4D seismic for oil-rim monitoring

In the central North Sea ‘Gannet‐A’ field, a 50 ft oil rim is overlain by a gas cap of variable thickness. Oil is produced from horizontal wells which initially produced dry oil, but as the field became more mature, a significant water cut was seen in several wells. A dedicated 4D seismic monitor survey was acquired in order to assess the remaining distribution of oil reserves. By forward modelling the synthetic seismic response to parameters such as contact movement and residual saturations (using 2D and 3D wedge models), and comparing the results with real seismic data, we are able to decipher the contact movements across the field. It is shown that, in one part of the field, the increased water cut is caused primarily by the vertical displacement of the entire oil rim into the initial gas cap. This oil‐rim displacement produces a very different 4D seismic response from the case of a static gas–oil contact and rising oil–water contact (normal production). As a result of these observations, we are able to optimize field production by both re‐perforation of existing wells and by drilling sidetracks into the displaced rim: a brown‐field development opportunity that might otherwise be missed.     

2007: International Heliophysical Year

The International Heliophysical Year is an international programme of global research to understand the external drivers of the space environment and climate, continuing the tradition of previous International Years. It is introduced here by Richard Harrison, Andy Breen, Barbara Bromage and Joe Davila.     

A stratigraphic network across the Subtropical Front in the central South Atlantic: Multi-parameter correlation of magnetic susceptibility, density, X-ray fluorescence and δO records

Computer aided multi-parameter signal correlation is used to develop a common high-precision age model for eight gravity cores from the subtropical and subantarctic South Atlantic. Since correlations between all pairs of multi-parameter sequences are used, and correlation errors between core pairs (A, B) and (B, C) are controlled by comparison with (A, C), the resulting age model is called a stratigraphic network. Precise inter-core correlation is achieved using high-resolution records of magnetic susceptibility κ, wet bulk density ρ and X-ray fluorescence scans of elemental composition. Additional δ¹⁸O records are available for two cores. The data indicate nearly undisturbed sediment series and the absence of significant hiatuses or turbidites. After establishing a high-precision common depth scale by synchronously correlating four densely measured parameters (Fe, Ca, κ, ρ), the final age model is obtained by simultaneously fitting the aligned δ¹⁸O and κ records of the stratigraphic network to orbitally tuned oxygen isotope [J. Imbrie, J. D. Hays, D. G. Martinson, A. McIntyre, A. C. Mix, J. J. Morley, N. G. Pisias, W. L. Prell, N. J. Shackleton, The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: support from a revised chronology of the marine δ¹⁸O record, in: A. Berger, J. Imbrie, J. Hays, G. Kukla, B. Saltzman (Eds.), Milankovitch and Climate: Understanding the Response to Orbital Forcing, Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, 1984, pp. 269-305; D. Martinson, N. Pisias, J. Hays, J. Imbrie, T. C. Moore Jr., N. Shackleton, Age dating and the orbital theory of the Ice Ages: development of a high-resolution 0 to 300.000-Year chronostratigraphy, Quat. Res. 27 (1987) 1-29.] or susceptibility stacks [T. von Dobeneck, F.Schmieder, Using rock magnetic proxy records for orbital tuning and extended time series analyses into the super-and sub-Milankovitch Bands, in: G. Fischer, G. Wefer (Eds.), Use of proxies in paleoceanography: Examples from the South Atlantic, Springer-Verlag, Berlin (1999), pp. 601-633.]. Besides the detection and elimination of errors in single records, the stratigraphic network approach allows to check the intrinsic consistency of the final result by comparing it to the outcome of more restricted alignment procedures. The final South Atlantic stratigraphic network covers the last 400 kyr south and the last 1200 kyr north of the Subtropical Front (STF) and provides a highly precise age model across the STF representing extremely different sedimentary regimes. This allows to detect temporal shifts of the STF by mapping δMn / Fe. It turns out that the apparent STF movements by about 200 km are not directly related to marine oxygen isotope stages.     

Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after main shock

We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004. We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time T_s and the minimum magnitude threshold M_min for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short T_s and low M_min while the latters generally perform better than the formers for T_s longer than a few hours and M_min larger than the main shock magnitude M_m minus 3 units. For T_s > 1 day or M_min > M_m − 2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock. We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL). We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOM with c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.     

Propagation of orographic barriers along an active range front: insights from sandstone petrography and detrital apatite fission-track thermochronology in the intramontane Angastaco basin, NW Argentina

The arid Puna plateau of the southern Central Andes is characterized by Cenozoic distributed shortening forming intramontane basins that are disconnected from the humid foreland because of the defeat of orogen‐traversing channels. Thick Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary fills in Puna basins have reduced topographic contrasts between the compressional basins and ranges, leading to a typical low‐relief plateau morphology. Structurally identical basins that are still externally drained straddle the eastern border of the Puna and document the eastward propagation of orographic barriers and ensuing aridification. One of them, the Angastaco basin, is transitional between the highly compartmentalized Puna highlands and the undeformed Andean foreland. Sandstone petrography, structural and stratigraphic analysis, combined with detrital apatite fission‐track thermochronology from a ～6200‐m‐thick Miocene to Pliocene stratigraphic section in the Angastaco basin, document the late Eocene to late Pliocene exhumation history of source regions along the eastern border of the Puna (Eastern Cordillera (EC)) as well as the construction of orographic barriers along the southeastern flank of the Central Andes. Onset of exhumation of a source in the EC in late Eocene time as well as a rapid exhumation of the Sierra de Luracatao (in the EC) at about 20 Ma are recorded in the detrital sediments of the Angastaco basin. Sediment accumulation in the basin began ～15 Ma, a time at which the EC had already built sufficient topography to prevent Puna sourced detritus from reaching the basin. After ～13 Ma, shortening shifted eastward, exhuming ranges that preserve an apatite fission‐track partial annealing zone recording cooling during the late Cretaceous rifting event. Facies changes and fossil content suggest that after 9 Ma, the EC constituted an effective orographic barrier that prevented moisture penetration into the plateau. Between 3.4 and 2.4 Ma, another orographic barrier was uplifted to the east, leading to further aridification and pronounced precipitation gradients along the mountain front. This study emphasizes the important role of tectonics in the evolution of climate in this part of the Andes.     

An open source high-performance solution to extract surface water drainage networks from diverse terrain conditions

This paper describes a workflow for automating the extraction of elevation-derived stream lines using open source tools with parallel computing support and testing the effectiveness of procedures in various terrain conditions within the conterminous United States. Drainage networks are extracted from the US Geological Survey 1/3 arc-second 3D Elevation Program elevation data having a nominal cell size of 10 m. This research demonstrates the utility of open source tools with parallel computing support for extracting connected drainage network patterns and handling depressions in 30 subbasins distributed across humid, dry, and transitional climate regions and in terrain conditions exhibiting a range of slopes. Special attention is given to low-slope terrain, where network connectivity is preserved by generating synthetic stream channels through lake and waterbody polygons. Conflation analysis compares the extracted streams with a 1:24,000-scale National Hydrography Dataset flowline network and shows that similarities are greatest for second- and higher-order tributaries.     

Streamline method for resolving sharp fronts for complex two-phase flow in porous media

In this paper, we present a fast streamline-based numerical method for the two-phase flow equations in high-rate flooding scenarios for incompressible fluids in heterogeneous and anisotropic porous media. A fractional flow formulation is adopted and a discontinuous Galerkin method (DG) is employed to solve the pressure equation. Capillary effects can be neglected in high-rate flooding scenarios. This allows us to present an improved streamline approach in combination with the one-dimensional front tracking method to solve the transport equation. To handle the high computational costs of the DG approximation, domain decomposition is applied combined with an algebraic multigrid preconditioner to solve the linear system. Special care at the interior interfaces is required and the streamline tracer has to include a dynamic communication strategy. The method is validated in various two- and three-dimensional tests, where comparisons of the solutions in terms of approximation of flow front propagation with standard fully implicit finite-volume methods are provided.     

Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO₂ mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010–2100 period (600–3050 GtCO₂), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO₂ indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample.