The use of general circulation models in the analysis of the ecosystem impacts of climatic change

The use of general circulation models in the estimation of the impact of climatic change on the global ecosystem is seen to depend primarily on their ability to reliably depict the seasonal and geographical distribution of the changes in surface climate variables. While present GCMs generally simulate the observed distribution of surface air temperature reasonably well, they show significantly different changes in the equilibrium temperature as a result of doubled CO₂, for example. These disagreements are attributed to differences in the model's resolution and parameterization of subgrid-scale processes. Such model-dependent errors notwithstanding, much more information of possible use in impact analysis can be extracted from general circulation model simulations than has generally been done so far. The completeness, consistency and experimental possibilities offered by simulated data sets permit the systematic extraction of a wide variety of statistics important to the surface ecosystem, such as the length of the growing season, the duration of rainless periods, and the surface moisture stress.Assuming further model improvements, the elements of a model-assisted methodology for climate impact analysis are seen to be: (1) the determination of the seasonal and geographical distribution of that portion of simulated climatic changes which are both statistically and physically significant; (2) the transformation of the (significant) large-scale climatic changes onto the local scale of impact (the climate inversion problem); and (3) the design of specific statistical parameters or functions relevant to local ecosystem impacts.     

Chloride and Bromide Loss from Sea-Salt Particles in Southern Ocean Air

Datasets on aerosol composition in Southern Ocean air at Cape Grim and Macquarie Island, and rainwater composition at Cape Grim, have been analysed for sea-salt components in order to test the validity of the multiphase autocatalytic halogen activation process proposed initially by Sander and Crutzen (1996) and developed fully for clean marine air by Vogt et al. (1996). Four distinct datasets from the two locations were analysed. All four datasets provided consistent evidence in support of three predictions of the autocatalytic model: (1) overall Cl- deficits in sea-salt aerosol were small, difficult to quantify against analytical uncertainty and at most a few percent; (2) Br- deficits were large, averaging –30% to –50% on an annual basis, with strong seasonality ranging from about –10% in some winter samples to –80% or more in some summer samples; and (3) the Br- and Cl- deficits were clearly linked to the availability of strong, S-acidity in the aerosol, confirming the importance of acid catalysis to the dehalogenation process.     

Refinement of the late Quaternary geologic history of Erebus volcano,Antarctica using Ar/Ar and Cl age determinations

Six new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and three cosmogenic ³⁶Cl age determinations provide new insight into the late Quaternary eruptive history of Erebus volcano. Anorthoclase from 3 lava flows on the caldera rim have ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 23 ± 12, 81 ± 3 and 172 ± 10 ka (all uncertainties 2σ). The ages confirm the presence of a second, younger, superimposed caldera near the southwestern margin of the summit plateau and show that eruptive activity has occurred in the summit region for 77 ± 13 ka longer than previously thought. Trachyte from “Ice Station” on the eastern flank is 159 ± 2 ka, similar in age to those at Bomb Peak and Aurora Cliffs. The widespread occurrences of trachyte on the eastern flank of Erebus suggest a major previously unrecognized episode of trachytic volcanism. The trachyte lavas are chemically and isotopically distinct from alkaline lavas erupted contemporaneously in the summit region < 5 km away.     

Estimating nutrient budgets in tropical estuaries subject to episodic flows

Most Australian estuaries are subject to riverine discharge regimes that are highly episodic. This characteristic poses difficulties for estimating nutrient budgets of such systems based on sampling regimes that do not resolve the discharge variation and the changes in nutrient distributions that they cause. This paper presents a method for calculating nutrient budgets in estuaries having episodic hydrology. The method utilises a simple hydrodynamic transport model that is calibrated using measured salinities and which is used to describe the transport properties of the estuary as they respond to river discharge. Using this transport model, the temporal variation in nutrient concentrations within the estuary can be resolved between sampling surveys even when the discharge events are of short duration. An inverse method is then applied to calculate internal fluxes of nutrients from measurements obtained on successive sampling surveys. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the Fitzroy Estuary in Queensland, Australia.     

Solar cosmic ray records in lunar rock 64455

Cosmic ray produced ¹⁰Be (half-life = 1.36 × 10⁶ yr), ²⁶Al (7.05 × 10⁵ yr), and ³⁶Cl (3.01 × 10⁵ yr) were measured in a depth profile of 19 carefully-ground samples from the glass-coated lunar surface rock 64455. The solar cosmic ray (SCR) produced ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl in this rock are present in high concentrations, which in combination with the low observed erosion rate, <0.5 mm/Myr, provide well defined depth profiles characterizing the SCR component of the cosmic rays. In conjunction with new experimentally determined excitation functions, the ³⁶Cl concentrations suggest a softer solar-proton spectral shape than that derived from most previous measurements. The fact that no SCR-produced ¹⁰Be activity could be detected in 64455 is in good agreement with observations in 68815 and also indicates a softer SCR spectrum. Comparison of observed SCR profiles in 64455 with theoretical calculations indicates that the average solar-proton spectrum over the past 2 Myr (based on ²⁶Al) has an exponential rigidity parameter (R₀) of about 90 MV with a proton flux (J) of 73 protons/cm²/s·4π above 10 MeV. Over the last ∼0.5 Myr (based on ³⁶Cl) R₀ is about 70 MV with a flux of ∼196 protons/cm²/s·4π above 10 MeV. These SCR fluxes are consistent with most previous work.     

Possible implications of modal mineralogy for melting in mantle lherzolites

The melting reaction at the solidus of mantle peridotite is commonly peritectic in nature, with liquid and one or more solid phases produced upon melting. In some situations, one of the phases participating on the reactant side of the reaction is present in low abundance. This article explores the possible effects of the low abundance of a reactant phase on the melting behavior of mantle peridotite.For example, spinel lherzolite begins to melt via the peritectic reaction, clinopyroxene + orthopyroxene + spinel = olivine + liquid in the ∼1- to 2-GPa pressure range. In natural spinel lherzolites, spinel is a modally minor mineral and may be infrequently in contact with both clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene. If these mutual contacts are insufficient to generate an interconnected melt, then significant melting may not occur until a combination of minerals that are modally abundant and in contact begin to melt. This scenario could have implications for the physical process of melting and for the timing of formation of an interconnected melt network and separation of the melt from the residue.To begin to investigate this possibility, the spatial relationships between the constituent minerals in two fertile spinel lherzolites were determined by elemental mapping with the electron microprobe. Olivine, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene are of similar size, whereas the spinel was smaller and interstitial. Spinel and clinopyroxene are frequently in contact, but mutual contacts of spinel, clinopyroxene, and orthopyroxene are rare. Because of the changes in modal mineralogy anticipated for these lherzolites with increasing temperature, these mutual contacts will be even less common at the solidus. Therefore, an interconnected, potentially extractable, melt may not occur by the solidus spinel + orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene melting reaction.     

2.8-Ma ash-flow caldera at Chegem River in the northern Caucasus Mountains (Russia), contemporaneous granites, and associated ore deposits

Diverse latest Pliocene volcanic and plutonic rocks in the north-central Caucasus Mountains of southern Russia are newly interpreted as components of a large caldera system that erupted a compositionally zoned rhyolite-dacite ash-flow sheet at 2.83 ± 0.02 Ma (sanidine and biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar). Despite its location within a cratonic collision zone, the Chegem system is structurally and petrologically similar to typical calderas of continental-margin volcanic arcs. Erosional remnants of the outflow Chegem Tuff sheet extend at least 50 km north from the source caldera in the upper Chegem River. These outflow remnants were previously interpreted by others as erupted from several local vents, but petrologic similarities indicate a common origin and correlation with thick intracaldera Chegem Tuff. The 11 × 15 km caldera and associated intrusions are superbly exposed over a vertical range of 2,300 m in deep canyons above treeline (elev. to 3,800 m). Densely welded intracaldera Chegem Tuff, previously described by others as a rhyolite lava plateau, forms a single cooling unit, is > 2 km thick, and contains large slide blocks from the caldera walls. Caldera subsidence was accommodated along several concentric ring fractures. No prevolcanic floor is exposed within the central core of the caldera. The caldera-filling tuff is overlain by andesitic lavas and cut by a 2.84 ± 0.03-Ma porphyritic granodiorite intrusion that has a cooling age analytically indistinguishable from that of the tuffs. The Eldjurta Granite, a pluton exposed low in the next large canyon (Baksan River) 10 km to the northwest of the caldera, yields variable K-feldspar and biotite ages (2.8 to 1.0 Ma) through a 5-km vertical range in surface and drill-hole samples. These variable dates appear to record a prolonged complex cooling history within upper parts of another caldera-related pluton. Major W-Mo ore deposits at the Tirniauz mine are hosted in skarns and hornfels along the roof of the Eldjurta Granite, and associated aplitic phases have textural features of Climax-type molybdenite porphyries in the western USA. Similar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, mineral chemistry, and bulk-rock compositions indicate that the Chegem Tuff, intracaldera intrusion, and Eldjurta Granite are all parts of a large magmatic system that broadly resembles the middle Tertiary Questa caldera system and associated Mo deposits in northern New Mexico, USA. Because of their young age and superb three-dimensional exposures, rocks of the Chegem-Tirniauz region offer exceptional opportunities for detailed study of caldera structures, compositional gradients in volcanic rocks relative to cogenetic granites, and the thermal and fluid-flow history of a large young upper-crustal magmatic system.     

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed

Future climate projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios are usually used for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the existing GCMs have only limited ability to simulate the complex and local climate features, such as precipitation. Furthermore, the outputs provided by GCMs are too coarse to be useful in hydrologic impact assessment models, as these models require information at much finer scales. Therefore, downscaling of GCM outputs is usually employed to provide fine-resolution information required for impact models. Among the downscaling techniques based on statistical principles, multiple regression and weather generator are considered to be more popular, as they are computationally less demanding than the other downscaling techniques. In the present study, the performances of a multiple regression model (called SDSM) and a weather generator (called LARS-WG) are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the frequency of extreme precipitation events of current climate and downscaling of future extreme events. Areal average daily precipitation data of the Clutha watershed located in South Island, New Zealand, are used as baseline data in the analysis. Precipitation frequency analysis is performed by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the observed, the SDSM simulated/downscaled, and the LARS-WG simulated/downscaled annual maximum (AM) series. The computations are performed for five return periods: 10-, 20-, 40-, 50- and 100-year. The present results illustrate that both models have similar and good ability to simulate the extreme precipitation events and, thus, can be adopted with confidence for climate change impact studies of this nature.