Spatial and time variations in critical frequencies of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region above the zone of equatorial earthquake preparation

Spatial and time variations in the critical frequencies foF2 before the strong earthquake of August 15, 1963, with the magnitude M = 7.75 are analyzed. The epicenter of the earthquake was located in the vicinity of the magnetic equator in the American longitudinal sector. The data of the topside ionosonde on board Alouette-1 and of the series of ground-based ionosondes has been used for this purpose. The ground-based ionosondes made it possible to detect an insignificant anomalous decrease in foF2 within the zone of earthquake preparation a few days prior to the earthquake. This result confirms the conclusion drawn earlier on the basis of the satellite data. The modification of the ionosphere at the F-region level is more evident in the satellite than in the ground-based data. It is also noted that the character of the time variations in foF2 a day before the earthquake is similar to the so called “quiet time” Q-disturbances in the ionosphere, when the electron concentration at the F region maximum differs from the median values by more than 20% under undisturbed geophysical conditions.     

Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: effects on the overall inventory uncertainty

An uncertainty assessment of the Austrian greenhouse gas inventory provided the basis for this analysis. We isolated the factors that were responsible for the uncertainty observed, and compared our results with those of other countries. Uncertainties of input parameters were used to derive the uncertainty of the emission estimate. Resulting uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach was 5.2% for the emission levels of 2005 and 2.4 percentage points for the 1990–2005 emission trend. Systematic uncertainty was not assessed. This result is in the range expected from previous experience in Austria and other countries. The determining factor for the emission level uncertainty (not the trend uncertainty) is the uncertainty associated with soil nitrous oxide N₂O emissions. Uncertainty of the soil N₂O release rate is huge, and there is no agreement even on the magnitude of the uncertainty when country comparisons are made. In other words, reporting and use of N₂O release uncertainty are also different between countries; this is important, as this single factor fully determines a country’s national greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty. Inter-country comparisons of emission uncertainty are thus unable to reveal much about a country’s inventory quality. For Austria, we also compared the results of the Monte Carlo approach to those obtained from a simpler error propagation approach, and find the latter to systematically provide lower uncertainty. The difference can be explained by the ability of the Monte Carlo approach to account for statistical dependency of input parameters, again regarding soil N₂O emissions. This is in contrast to the results of other countries, which focus less on statistical dependency when performing Monte Carlo analysis. In addition, the error propagation results depend on treatment of skewed probability distributions, which need to be translated into normal distributions. The result indicates that more attention needs to be given to identifying statistically dependent input data in uncertainty assessment.     

Observing upper troposphere–lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite

High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data, using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3, 2006 to August 8, 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature, microwave refractivity, geopotential height and pressure with 10° latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences <0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is <0.2 K, higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature climatologies is estimated to be <0.5 K below 30 km. The recently launched Taiwan/U.S. FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC constellation of 6 RO satellites started to provide thousands of RO profiles per day, but already now the single-satellite CHAMP RO climatologies improve upon modern operational climatologies in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere and can act as absolute reference climatologies for validation of more bias-sensitive climate datasets and models.     

Asian monsoon climate during the Last Glacial Maximum: palaeo‐data–model comparisons

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23–19 ka BP) in the Asian monsoon region is generally described as cool and dry, due to a strong winter monsoon. More recently, however, palaeo‐data and climate model simulations have argued for a more variable LGM Asian monsoon climate with distinct regional differences. We compiled, evaluated, and partly re‐assessed proxy records for the Asian monsoon region in terms of wet/dry climatic conditions based on precipitation and effective moisture, and of sea surface temperatures. The comparison of the palaeo‐data set to LGM simulations by the Climate Community System Model version 3 (CCSM3) shows fairly good agreement: a dry LGM climate in the western and northern part due to a strengthened winter monsoon and/or strengthened westerly winds and wetter conditions in equatorial areas, due to a stronger summer monsoon. Data–model discrepancies are seen in some areas and are ascribed to the fairly coarse resolution of CCSM3 and/or to uncertainties in the reconstructions. Differences are also observed between the reconstructed and simulated northern boundaries of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The reconstructions estimate a more southern position over southern India and the Bay of Bengal, whereas CCSM3 simulates a more northern position. In Indochina, the opposite is the case. The palaeo‐data indicate that climatic conditions changed around 20–19 ka BP, with some regions receiving higher precipitation and some experiencing drier conditions, which would imply a distinct shift in summer monsoon intensity. This shift was probably triggered by the late LGM sea‐level rise, which led to changes in atmosphere–ocean interactions in the Indian Ocean. The overall good correspondence between reconstructions and CCSM3 suggests that CCSM3 simulates LGM climate conditions over subtropical and tropical areas fairly well. The few high‐resolution qualitative and quantitative palaeo‐records available for the large Asian monsoon region make reconstructions however still uncertain.     

The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from integrated assessment modelling

Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO₂ over the 2000–2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 GtCO₂/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO₂/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO₂/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run.     

New evidences of hydrothermal fluids circulation at the Devonian Kess Kess mounds,Hamar Laghdad (eastern Anti‐Atlas,Morocco)

New evidences based on a combination of field and laboratory investigations reinforce the hypotheses that the circulation of warm fluids has remarkably contributed to the origin and development of the Devonian Kess Kess mounds of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge (eastern Anti‐Atlas, Morocco). The limestones of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge were deposited above a structural high generated by calc‐alkaline volcanic activity that has probably fuelled the circulation of warm fluids throughout the overlying carbonate units. The geological and palaeontological attributes described throughout the succession of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge (from the Lochkovian to Frasnian intervals) are interpreted as the result of hydrothermal processes related to a volcanic system. In particular, these attributes seem consistent with a chemo‐physical environment fuelled by the circulation of warm and late magmatic fluids. These attributes include a very low oxygen stable isotope signature (δ¹⁸O ~ −10‰) for carbonates. Evidences for a late magmatic fluid circulation consist of volcanic glass and pyroclasts replacement with hydrothermal minerals such as quartz, anatase and clinochlore. Fluids circulating through veins and pores into sediments, and venting to the seafloor, probably induced the formation of cavities where monospecific trilobite communities were detected. The partially silicified trilobite remains are associated with traces of goethite. This iron‐bearing oxide mineral is also present in the upper part of the Hamar Laghdad Ridge. All these attributes are here interpreted as possible evidences for a low‐temperature hydrothermal venting system active during the Lochkovian–Frasnian time span. This study combines an updated revision with new petrographic, geological and geochemical results aimed at providing an overall framework on the origin and early diagenesis of the Devonian succession of Hamar Laghdad. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metal distribution in sediment cores from São Paulo State Coast, Brazil

Ten sediment core samples with lengths ranging from 35 to 100 cm were collected in the Baixada Santista region and analyzed to determine As, Br, Co, Cr, Cs, Fe, Rb, Sb, Ta, Th, U, Zn and rare earths (Sc, Ce, Eu, La, Lu, Nd, Sm, Tb and Yb) level concentrations using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The studied region is located in the southeastern coast of São Paulo State and is comprised of a densely urbanized area, the largest industrial complex of the country, with a predominance of petrochemical and fertilizer plants. It is also home to Brazil’s most important and busiest port. The conclusions found that the As, La, Sm, Ne, Ce, Eu, Hf, Ta, Th, and U elements have a high background level in the region and that Fe and Zn were the main indicators of anthropogenic contribution in the sediments.     

Arsenic in sediments, groundwater, and streamwater of a glauconitic Coastal Plain terrain, New Jersey, USA—Chemical “fingerprints” for geogenic and anthropogenic sources

Glauconite-bearing deposits are found worldwide, but As levels have been determined for relatively few. The As content of glauconites in sediments of the Inner Coastal Plain of New Jersey can exceed 100 mg/kg, and total As concentrations (up to 5.95 μg/L) found historically and recently in streamwaters exceed the State standard. In a major watershed of the Inner Coastal Plain, chemical “fingerprints” were developed for streambed sediments and groundwater to identify contributions of As to the watershed from geologic and anthropogenic sources. The fingerprint for streambed sediments, which included Be, Cr, Fe and V, indicated that As was predominantly of geologic origin. High concentrations of dissolved organic C, nutrients (and Cl⁻) in shallow groundwater indicated anthropogenic inputs that provided an environment where microbial activity released As from minerals to groundwater discharging to the stream. Particulates in streamwater during high flow constituted most of the As load; the chemical patterns for these particulates resembled the geologic fingerprint of the streambed sediments. The As/Cr ratio of these suspended particles likely indicates they derived not only from runoff, but from groundwater inputs, because As contributed by groundwater is sequestered on streambed sediments. Agricultural inputs of As were not clearly identified, although chemical characteristics of some sediments indicated vehicle-related inputs of metals. Sediment sampling during dry and wet years showed that, under differing hydrologic conditions, local anthropogenic fingerprints could be obscured but the geologic fingerprint, indicating glauconitic sediments as an As source, was robust.