributes for up to 50 % to the range of mean sea level pressure responses and local precipitation. Using key indicators (“steering variables”) for the temperature and circulation response, the range in local seasonal mean temperature and precipitation responses can be fairly well reproduced.     

Initiation of cmes by magnetic flux emergence

The initiation of solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is studied in the framework of numerical magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The initial CME model includes a magnetic flux rope in spherical, axi-symmetric geometry. The initial configuration consists of a magnetic flux rope embedded in a gravitationally stratified solar atmosphere with a background dipole magnetic field. The flux rope is in equilibrium due to an image current below the photosphere. An emerging flux triggering mechanism is used to make this equilibrium system unstable. When the magnetic flux emerges within the filament below the flux rope, this results in a catastrophic behavior similar to previous models. As a result, the flux rope rises and a current sheet forms below it. It is shown that the magnetic reconnection in the current sheet below the flux rope in combination with the outward curvature forces results in a fast ejection of the flux rope as observed for solar CMEs. We have done a parametric study of the emerging flux rate.     

Tidal interactions and disruptions of giant planets on highly eccentric orbits

We calculate the evolution of planets undergoing a strong tidal encounter using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), for a range of periastron separations. We find that outside the Roche limit, the evolution of the planet is well-described by the standard model of linear, non-radial, adiabatic oscillations. If the planet passes within the Roche limit at periastron, however, mass can be stripped from it, but in no case do we find enough energy transferred to the planet to lead to complete disruption. In light of the three new extrasolar planets discovered with periods shorter than two days, we argue that the shortest-period cases observed in the period-mass relation may be explained by a model whereby planets undergo strong tidal encounters with stars, after either being scattered by dynamical interactions into highly eccentric orbits, or tidally captured from nearly parabolic orbits. Although this scenario does provide a natural explanation for the edge found for planets at twice the Roche limit, it does not explain how such planets will survive the inevitable expansion that results from energy injection during tidal circularization.     

A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.     

Flood disaster subcultures in The Netherlands: the parishes of Borgharen and Itteren

The Netherlands knows a persistent threat of flooding. To adapt to this dangerous reality, the Dutch have cultivated what disaster research literature has labeled ‘disaster subcultures’ or a set of cultural (tangible and intangible) tools to deal with the recurrent hazard. While there is abundant attention for the way the Dutch ‘coastal’ and ‘low-lying’ communities deal with the recurrent threat of (coastal) flooding, less is known about the way the Dutch ‘high-lands’ deal with the yearly threat of (fluvial) flooding. This article presents the findings of an explorative research endeavor (2011–2013) aimed at discerning if the disaster subculture concept has contemporary relevance in the Netherlands, particularly with respect to flooding, and if so, whether applying this lens would reveal more about the nature of existing disaster subcultures. Because less is known about the Dutch ‘high-lands,’ we chose to look into the existence and attributes of disaster subcultures in the parishes Borgharen and Itteren, which experience a systematic threat of flooding. Our findings suggest that the disaster subculture lens is valuable as it enables the empirical appreciation of disaster subcultures, even in a small country like the Netherlands, and it unveiled elements of these neighboring parishes’ flood reality that otherwise might have gone unnoticed and that seem central to understanding these two parishes’ levels of vulnerability and resilience. It is our contention that the concept ‘disaster subculture’ makes a greater understanding possible of the cultural context from which vulnerability and resilience to specific and recurrent threats emerge.     

Effect of channel deepening on tidal flow and sediment transport: part I—sandy channels

Natural tidal channels often need deepening for navigation purposes (to facilitate larger vessels). Deepening often leads to tidal amplification, salinity intrusion, and increasing sand and mud import. These effects can be modelled and studied by using detailed 3D models. Reliable simplified models for a first quick evaluation are however lacking. This paper presents a simplified model for sand transport in prismatic and converging tidal channels. The simplified model is a local model neglecting horizontal sand transport gradients. The latter can be included by coupling (as post-processing) the simplified model to a 2DH or 3D flow model. Basic sand transport processes in stratified tidal flow are studied based on the typical example of the tidal Rotterdam Waterway in The Netherlands. The objective is to gain quantitative understanding of the effects of channel deepening on tidal penetration, salinity intrusion, tidal asymmetry, residual density-driven flow, and the net tide-integrated sand transport. We firstly study the most relevant tidal parameters at the mouth and along the channel with simple linear tidal models and numerical 2DH and 3D tidal models. We then present a simplified model describing the transport of sand (TSAND) in tidal channels. The TSAND model can be used to compute the variation of the depth-integrated suspended sand transport and total sand transport (incl. bed-load transport) over the tidal cycle. The model can either be used in stand-alone mode or with computed near-bed velocities from a 3D hydrodynamic model as input data.     

Occurrence of anthropogenic and naturally-produced organohalogenated compounds in tissues of Black Sea harbour porpoises

Harbour porpoises are one of the three cetacean species inhabiting the Black Sea. This is the first study to report on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and naturally-produced compounds, methoxylated PBDEs (MeO-PBDEs) and polybrominated hexahydroxanthene derivatives (PBHDs), in tissues (kidney, brain, blubber, liver, muscle) of male harbour porpoises (11 adults, 9 juveniles) from the Black Sea. Lipid-normalized concentrations decreased from muscle > blubber > liver > kidney > brain for the sum of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and for the sum of PBDEs. Among the naturally-produced compounds, levels of PBHDs were higher than of MeO-PBDEs, with tri-BHD and 6-MeO-BDE 47 being the dominant compounds for both groups, respectively. Concentrations of naturally-produced compounds decreased from blubber to brain, similarly to the sum of DDT and metabolites (DDXs). Concentrations of DDXs were highest, followed by PCBs, HCB, PBHDs, PBDEs and MeO-PBDEs. Levels of PCBs and PBDEs in blubber were lower than concentrations reported for harbour porpoises from the North Sea, while concentrations of DDXs were higher.     

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams

We apply an integrated hydrology‐stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM‐RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt‐dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lower reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub‐basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.