Forecasting aftershock activity: 1. Adaptive estimates based on the Omori and Gutenberg–Richter laws

The method for forecasting the intensity of the aftershock processes after strong earthquakes in different magnitude intervals is considered. The method is based on the joint use of the time model of the aftershock process and the Gutenberg–Richter law. The time model serves for estimating the intensity of the aftershock flow with a magnitude larger than or equal to the magnitude of completeness. The Gutenberg–Richter law is used for magnitude scaling. The suggested approach implements successive refinement of the parameters of both components of the method, which is the main novelty distinguishing it from the previous ones. This approach, to a significant extent, takes into account the variations in the parameters of the frequency–magnitude distribution, which often show themselves by the decreasing fraction of stronger aftershocks with time. Testing the method on eight aftershock sequences in the regions with different patterns of seismicity demonstrates the high probability of successful forecasts. The suggested technique can be employed in seismological monitoring centers for forecasting the aftershock activity of a strong earthquake based on the results of operational processing.     

The arrow of time at the early stages of biosphere evolution. Determinism and pluralism

The modern theory of molecular processes provides a natural explanation for some clue observed features of biosphere formation during the early stages of the appearance of the molecular world. It was shown that a mere increase in the complexity of molecular objects is accompanied by the first manifestations of the fundamental properties that become subsequently predominant in much more complex objects: viruses, cells, bacteria, etc.     

On the model of the solar wind-interstellar medium interaction with two shock waves

The model of the solar wind interaction with interstellar medium suggested by Baranovet al. (1970) is developed. In this model (TSM) the presence of two shock waves is assumed, through which the solar wind and interstellar gas pass, the latter moving relative to the Sun at supersonic speed (20 km s^–1).The distance between shocks was considered earlier (Baranovet al., 1970; Baranov and Krasnobaev, 1971) to be small compared with their distance from the Sun, due to the hypersonic character of the flow. The structure of the subsonic flow portion may not be taken into account.In the present paper the distribution of the gas parameters in the region between shocks is calculated which, in particular, allows us to estimate the possibility of its experimental detection, observing radio-scintillation on interstellar irregularities (Baranovet al., 1975).The possible influence on the model of galactic hydrogen neutral atoms penetrating into interplanetary medium is estimated.     

Capture of stars by rotating homogeneous spherical clusters

Changes of the orbit of a star passing through a homogeneous spherical cluster have been estimated. Before entering the cluster the star is supposed to move in a Keplerian parabolic orbit. When passing through the cluster the star is subject both to the attraction of the smoothed-out distribution of matter in the cluster and to dynamical friction. Due to dynamical friction the energy of the star becomes negative which leads to the elliptic-type motion of the star after leaving the cluster and to capturing the star by the cluster. The formulae for the changes of the star orbit in the cluster are given. Numerical estimation shows that open clusters transform star orbits more noticeably than do globular clusters.     

Equilibrium and stability of interstellar medium in its own gravitational field

The statistical equilibrium of a heterogeneous self-gravitating layer of the interstellar medium is examined. Electrostatic fields and the different reactions to them by electrons and the ions of different elements are taken into account. In general, different, uncoupled temperatures are specified for the individual components of the interstellar medium. It is emphasized that some details of the structure of an equilibrium layer cannot be interpreted in terms of gravitation alone, despite the weakness of the electrostatic fields. A mixture of H II, He II, and electrons is examined as an important example. The asymptotic behavior of the total density and of the ratio of partial densities over large distances is found. A method for finding (in quadrature) these characteristics at any point of the medium is described. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 453–462 (August 2007).     

Periodic orbits of stars in axisymmetrical stellar systems

Periodic orbits of stars in axisymmetrical nearly spherical stellar systems have been investigated. Generating orbits have been found among periodic ones relating to the spherically-symmetrical field. The linear approximation appears to be insufficient for constructing periodic trajectories. Possible variants of the generating periodic solutions have been found, which give rise to disturbed periodic orbits in the second approximation.

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Density distribution of solar wind protons and “loaded” ions in the shock layer ahead of a cometary ionosphere

We propose a simple method that allows the density fields of solar wind protons and heavy ions of cometary origin (“loaded” ions) in the solar wind-cometary ionosphere interaction region to be separated from the general density field calculated within the framework of a single-fluid model. The method is based on the assumption that the velocities of both components are identical. We analyze the density fields in the solar wind obtained in this way before and after the passage of the bow shock ahead of the cometary ionosphere and make a comparison with the distributions measured with various instruments onboard the Giotto spacecraft when it flew past Comet Halley and calculated on the basis of more complex multi-fluid models.     

Photospheric Magnetic Field of the Sun: Two Patterns of the Longitudinal Distribution

Longitudinal distributions of the photospheric magnetic field studied on the basis of National Solar Observatory (Kitt Peak) data (1976 – 2003) displayed two opposite patterns during different parts of the 11-year solar cycle. Helio-longitudinal distributions differed for the ascending phase and the maximum of the solar cycle on the one hand and for the descending phase and the minimum on the other, depicting maxima around two diametrically opposite Carrington longitudes (180° and 0°/360°). Thus the maximum of the distribution shifted its position by 180° with the transition from one characteristic period to the other. Two characteristic periods correspond to different situations occurring in the 22-year magnetic cycle of the Sun, in the course of which both global magnetic field and the magnetic field of the leading sunspot in a group change their sign. During the ascending phase and the maximum (active longitude 180°) polarities of the global magnetic field and those of the leading sunspots coincide, whereas for the descending phase and the minimum (active longitude 0°/360°) the polarities are opposite. Thus the observed change of active longitudes may be connected with the polarity changes of Sun’s magnetic field in the course of 22-year magnetic cycle.     

Influence of the magnetic field on the density distribution of solar wind protons and cometary ions in the shock layer ahead of cometary ionospheres

The “mass loading” of the solar wind by cometary ions produced by the photoionization of neutral molecules outflowing from the cometary nucleus plays a major role in the interaction of the solar wind with cometary atmospheres. In particular, this process leads to a decrease in the solar wind velocity with a transition from supersonic velocities to subsonic ones through the bow shock. The so-called single-fluid approximation, in which the interacting plasma flows are considered as a single fluid, is commonly used in modeling such an interaction. However, it is occasionally necessary to know the distribution of parameters for the components of the interacting plasma flows. For example, when the flow of the cometary dust component in the interplanetary magnetic field is considered, the dust particle charge, which depends significantly on the composition of the surrounding plasma, needs to be known. In this paper, within the framework of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar wind flow around cometary ionospheres, we have managed to separately obtain the density distributions of solar wind protons and cometary ions between the bow shock and the cometary ionopause (in the shock layer). The influence of the interplanetary magnetic field on the position of the point of intersection between the densities with the formation of a region near the ionopause where the proton density is essentially negligible compared to the density of cometary ions is investigated. Such a region was experimentally detected by the Vega-2 spacecraft when investigating Comet Halley in March 1986. The results of the model considered below are compared with some experimental data obtained by the Giotto spacecraft under the conditions of flow around Comets Halley and Grigg–Skjellerup in 1986 and 1992, respectively. Unfortunately, our results of calculations on Comet Churyumov–Gerasimenko are only predictive in character, because the trajectory of the Rosetta spacecraft, which manoeuvred near its surface for several months, is complex.