近20a来巢湖流域生态服务价值空间分异机制的地理探测

生态系统服务功能是生态系统和生态过程形成和维持的自然环境条件及作用。基于1995—2017年遥感分类数据,对研究区按3 km×3 km幅度网格化2019个样方,利用空间统计和缓冲区等方法进行巢湖流域生态服务价值时空演变特征分析,应用地理探测器工具揭示生态服务价值空间分异的主导因子及因子交互作用机制,并提出生态服务价值空间优化策略。结果表明：① 巢湖流域生态服务价值量由1995年的303.17亿元分别下降为2005年300.95亿元和2017年287.70亿元,近20a来减少约5.11%,年均下降率0.23%,其中合肥市区、巢湖南部和东部地区降速明显;② 生态服务价值等级空间转移分析表明,巢湖流域低级别生态服务价值区域在扩展,中等及高级别区域在缩小。以巢湖为核心的缓冲区分析表明,20a来缓冲区核心环带内生态服务价值量下降18.55%,巢湖流域水环境保护核心区的生态系统功能变化值得关注;③ 地理探测分析表明,人为影响综合指数是生态服务价值空间分异的主导因子;地形、气象因素是重要影响因子;人为影响指数因子、自然因子及社会经济因子的交互协同增强效应共同影响了流域生态服务价值在空间上的分异效果。研究结果在一定程度上可为巢湖流域生态系统调控与优化提供理论依据。     

近15a陕西省植被时空变化与影响因素分析

利用2000—2014年MODIS/NDVI时间序列数据,采用栅格像元趋势分析、稳定性评价的方法,研究了陕西省近15 a植被的时空变化特征和规律;利用Hurst指数对陕西省植被未来变化趋势进行了预测;并利用相关性分析法分析了NDVI与年均温度和降雨量的关系。结果表明,2000年、2015年陕西省NDVI均值分别为0.4273、0.4942, 15 a来增加了0.067,增长了16.0%,其中陕北地区NDVI增加明显,关中部分地区出现负增长,陕南地区NDVI总体依旧维持在较高水平。陕西省植被变化趋势具有明显的空间差异性,全省植被未变化的占52.0 %,改善部分占44.27 %,退化部分占3.73%,说明15 a间陕西省植被覆盖改善面积大于退化面积,植被状况有所改善;其中陕北地区植被呈明显改善区域面积较大,关中地区植被覆盖面积有所减少,陕南地区植被变化幅度较小。陕西省植被稳定区域占50%以上（0 0.2),说明15a间陕西省植被较为稳定,变化程度不大;其中陕西省植被最稳定地区主要集中在陕南、延安南部,榆林部分、西安、渭南少部地区变化幅度较大。Hurst指数分析表明陕西省44.54%面积的植被未来有可能面临退化,主要分布在陕北和关中地区的北部,植被未来有可能退化也有可能改善的面积占49.78%,主要分布在延安和陕南地区。陕西省近15 a气温和降水量总体呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为0.48 ℃·(10 a)-1和69.5 mm ( a)-1;相关性分析结果表明,年均降雨量是影响NDVI的主要气象因子,同时陕西省植被变化也受到了退耕还林还草、防沙治沙、生态政治等人为因素的影响。     

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.     

面向中国洪涝灾害应急监测的无人机空港布局

当前洪涝灾害对社会的经济发展和人民生命财产安全构成严重威胁。无人机机动、灵活,安全性高,可迅捷甚至实时获取灾区影像,对灾情的快速评估和应急救援决策意义重大。遥感无人机在洪涝灾害救援中能够发挥的重要作用已得到广泛共识,但是由于灾害的突发性,缺乏就近部署的资源制约了无人机遥感观测和救援作用的发挥。针对突发灾害,在区域和全国范围内建立起一定的无人机遥感应急体系成为国家面向未来正在考虑的选项。基于此,本研究提出了基于中国科学院的野外台站构建全国无人机遥感观测网的设想。本研究以中国防范洪涝灾害等级分布数据、行政区划数据、中国科学院野外台站分布数据和当前无人机性能数据库为数据源;以行政区划离散并提取的中心点作为需求点,台站作为设施点,不同洪涝等级区域内需要无人机进行应急观测的重要程度作为权重,利用最大覆盖选址模型进行空港选址布局;利用成本-效益曲线确定台站的最佳数量,最终从268个台站中选取出81个作为支撑全国洪涝灾害无人机遥感观测网络的无人机空港。无人机空港布局结果在理论上能够实现对中国绝大数突发洪涝灾害在2 h内初步完成洪涝观测,这对于构建中国空天地一体化的洪涝灾害监测体系具有重要意义。同时,本研究中的方法和成果对于进一步构建行业和综合性的全国无人机遥感观测网也具有一定借鉴和参照意义。     

提高对流层天顶总延迟解算精度的新方法探讨

对流层天顶总延迟的解算精度,直接影响长基线解算的精度和大气水汽含量的计算精度。文中提出克利金内插法解算天顶总延迟的新方法,并利用南极长城站和周边IGS跟踪站的GPS数据,通过高精度解算软件GAMIT/GLOBK,解算出长城站上空的对流层天顶总延迟,将其与利用内插方法解算的天顶总延迟进行了对比分析,得出:利用该内插方法获取的南极长城站在夏季的天顶总延迟的均方差可达0.2mm,这对今后GPS高精度定位和GPS气象学应用来说,具有重要意义。     

面向应用的CBERS-02星高分辨率相机成像数值模拟技术框架

技术框架研究的目标是准确仿真卫星高分辨率相机成像过程中辐射和几何质量的下降情况,从应用方的角度建立评价高分辨率卫星相机在国土资源领域的应用潜力和技术框架,并以CBERS-02B星HR相机在轨成像模拟为例进行了原理验证,同时对今后以国土资源应用评价为目标的高分辨率相机在轨成像模拟改进方案提出了建议。     

四川省上市公司可持续发展财务问题分析

财务指标是企业盈利能力的反映。根据近几年的相关数据,通过对财务指标综合分析,探讨四川省上市公司的可持续发展状况。     

红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubripes)性别差异微卫星标记的筛选

采用以BSA为基础的微卫星标记技术对红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubripes)雌、雄群体进行性别差异标记筛选的研究。用雌、雄各30个个体构建雌、雄基因池,利用66对微卫星引物扫描雌、雄基因池。在雌、雄基因池中扩增出差异条带的引物有8对。用两个各包括30个雌、雄个体的群体对这8对引物进行两轮个体验证。结果表明,引物f383在两个雌、雄群体中扩增出的差异条带与性别都呈极显著相关性(r分别为0.710和0.673)(P0.01),f383是与红鳍东方鲀雄性呈正相关的微卫星标记。红鳍东方鲀性别差异微卫星标记的获得,为其性别相关基因的克隆和性别决定机制的研究提供理论基础。     

Mitigation of Ice-Induced Vibrations for Offshore Platforms Using Tuned Mass Damper

The problems of ice-induced vibration have been noticed and concerned since the 1960s, but it has not been well resolved. One reason is that the dynamic interaction between ice and structure is so complicated that practical ice force model has not been developed. The recent full-scale tests conducted on jacket platforms in the Bohai Sea presented that ice could cause intense vibrations which endanger the facilities on the deck and make discomfort for the crew. In this paper, the strategy of mitigation of ice-induced offshore structure vibration is discussed. Based on field observations and understanding of the interaction between ice and structure, the absorption mitigation method to suppress ice-induced vibration is presented. The numerical simulations were conducted for a simplified model of platform attached with a Tuned Mass Danlper （TMD） under ice force function and ice force time history. The simulation results show that TMD can fa- vorably reduce ice-induced vibrations, therefore, it can be considered to be an alternative approach to utilize. Finally, the application possibilities of utilizing TMDs on other miniature offshore structures in ice-covered areas of marginal oil fields are discussed.     

Ice-Induced Fatigue Analysis by Spectral Approach for Offshore Jacket Platforms with Ice-Breaking Cones

The spectral methods and ice-induced fatigue analysis are discussed based on Miner's linear cumulative fatigue hypothesis and S-N curve data.According to the long-term data of full-scale tests on the platforms in the Bohai Sea,the ice force spectrum of conical structures and the fatigue environmental model are established.Moreover,the finite element model of JZ20-2MSW platform,an example of ice-induced fatigue analysis,is built with ANSYS software.The mode analysis and dynamic analysis in frequency domain under all kinds of ice fatigue work conditions are carried on,and the fatigue life of the structure is estimated in detail.The methods in this paper can be helpful in ice-induced fatigue analysis of ice-resistant platforms.