An interactive multi-objective optimization framework for groundwater inverse modeling

The groundwater inverse problem of estimating heterogeneous groundwater model parameters (hydraulic conductivity in this case) given measurements of aquifer response (such as hydraulic heads) is known to be an ill-posed problem, with multiple parameter values giving similar fits to the aquifer response measurements. This problem is further exacerbated due to the lack of extensive data, typical of most real-world problems. In such cases, it is desirable to incorporate expert knowledge in the estimation process to generate more reasonable estimates. This work presents a novel interactive framework, called the ‘Interactive Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm’ (IMOGA), to solve the groundwater inverse problem considering different sources of quantitative data as well as qualitative expert knowledge about the site. The IMOGA is unique in that it looks at groundwater model calibration as a multi-objective problem consisting of quantitative objectives – calibration error and regularization – and a ‘qualitative’ objective based on the preference of the geological expert for different spatial characteristics of the conductivity field. All these objectives are then included within a multi-objective genetic algorithm to find multiple solutions that represent the best combination of all quantitative and qualitative objectives. A hypothetical aquifer case-study (based on the test case presented by Freyberg [Freyberg DL. An exercise in ground-water model calibration and prediction. Ground Water 1988;26(3)], for which the ‘true’ parameter values are known, is used as a test case to demonstrate the applicability of this method. It is shown that using automated calibration techniques without using expert interaction leads to parameter values that are not consistent with site-knowledge. Adding expert interaction is shown to not only improve the plausibility of the estimated conductivity fields but also the predictive accuracy of the calibrated model.     

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe’s transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

Air circulation due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect can influence the dispersion of air pollutants in a metropolis. This study focusses on the influence of the UHI effect on particulate matter (PM; including PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10) between May and September 2010–2012 in the Taipei basin. Meteorological and PM data were obtained from the sites, owned by the governmental authorities. The analysis was carried out using t test, relative indices (RIs), Pearson product–moment correlation and stepwise regression. The results show that the RI values for PM were the highest at moderate UHI intensity (MUI; 2 °C ≤ UHI < 4 °C) rather than at strong UHI intensity (SUI; 4 °C ≤ UHI) during the peak time for anthropogenic emissions (20:00 LST). Neither the accumulation of PM nor the surface convergence occurred in the hot centre, as shown by the case study. At MUI, more than 89 % of the synoptic weather patterns showed that the weather was clear and hot or that the atmosphere was stable. The variation in PM was associated with horizontal and vertical air dispersion. Poor horizontal air dispersion, with subsidence, caused an increase in PM at MUI. However, the updraft motion diluted the PM at SUI. The stepwise regression models show that the cloud index and surface air pressure determined the variation in PM_2.5–10, while cloud index, wind speed and mixing height influenced the variation in PM_2.5. In conclusion, a direct relationship between UHI effect and PM was not obvious.     

Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia

A progress report on the mapping effort for construction of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Slovenia for 475-year return period for rock and firm soil is presented. The methodology is similar to that recently applied in Central and Eastern United States. It is based on historical seismicity spatially smoothed to different length scales. The procedure is described by Frankel (1995). He uses the characteristic earthquake recurrence relationship and in his firt version four different seismicity models. We also use four seismicity models. But instead of characteristic earthquake recurrence, we use the doubly truncated exponential magnitude-frequency relationship; no evidence of characteristic earthquakes in Slovenia has been found yet. Three of our models are similar to Frankel's first three models. Model 1 uses spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 3.7 and above events since 1880. Model 2 deals with spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 5.0 abd above events since 1690. Model 3 smoothes the observed activity over the entire region; it represents a uniform seismicity zone. Frankel skipped this model in his latest version (Frankel et al. 1996). In model 4, we introduce a new approach of calculating seismic activity rate taking into account released seismic energy. The ground motion attenuation model of Pugliese and Sabetta (1989) is used for all models. PGA maps for models 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been calculated, and a weighted mean map derived from them. A map of model 1 has been compared with the corresponding source zone map; the two maps do not differ significantly. A worst-case map derived from all four models has also been produced.     

Assessing the effects of post‐pine beetle forest litter on snow albedo

The effect of forest litter on snow surface albedo has been subject to limited study, mainly in the hardwood‐dominated forests of the northeastern United States. Given the recent pine beetle infestation in Western North America and associated increases in litter production, this study examines the effects of forest litter on snow surface albedo in the coniferous forests of south‐central British Columbia. Measured changes in canopy transmittance provide an indication of canopy loss or total litterfall over the winter of 2007–2008. Relationships between percent litter cover, an index of albedo, snow depth, and snow ablation during the 2008 melt season are compared between a mature, young, and clearcut coniferous stand. Results indicate a strong feedback effect between canopy loss and subsequent enhanced shortwave transmittance, and litter accumulation on the snow surface from that canopy loss. However, this relationship is confounded by other variables concurrently affecting albedo. While results suggest that a relatively small percent litter cover can have a significant effect on albedo and ablation, further research is underway to extract the litter signal from that of other factors affecting albedo, particularly snow depth. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remotely sensed rivers in the Anthropocene: state of the art and prospects

The rivers of the world are undergoing accelerated change in the Anthropocene, and need to be managed at much broader spatial and temporal scales than before. Fluvial remote sensing now offers a technical and methodological framework that can be deployed to monitor the processes at work and to assess the trajectories of rivers in the Anthropocene. In this paper, we review research investigating past, present and future fluvial corridor conditions and processes using remote sensing and we consider emerging challenges facing fluvial and riparian research. We introduce a suite of remote sensing methods designed to diagnose river changes at reach to regional scales. We then focus on identification of channel patterns and acting processes from satellite, airborne or ground acquisitions. These techniques range from grain scales to landform scales, and from real time scales to inter-annual scales. We discuss how remote sensing data can now be coupled to catchment scale models that simulate sediment transfer within connected river networks. We also consider future opportunities in terms of datasets and other resources which are likely to impact river management and monitoring at the global scale. We conclude with a summary of challenges and prospects for remotely sensed rivers in the Anthropocene. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stratigraphic network across the Subtropical Front in the central South Atlantic: Multi-parameter correlation of magnetic susceptibility, density, X-ray fluorescence and δO records

Computer aided multi-parameter signal correlation is used to develop a common high-precision age model for eight gravity cores from the subtropical and subantarctic South Atlantic. Since correlations between all pairs of multi-parameter sequences are used, and correlation errors between core pairs (A, B) and (B, C) are controlled by comparison with (A, C), the resulting age model is called a stratigraphic network. Precise inter-core correlation is achieved using high-resolution records of magnetic susceptibility κ, wet bulk density ρ and X-ray fluorescence scans of elemental composition. Additional δ¹⁸O records are available for two cores. The data indicate nearly undisturbed sediment series and the absence of significant hiatuses or turbidites. After establishing a high-precision common depth scale by synchronously correlating four densely measured parameters (Fe, Ca, κ, ρ), the final age model is obtained by simultaneously fitting the aligned δ¹⁸O and κ records of the stratigraphic network to orbitally tuned oxygen isotope [J. Imbrie, J. D. Hays, D. G. Martinson, A. McIntyre, A. C. Mix, J. J. Morley, N. G. Pisias, W. L. Prell, N. J. Shackleton, The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: support from a revised chronology of the marine δ¹⁸O record, in: A. Berger, J. Imbrie, J. Hays, G. Kukla, B. Saltzman (Eds.), Milankovitch and Climate: Understanding the Response to Orbital Forcing, Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, 1984, pp. 269-305; D. Martinson, N. Pisias, J. Hays, J. Imbrie, T. C. Moore Jr., N. Shackleton, Age dating and the orbital theory of the Ice Ages: development of a high-resolution 0 to 300.000-Year chronostratigraphy, Quat. Res. 27 (1987) 1-29.] or susceptibility stacks [T. von Dobeneck, F.Schmieder, Using rock magnetic proxy records for orbital tuning and extended time series analyses into the super-and sub-Milankovitch Bands, in: G. Fischer, G. Wefer (Eds.), Use of proxies in paleoceanography: Examples from the South Atlantic, Springer-Verlag, Berlin (1999), pp. 601-633.]. Besides the detection and elimination of errors in single records, the stratigraphic network approach allows to check the intrinsic consistency of the final result by comparing it to the outcome of more restricted alignment procedures. The final South Atlantic stratigraphic network covers the last 400 kyr south and the last 1200 kyr north of the Subtropical Front (STF) and provides a highly precise age model across the STF representing extremely different sedimentary regimes. This allows to detect temporal shifts of the STF by mapping δMn / Fe. It turns out that the apparent STF movements by about 200 km are not directly related to marine oxygen isotope stages.     

Organic carbon deliveries and their flow related dynamics in the Fitzroy estuary

The Fitzroy estuary (Queensland, Australia) receives large, but highly episodic, river flows from a catchment (144,000 km(2)) which has undergone major land clearing. Large quantities of suspended sediments, and particulate and dissolved organic carbon are delivered. At peak flows, delta(13)C (-21.7+/-0.8 per thousand) and C/N (14.8+/-1.3) of the suspended solids indicate that the particulate organic material entering the estuary is principally soil organic carbon. At the lower beginning flows the particulate organic matter comes from in-stream producers (delta(13)C=-26 per thousand). The DOC load is about 10 times the POC load. Using the inverse method, budgets for POC and DOC were constructed for high and low flows. Under high flows, only a small portion of the POC and DOC load is lost in the estuary. Under dry season (low flow) conditions the estuary is a sink for DOC, but remains a source of POC to the coastal waters.