Factor analysis for El Niño signals in sea surface temperature and precipitation

Maximum likelihood factor analysis (MLFA) is applied to investigate the variables of monthly Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) from Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 and precipitation over New South Wales and Queensland of eastern Australia, Kalimantan Island of Indonesia, and California and Oregon of the west coast of the United States. The monthly data used were from 1950 to 1999. The November-February SST with time leads of 0, 1, 2, and 3 months to precipitation are considered for both El Niño warm phases and non El Niño seasons. Interpretations of the factor loadings are made to diagnose relationships between the SST and precipitation variables. For El Niño signals, the rotated FA loadings can efficiently group the SST and precipitation variables with interpretable physical meanings. When the time lag is 0 or 1 month, the November–February El Niño SST explains much of the drought signals over eastern Australia and Kalimantan. However, when the time lag is 2 or 3 months, the same SST cannot adequately explain the precipitation during January–May over the two regions. Communality results of five factors for precipitation indicate nearly 100% explanation of variances for Queensland and California, but the percentages are reduced to only about 30% for Oregon and Kalimantan. Factor scores clearly identify the strongest El Niño relevant to precipitation variations. Principal component factor analysis (PCFA) is also investigated, and its results are compared with MLFA. The comparison indicates that MLFA can better group SST data relevant to precipitation. The residuals of MLFA are always smaller than the PCFA. Thus, MLFA may become a useful tool for improving potential predictability of precipitation from SST predictors.     

Sediment dynamics in an upland temperate catchment: changing sediment sources,rates and deposition

We examine sediment dynamics in an upland, temperate lake system, Lake Bassenthwaite (NW England), in the context of changing climate and land use, using magnetic and physical core properties. Dating and analysis of the sedimentary records of nine recovered cores identify spatially variable sedimentation rates across the deep lake basin. Mineral magnetic techniques, supported by independent geochemical analyses, identify significant variations both in sediment source and flux over the last ∼2100 years. Between ∼100 years BC and ∼1700 AD, sediment fluxes to the lake were low and dominated by material sourced from within the River Derwent sub-catchment (providing 80% of the hydraulic load at the present day). Post-1700 AD, the lake sediments became dominantly sourced from Newlands Beck (presently providing ∼10% of the lake’s hydraulic load). Three successive, major pulses of erosion and increased sediment flux appear linked to specific activities within the catchment, specifically: mining activities and associated deforestation in the mid-late nineteenth century; agricultural intensification in the mid-twentieth century and, within the last decade, the additional possible impact of climate change. These results are important for all upland areas as modifications in climate become progressively superimposed upon the effects of previous and/or ongoing anthropogenic catchment disturbance.     

Predicting torsion‐induced lateral displacements for pushover analysis: Influence of torsional system characteristics

The increasing popularity of simplified nonlinear methods in seismic design has recently led to many proposals for procedures aimed at extending pushover analysis to plan asymmetric structures. In terms of practical applications, one particularly promising approach is based on combining pushover analysis of a 3D structural model with the results of linear (modal) dynamic analysis. The effectiveness of such procedure, however, is contingent on one fundamental requirement: the elastic prediction of the envelope of lateral displacements must be conservative with respect to the actual inelastic one. This paper aims at verifying the above assumption through an extensive parametric analysis conducted with simplified single‐storey models. The main structural parameters influencing torsional response in the elastic and inelastic range of behaviour are varied, while devoting special attention to the system stiffness eccentricity and radius. The analysis clarifies the main features of inelastic torsional response of different types of building structures; in this manner, it is found that the above‐mentioned method is generally suitable for structures characterized by moderate to large torsional stiffness, whereas it cannot be recommended for extremely torsionally stiff structures, as their inelastic torsional response almost always exceeds the elastic one. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

构造板块的厚度

板块构造的基本前提是形成于洋中脊的刚性岩石圈板块漂浮在更易变形的软流层之上。有关软流圈的确切性质至今仍然存在争议。力学模型预测出的是清晰、鲜明的岩石圈．软流圈边界（LAB）,但传统地震学得出的这一边界却是比较模糊的。     

Generation and evolution of a topographically linked,mesoscale eddy under steady and variable wind-forcing

Numerical simulations with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) are used to study the initial spin-up and the evolution of a mesoscale, topographically linked eddy under steady and variable wind conditions. The development of a pool of dense water on the southern Vancouver Island shelf allows cyclonic eddies formed by coastal upwelling off Cape Flattery to spread westward, ultimately contributing to the shelf-wide circulation known as the Juan de Fuca Eddy. This dense water arises through upwelling of water present in the underlying canyon system and tidal mixing over several shallow banks to the north. Tidal mixing is critical to the separation of the eddy from the coast. Although steady upwelling winds with a seasonal mean magnitude (combined with estuarine flow and tides) produce an eddy, only fluctuating winds with timescales and magnitudes typical of the region result in an eddy with a westward extent similar to seasonal observations. With each period of upwelling-favorable winds, newly upwelled water from the coast is entrained into the eddy which grows in size and moves westward. Wind events also significantly affect the baroclinic structure of the eddy. Specifically, during typical summer wind reversals, model surface drifters continue to move cyclonically within the eddy for several days after each downwelling wind event. Under upwelling-favorable wind conditions, model drifters exit the eddy to the southeast as the eddy and coastal upwelling fronts merge into a continuous southeastward shelf break jet.     

Chemistry of sediments from the Dobezyce Reservoir, Poland, and the environmental implications

Sediments samples of the Dobczyce Reservoir(South Poland) were taken in three successive years(2004-06) at 17 points,analyzed for 12 elements by atomic absorption spectrometry.Substantial variations in elemental composition due to hydrological and environmental reasons were found.The use of statistical and chemometric tools enabled objective and effective analysis of the data obtained,both in case of long term observations as well as in terms of interpretation of incidental changes in metal concentrations.T...     

Microtremor study of site effects and soil-structure resonance in the city of Ljubljana (central Slovenia)

The city of Ljubljana is located in one of the three areas with the highest seismic hazard in Slovenia, and it is also the most densely populated. Site effects due to Quaternary sediments, which fill the up to 200 m-deep basin, are characteristic of the whole city area, but they can be especially strong in the southern part of Ljubljana, which is built on very soft lacustrine deposits. Existing microzonation studies of the city are inadequate, since there is a lack of borehole, geophysical and earthquake data. The microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method was therefore applied to a 200 m dense grid of free-field measurements over an area of 45 km² (1,223 measuring points) in order to assess the fundamental frequency of the sediments. The main difficulties in microtremor measurement arose from high levels of traffic and industrial noise, and from underground structures. Experimental conditions which can influence data quality, such as strong wind and water saturation of soil, were analysed. Very clear HVSR peaks were obtained in the entire southern part of the city, whereas in the northern part the site response is in general lower due to lower impedance contrast of gravel with the bedrock. The iso-frequency map of sediments shows a distribution in the range of 0.9–10 Hz. In the southern part of Ljubljana, sediment frequency correlates well with the thickness of soft sediments known from geophysical investigations and sparse drilling. Average amplitude of the HVSR peaks is considerably higher in the southern part (6.7 ± 2.4) than in the northern part (4.0 ± 2.0) of the city, indicating a high impedance contrast of lacustrine sediments with the bedrock. Microtremor measurements were also performed inside 122 buildings of various heights. We focused on important public buildings and selected blocks of flats and houses. To assess the longitudinal and transverse fundamental frequencies of each building, amplitude spectra and the spectral ratio between the upper floor and the basement were analysed for both directions. When one of these frequencies is close to a nearby free-field fundamental frequency, a potential soil-structure resonance is present. This was found in 12 of the measured buildings. Three of them are tall residential buildings (from 10 to 15 floors) with a fundamental frequency of 2–3 Hz, and nine of them are low-rise buildings (from 3 to 5 floors) with a fundamental frequency ranging from 3 to 4.5 Hz. Using the relationship between fundamental frequency and height, the typical height of buildings that might cause soil-structure resonance can be estimated at a given sediment frequency obtained from free-field measurements.     

Italian strong motion database relative to the period 1972–2004: motivations and aims

The Italian Accelerometic Archive (ITACA) was created in 2007 during a joint project between the Italian Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV) and the Italian Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, DPC). The project, started in 2006, had the aim of filling the data gap of existing strong motion databases and facilitating strong motion data users in obtaining good quality waveforms, through the collection, homogenization and distribution of strong motion data acquired during the period 1972–2004 in Italy by different institutions (Ente Nazionale per l’Energia Elettrica, ENEL, Italian electricity company; Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente, ENEA, Italian energy and environment organization DPC). The compiled database contains 2,182 three-component waveforms generated by 1,008 earthquakes with a maximum moment magnitude of 6.9 (1980 Irpinia earthquake) and can be accessed on-line at the portal denominated ITACA at the site , where a wide range of search tools enables the user to interactively retrieve events, recording stations and waveforms with particular characteristics, whose parameters can be specified, as needed, through user friendly interfaces. A range of display options allows users to view data in different contexts, extract and download time series and spectral data. This article describes the state of the art up to 2006 and the activities which led to the completion of the project.     

Climate and environment during the Younger Dryas (GS‐1) as reflected by composite stable isotope records of lacustrine carbonates at Torreberga,southern Sweden

Climatic and environmental changes during the Younger Dryas stadial (GS‐1) and preceding and following transitions are inferred from stable carbon and oxygen isotope records obtained from the sediments of ancient Lake Torreberga, southern Sweden. Event GS‐1 is represented in the sediment sequence by 3.5 m of clay containing lacustrine carbonates of various origins. Comparison of isotopic records obtained on mollusc shells, ostracod valves, and Chara encrustations precipitated during specific seasons of the year supports estimates of relative changes in both lake water and mean annual air temperatures. Variations in soil erosion rates can also be estimated from a simple isotope–mass‐balance model to separate allochthonous and autochthonous carbonate contributions to the bulk carbonate content of the sediments. The well‐known, rapid climatic shifts characterising the Last Termination in the North Atlantic region are clearly reflected in the isotopic data, as well as longer‐term changes within GS‐1. Following maximum cooling shortly after the Allerød–Younger Dryas (GI‐1–GS‐1) transition, a progressive warming and a slight increase in aquatic productivity is indicated. At the Younger Dryas–Preboreal (GS‐1–PB) transition mean annual air temperature rapidly increased by more than 5°C and summer lake‐water temperature increased by ca. 12°C. The subsequent Preboreal oscillation is characterised by an increase in soil erosion and a slight decrease in mean annual air temperature. These results are in harmony with recent findings about large‐scale climate dynamics during the Last Termination. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantification of TCE Co‐Oxidation in Groundwater Using a 14C–Assay

Bacteria that degrade natural organic matter in groundwater contain oxygenase enzymes that can co‐oxidize trichloroethene (TCE). This degradation pathway is promising for large dilute plumes, but its evaluation is limited because the density of the bacteria with oxygenase enzymes has not been correlated to field scale rates of degradation. A ¹⁴C–TCE assay was developed to determine pseudo first‐order rate constants for the aerobic co‐oxidation of TCE in groundwater. The assay involved incubating ¹⁴C–TCE in samples of groundwater contained in 160 mL serum bottles, and monitoring the accumulation of radiolabel in degradation products. A first‐order rate constant for co‐oxidation was extracted from the rate of accumulation of ¹⁴C in products, accounting for volumetric changes in the serum bottles due to sampling and subsequent changes to the distribution of TCE between the aqueous and gaseous phases. Of the groundwater samples evaluated from 19 wells at five sites, eight samples at three sites had ¹⁴C product accumulation rates that exceeded the accumulation rate in filter‐sterilized groundwater controls. First‐order rate constants ranged from 2.65 to 0.0066 year^?1, which is equivalent to half‐lives of 0.26 to 105 years. Groundwater samples from a few of the wells in which co‐oxidation occurred had volatile organic contaminants in addition to TCE; their presence may have induced the oxygenase enzymes that are needed for TCE co‐oxidation. ¹⁴CO₂ represented ~37% to 97% of the ¹⁴C products that accumulated; the balance of the products was soluble and non‐volatile.