A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality

While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modelling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid‐based spatially distributed model, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model‐Water Quality (DHSVM‐WQ), is an outgrowth of DHSVM that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high‐spatial and high‐temporal resolution. DHSVM‐WQ simulates surface run‐off quality and in‐stream processes that control the transport of non‐point source pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM‐WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here, we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from non‐point sources (run‐off), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely because of substantially increased streamflow and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 °C), TSS load (up to 182%) and TP load (up to 74%). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological behaviour and modelling of a volcanic tropical cultivated catchment

The hydrological behaviour of the cultivated Féfé catchment (17·8 ha) on the tropical volcanic island of Guadeloupe was studied to identify flow paths, to quantify water fluxes, and finally, to build a lumped model to simulate discharge and piezometer levels. The approach combined two steps, an experimental step and a modelling step, which covered two time scales, the annual and the storm event scale. The hydrological measurements were conducted over 2 years. The Féfé catchment is characterized by heavy rainfall (4229 mm year^?1) on permeable Andosols; the results showed that underground flow paths involved two overlapping aquifers, and that the annual water balance in 2003 was shared among outflows of the deep aquifer (42%), evapotranspiration (31%), and streamflow (27%). On the event scale, the surface runoff coefficient ranges between 6·2% and 24·4% depending on antecedent dry or wet moisture conditions. Hortonian overland flow predominated over subsurface and saturation overland flow processes. Recharge of the shallow aquifer is mainly governed by a constant infiltration capacity of the Andosols with depth in the vadose zone. Outflows of this shallow aquifer were the baseflow of the main stream and the recharge of the deep aquifer. Volcanic deposits at Féfé promoted the underground flow path, and cultivated areas seemed to explain the high stormflow values relative to other tropical small catchments under rain forest. A conceptual lumped model integrating runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and fluctuations of the two overlapping aquifers was developed. The model has six parameters and was calibrated and validated on the hydrograph at the outlet and on the two piezometers of the shallow and the deep aquifers. The results show fair to good agreement between measured and simulated variables, and consequently, the model was consistent with the main hydrological processes observed from experimental results in wet conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Woodcutting and territorial claims in Mali

In Mali, amidst moves toward political decentralization and the transfer of authority to manage natural resources, woodcutting has become an important tool for the assertion of territorial claims by villagers. The decentralization process has itself led to a profound political shake-up between the central state seeking to maintain land ownership and the de facto management of land by customary village authorities. But it is, however, primarily the devolution of forest resource management to village-led organizations that has prompted the cross-scale legitimization and assertion of various territorial claims from 1995 onwards. Based on two in-depth case studies on the outskirts of Bamako, Mali, the authors illustrate how new practices revolving around woodcutting and charcoal-making have been instrumental in intra- and inter-village disputes. At the village level, this transfer tends to exacerbate tenure claims over land and trees with the reactivation of autochthony-related arguments and thus the risk of excluding the most vulnerable social groups which are typically involved in woodcutting. At the inter-village level, this gives villages the opportunity to claim and demarcate boundaries by cutting, painting signs on some trees, or more radically tree felling being carried out solely to demonstrate appropriation. At the municipal level, this transfer leads to political and social adjustments between customary and decentralized authorities, each struggling to build their legitimacy in natural resource management.     

Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?

Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 °C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers’ commitment to meet the 2 °C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that the economy faces climate damages with a threshold at 2 °C. We run the model for a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of “worldviews” in the climate debate. For a significant share of scenarios we observe that it is considered optimal to exceed the threshold. Among those “non-compliers” we discriminate ”involuntary non-compliers” who cannot avoid the exceedance due to physical constraint from ”deliberate compliers” for whom the exceedance results from a deliberate costs-benefit analysis. A second result is that the later mitigation efforts begin, the more difficult it becomes to prevent the exceedance. In particular, the number of ”deliberate non-compliers” dramatically increases if mitigation efforts do not start by 2020, and the influx of involuntary non-compliers become overwhelming f efforts are delayed to 2040. In light of these results we argue that the window of opportunity for reaching the 2 °C objective with a credible chance of success is rapidly closing during the present decade. Further delay in finding a climate agreement critically undermines the credibility of the objective.     

Numerical prediction of gas migration properties in Callovo‐Oxfordian (COx) argillite using morpho‐mathematical operations

The feasibility study of long‐term radioactive waste storage in low‐permeable rocks has been performed by considering various damage and failure scenarios. This study aims at the numerical investigation of gas (mainly produced by corrosion of metallic parts) migration properties through the low‐permeable formation of Callovo‐Oxfordian argillite. Traditional methods, based on macroscopic approaches or homogeneous transport properties, are inappropriate to analyze this issue at the mesoscopic/microscopic scale. In this study, realistic porous space morphologies are constructed through union of excursions of random fields considering different experimental pore size distributions. Afterwards, purely geometric analysis of pore space is conducted by morpho‐mathematical operations for the purpose of the extraction of preferential gas transport pathways and the prediction of the gas entry pressure, the gas breakthrough pressure, and the following imbibition process.     

The influence of ground ice distribution on geomorphic dynamics since the Little Ice Age in proglacial areas of two cirque glacier systems

Holocene glaciers have contributed to an abundance of unstable sediments in mountainous environments. In permafrost environments, these sediments can contain ground ice and are subject to rapid geomorphic activity and evolution under condition of a warming climate. To understand the influence of ground ice distribution on this activity since the Little Ice Age (LIA), we have investigated the Pierre Ronde and Rognes proglacial areas, two cirque glacier systems located in the periglacial belt of the Mont Blanc massif. For the first time, electrical resistivity tomography, temperature data loggers and differential global positioning systems (dGPS) are combined with historical documents and glaciological data analysis to produce a complete study of evolution in time and space of these small landsystems since the LIA. This approach allows to explain spatial heterogeneity of current internal structure and dynamics. The studied sites are a complex assemblage of debris‐covered glacier, ice‐rich frozen debris and unfrozen debris. Ground ice distribution is related to former glacier thermal regime, isolating effect of debris cover, water supply to specific zones, and topography. In relation with this internal structure, present dynamics are dominated by rapid ice melt in the debris‐covered upper slopes, slow creep processes in marginal glacigenic rock glaciers, and weak, superficial reworking in deglaciated moraines. Since the LIA, geomorphic activity is mainly spatially restricted within the proglacial areas. Sediment exportation has occurred in a limited part of the former Rognes Glacier and through water pocket outburst flood and debris flows in Pierre Ronde. Both sites contributed little sediment supply to the downslope geomorphic system, rather by episodic events than by constant supply. In that way, during Holocene and even in a paraglacial context as the recent deglaciation, proglacial areas of cirque glaciers act mostly as sediment sinks, when active geomorphic processes are unable to evacuate sediment downslope, especially because of the slope angle weakness. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative Integration of High-Resolution Hydrogeophysical Data: A Novel Approach to Monte-Carlo-Type Conditional Stochastic Simulations and Implications for Hydrological Predictions

Geophysical techniques can help to bridge the inherent gap that exists with regard to spatial resolution and coverage for classical hydrological methods. This has led to the emergence of a new and rapidly growing research domain generally referred to as hydrogeophysics. Given the differing sensitivities of various geophysical techniques to hydrologically relevant parameters, their inherent trade-off between resolution and range, as well as the notoriously site-specific nature of petrophysical parameter relations, the fundamental usefulness of multi-method surveys for reducing uncertainties in data analysis and interpretation is widely accepted. A major challenge arising from such endeavors is the quantitative Integration of the resulting vast and diverse database into a unified model of the probed subsurface region that is consistent with all available measurements. To this end, we present a novel approach toward hydrogeophysical data integration based on a Monte-Carlo-type conditional stochastic simulation method that we consider to be particularly suitable for high-resolution local-scale studies. Monte Carlo techniques are flexible and versatile, allowing for accounting for a wide variety of data and constraints of differing resolution and hardness, and thus have the potential of providing, in a geostatistical sense, realistic models of the pertinent target parameter distributions. Compared to more conventional approaches, such as co-kriging or cluster analysis, our approach provides significant advancements in the way that larger-scale structural information contained in the hydrogeophysical data can be accounted for. After outlining the methodological background of our algorithm, we present the results of its application to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the detailed local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on pertinent synthetic data and then applied to a field dataset collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. Finally, we compare the performance of our data integration approach to that of more conventional methods with regard to the prediction of flow and transport phenomena in highly heterogeneous media and discuss the Implications arising.     

Quantifying peakflow attenuation/amplification in a karst river using the diffusive wave model with lateral flow

The aim of this paper is to quantify peakflow attenuation and/or amplification in a river, investigating lateral flow from the intermediate catchment during floods. This is a challenge for the study of the hydrological response of permeable/intermittent streams, and our contribution refers to a modelling framework based on the inverse problem for the diffusive wave model applied in a karst catchment. Knowing the upstream and downstream hydrographs on a reach between two stations, we can model the lateral one, given information on the hydrological processes involved in the intermediate catchment. The model is applied to 33 flood events in the karst reach of the Iton River in French Normandy where peakflow attenuation is observed. The monitored zone consists of a succession of losing and gaining reaches controlled by strong surface‐water/groundwater (SW/GW) interactions. Our results show that despite a high baseflow increase in the reach, peakflow is attenuated. Model application shows that the intensity of lateral outflow for the flood component is linked to upstream discharge. A combination of river loss and overbank flow for highest floods is proposed for explaining the relationships. Our approach differentiates the role of outflow (river loss and overbank flow) and that of wave diffusion on peakflow attenuation. Based on several sets of model parameterization, diffusion is the main attenuation process for most cases, despite high river losses of up to several m³/s (half of peakflow for some parameterization strategies). Finally, this framework gives new insight into the SW/GW interactions during floods in karst basins, and more globally in basins characterized by disconnected river‐aquifer systems.     

Inversion of multiple intersecting high-resolution crosshole GPR profiles for hydrological characterization at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site

The integration of geophysical data into the subsurface characterization problem has been shown in many cases to significantly improve hydrological knowledge by providing information at spatial scales and locations that is unattainable using conventional hydrological measurement techniques. In particular, crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) tomography has shown much promise in hydrology because of its ability to provide highly detailed images of subsurface radar wave velocity, which is strongly linked to soil water content. Here, we develop and demonstrate a procedure for inverting together multiple crosshole GPR data sets in order to characterize the spatial distribution of radar wave velocity below the water table at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site (BHRS) near Boise, Idaho, USA. Specifically, we jointly invert 31 intersecting crosshole GPR profiles to obtain a highly resolved and consistent radar velocity model along the various profile directions. The model is found to be strongly correlated with complementary neutron porosity-log data and is further corroborated by larger-scale structural information at the BHRS. This work is an important prerequisite to using crosshole GPR data together with existing hydrological measurements for improved groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling.     

Olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia craters on (4) Vesta from Dawn FC

We present an analysis of olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia craters using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) color data. Our results confirm the existence of olivine‐rich materials at these localities as described by Ammannito et al. ( 2013a ) using Visual Infrared Spectrometer (VIR) data. Analyzing laboratory spectra of various howardite–eucrite–diogenite meteorites, high‐Ca pyroxenes, olivines, and olivine‐orthopyroxene mixtures, we derive three FC spectral band parameters that are indicators of olivine‐rich materials. Combining the three band parameters allows us, for the first time, to reliably identify sites showing modal olivine contents >40%. The olivine‐rich exposures at Bellicia and Arruntia are mapped using higher spatial resolution FC data. The exposures are located on the slopes of outer/inner crater walls, on the floor of Arruntia, in the ejecta, as well as in nearby fresh small impact craters. The spatial extent of the exposures ranges from a few hundred meters to few kilometers. The olivine‐rich exposures are in accordance with both the magma ocean and the serial magmatism model (e.g., Righter and Drake 1997 ; Yamaguchi et al. 1997 ). However, it remains unsolved why the olivine‐rich materials are mainly concentrated in the northern hemisphere (approximately 36–42°N, 46–74°E) and are almost absent in the Rheasilvia basin.