How ready is ready? Measuring physical preparedness for severe storms

This paper investigates use of inventories, or checklists of activities, as an emergency management tool to motivate preparedness action in individuals. It develops the inventory concept to provide the foundation for a more targeted approach to storm preparation communication and community engagement. It also examines the potential efficacy of alternatives to paper-based checklists, such as web or smartphone applications. Academic and grey literature was reviewed to collect activities for a storm inventory for emergency agencies to measure individual preparedness and for individuals to measure their preparation progress. The resulting master list was refined for application and tested for useability in a pilot study of semi-structured interviews in a storm-susceptible community in Queensland, Australia. Also, clustering items by type of preparedness activity reveal where strengths and weaknesses exist in individual preparedness. For instance, preparation for leaving and safety planning were shown to be the areas of weakest activity in the pilot sample, while preparation of the house for a storm was the strongest area. In addition, behaviour change literature shows potential for effective use of an inventory-based smartphone application in motivating preparation activity. Data collected by a storm preparedness smartphone application could show where a communication or engagement program for targeted communities should be focused. It is supported by health literature that identifies preferences of individuals to make progress on complex tasks in stages, the value of lists to achievement of goals and demonstrated increase in uptake of activities prompted by smartphone applications over web or paper-based diaries.

     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Environmental changes in southeastern Amazonia during the last 25,000 yr revealed from a paleoecological record

New pollen, micro-charcoal, sediment and mineral analyses of a radiocarbon-dated sediment core from the Serra Sul dos Carajás (southeast Amazonia) indicate changes between drier and wetter climatic conditions during the past 25,000 yr, reflected by fire events, expansion of savanna vegetation and no-analog Amazonian forest communities. A cool and dry last glacial maximum (LGM) and late glacial were followed by a wet phase in the early Holocene lasting for ca. 1200 yr, when tropical forest occurred under stable humid conditions. Subsequently, an increasingly warm, seasonal climate established. The onset of seasonality falls within the early Holocene warm period, with possibly longer dry seasons from 10,200 to 3400 cal yr BP, and an explicitly drier phase from 9000 to 3700 cal yr BP. Modern conditions with shorter dry seasons became established after 3400 cal yr BP. Taken together with paleoenvironmental evidence from elsewhere in the Amazon Basin, the observed changes in late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation in the Serra Sul dos Carajás likely reflect large-scale shifts in precipitation patterns driven by the latitudinal displacement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and changes in sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.     

High-resolution paleoecological analysis of recent disturbance in a southern Chilean Nothofagus forest

A 1600 year paleoecological record of environmental change is developed from a small lake in the Nothofagus forest of southern Chile (45.5°S, 72°W). High resolution fossil pollen, charcoal, sedimentological, and chrysophycean stomatocyst analyses are used to investigate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on terrestrial and lacustrine environments. Chronological control is based on a combination of ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴C dating. Temporal resolution during the past 150–200 yr is ca. 8 yr/sample. The macroscopic charcoal record correlates very closely with historical and dendroecological records of 20th century anthropogenic burning in this region. The chrysophyte stratigraphy indicates that this burning had immediate impacts on the lake itself, while the pollen record provides evidence for a succession of vegetation changes lagging slightly behind the disturbance. These palynological changes are very similar to the pollen signal of European disturbance in northeastern North America. Pre-European shifts in chrysophyte assemblages may be due to the influence of earthquake activity on the lake, though there is no corroborative evidence in the pollen or charcoal records. This study demonstrates that high resolution paleoecological methods can be used to help bridge the temporal gap between traditional ecological and paleoecological studies of environmental change in the temperate forests of southern South America.     

Evidence for MTBE in Heating Oil

"Contamination of heating oil with MTBE could result in increasing the environmental impact of subsurface heating oil releases."     

Seismic structure of the upper mantle beneath the United States by three-dimensional inversion of body wave arrival times

Summary. Teleseismic P and S arrival times to North American stations are obtained from the ISC bulletins for the 10-yr period 1964–73, and relative travel-time delays are calculated with respect to standard tables. Station anomalies as well as variations of the delays with azimuth and epicentral distance from station are analysed, and the location of the velocity anomalies responsible for them is discussed. Inversion of the P delays to infer upper mantle velocity structure down to a depth of 700 km is obtained using three-dimensional blocks, as proposed by Aki, Christofferson & Husebye. Three layers can be resolved in this depth range. It is found that the heterogeneities responsible for the travel-time delays are primarily located in the first 250 km of the upper mantle, and that they correlate with surface features. Significant heterogeneities subsist to depths of at least 700 km and their broad scale pattern also correlates with the surface features: in the third layer (500 to 700 km depth) there is an increase of velocity from the West to the East of the United States, while the second layer (250 to 450 km depth) exhibits a reversed pattern. A tentative interpretation of these deeper anomalies is made, as being due mainly to topography of the major upper mantle discontinuities, near 400 and 650 km depth.     

Similarity of atmospheric Reynolds shear stress and heat flux fluctuations over a rough surface

Horizontal u and vertical w velocity fluctuations have been measured together with temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer, at a small height above a wheat crop canopy. Marginal probability density functions are presented for both individual fluctuations u, w, and for the instantaneous Reynolds stress uw, and heat fluxes w and u. Probability density functions of the velocity fluctuations deviate less significantly from the Gaussian form than the probability density of temperature. There appears to be closer similarity between statistics of the instantaneous heat fluxes than between the momentum flux and either of the heat fluxes investigated. The mean momentum flux receives equal contributions from the events referred to as ejections and sweeps in laboratory boundary layers. Sweeps provide the largest contribution to the heat fluxes.     

Variation in style of magmatism and emplacement mechanism induced by changes in basin environments and stress fields (Pannonian Basin,Central Europe)

The development of high‐resolution 3D seismic cubes has permitted recognition of variable subvolcanic features mostly located in passive continental margins. Our study area is situated in a different tectonic setting, in the extensional Pannonian Basin system (central Europe) where the lithospheric extension was associated with a wide variety of magmatic suites during the Miocene. Our primary objective is to map the buried magmatic bodies, to better understand the temporal and spatial variation in the style of magmatism and emplacement mechanism within the first order Mid‐Hungarian Fault Zone (MHFZ) along which the substantial Miocene displacement took place. The combination of seismic, borehole and log data interpretation enabled us to delineate various previously unknown subvolcanic‐volcanic features. In addition, a new approach of neural network analysis on log data was applied to detect and quantitatively characterise hydrothermal mounds that are hard to interpret solely from seismic data. The volcanic activity started in the Middle Miocene and induced the development of extrusive volcanic mounds south of the NE‐SW trending, continuous strike‐slip fault zone (Hajdú Fault Zone). In the earliest Late Miocene (11.6–9.78 Ma), the style of magmatic activity changed resulting in emplacement of intrusions and development of hydrothermal mounds. Sill emplacement occurred from south‐east to north‐west based on primary flow‐emplacement structures. The time of sill emplacement and the development of hydrothermal mounds can be bracketed by onlapped forced folds and mounds. This time coincided with the acceleration of sedimentation producing poorly consolidated, water‐saturated sediments preventing magma from flowing to the paleosurface. The change in extensional direction resulted in change in fault pattern, thus the formerly continuous basin‐bounding strike‐slip fault became segmented which could facilitate the magma flow toward the basin centre.     

Assessment of coastal flooding hazard along the Emilia Romagna littoral,IT

Aim of this paper is to develop simple tools for mapping — at regional and local scale — coastal areas exposed at flooding risk. A two-step simplified procedure for coastal management purposes is presented and is applied to Emilia Romagna (Italy), whose low and sandy coast faces the relatively mild Northern Adriatic Sea. The procedure is composed by a 1D conceptual model to determine flooding probability along wide coastal stretches and by a more detailed 2D Level II reliability method, that provides local quantitative statistical maps of inland flooding propagation. Qualitative maps obtained by literature approaches and quantitative results of flooding probability along the littoral show a good agreement. A coastal flood state indicator is proposed to rapidly assess coastal hazard.