模糊类比分析法在渔业数值预报中的应用研究

渔业数值预报除涉及水文、气象、饵料生物量、资源幼体等的资源环境因子外 ,还要考虑经济、社会等因素。本文在分析 1987～ 1993年历史资料的基础上 ,利用资料之间的类比性 ,提出渔情预报的模糊类比分析方法 ,将预报年份与历史记录之间的多指标综合类比排序 ,得出预报值。在东海北部鲐渔情预报中发现 ,与直接估算法比较 ,该方法具有所需资料少、预报迅速合理的优点 ,而且随着历史资料的扩充 ,自身能够不断学习更新。     

长江口区海水中溶解有机碳和颗粒有机碳的分布及变化的研究

长江每年有上千万吨有机物质注入河口邻近海域，影响着这一海域独特的生态环境。 本文根据1985年8月至1986年5月专业调查资料,论述了长江口邻近海域溶解有机碳(DOC)和颗粒有机碳(POC)的分布及变化，并从有机物质的变化推测三峡工程对河口海生态系的影响。     

长江口及邻近陆架区沉积物和间隙水中铁及其与细菌的关系探讨

本文通过对长江口及邻近陆架区12个站位的柱状沉积物、间隙水和细菌资料分析,指出了研究区沉积物和间隙水中铁的分布特征,并与细菌、地质资料对比研究、从生物地球化学角度对间隙水中铁的来源及其控制因素作了初步探讨。资料研究表明,沉积物中铁主要赋存于细粒沉积物中,腐植酸中铁由河口向陆架减少。间隙水中铁主要来自沉积物中高价铁,在弧菌科(Vibrionaceae)和假单孢菌属(Pseudomonas)细菌的媒介下,参加了沉积物中某些有机物的降解反应,接收了有机物的电子后被还原,其含量和分布主要受控于参加媒介作用的细菌。     

Some numerical experiments of the dynamics of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea

Some numerical experiments have been developed to explain dynamically the mechanism of the formation of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea. From the results of the numerical experiments with Coriolis parameter having positive and negative values respectively, it is found that the current pattern characterized by flowing into the Bohai Sea in the northern part of the Bohai Straits and flowing out of the Bohai Sea in the southern part of the Bohai Straits is controlled basically by the bottom topography with "the deepness on the northern side and shallowness on the southern side'in the Bohai Straits, and is not related to Coriolis parameter having positive and negative values. It also shows that the Huanghai Warm Current regarded as the inllow condition passing through the in-ports at the water boundary of the numerical experiments only influences the region near the water boundary and the eastern region of the Northern Huanghai Sea. In addition, the mechanism of the     

Variation analysis of precipitation during past 286 years in Beijing area,China, using non‐parametric test and wavelet analysis

Non‐parametric methods including Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and discrete wavelet transform analysis are applied in this paper to detect the trend and periodic trait of precipitation data series in Beijing area where the data set spans nearly 300 years from 1724 to 2009. First, the trend of precipitation variables is elaborated by the M–K test (Sequential M–K test). The results show that there is an increasing trend (the value of this trend is 1.98) at the 5%‐significance level and there are not turning points in the whole data series. Then, CWT and wavelet variance are used to check for significant periodic characteristics of data series. In the plots of wavelet transform coefficients and figure of wavelet variance, some periodic events affect the trend of the annual total precipitation series in Beijing area. 85‐year, 35‐year and 21‐year periodic events are found to be the main periodic series of long‐term precipitation data, and they are all statistically significant. Moreover, the results of non‐parametric M–K test are exhibited on seven different combinations of discrete wavelet components. D5 (32‐year periodicity) periodic component is the effective and significant component on data. It is coincident with the result (35‐year periodic event as one part of main periodicity) by using CWT analysis. Moreover, approximation mode shows potential trend of the whole data set because it is the residuals as all periodicities are removed from data series. Thus, the mode A + D5 is responsible for producing a real basic structure of the trend founded on the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the usefulness of remote sensing input data for spatially distributed hydrological modelling: case of the Tarim River basin in China

The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黑龙江省中东部地区二叠纪—早侏罗世洋陆演化过程及成矿动力学背景探讨

我国东北古生代—中生代洋陆构造演化存在较大争议。黑龙江省中东部地区二叠纪—早侏罗世岩浆活动强烈、矿床发育,为我们认识中国东北晚古生代至早中生代洋陆转换过程以及成矿地质背景提供了重要素材。本文在系统总结黑龙江省中东部的蛇绿岩、岛弧岩浆岩和矿床学研究成果基础上,分析并识别出洋内弧前弧玄武岩、富铌玄武（安山）岩和英云闪长岩—奥长花岗岩—花岗闪长岩（TTG）等岩石类型,并将研究区二叠纪—早侏罗世洋陆演化与成矿划分为二叠纪、早—中三叠世、晚三叠—早侏罗世三个阶段。（1）早二叠世佳木斯地块东侧的前弧玄武岩、富铌玄武岩和TTG岩类记录了古太平洋初始俯冲和洋陆俯冲,由于该西向俯冲导致佳木斯地块和松嫩地块间弧后拉张形成牡丹江洋,这期间佳木斯地块上的金矿围岩花岗岩类为与古太平洋俯冲背景有关的I型花岗岩。（2）早—中三叠世牡丹江洋发生双向俯冲消减,其中与牡丹江洋西向俯冲板片后撤相关的成矿序列为斑岩型钼矿。（3）晚三叠—早侏罗世佳木斯地块东缘受到古太平洋持续俯冲,以及晚三叠世末期—早侏罗世早期牡丹江洋闭合,形成松嫩地块和佳木斯地块同碰撞、碰撞后伸展以及古太平洋俯冲相关的岩浆事件,该时期主要形成早侏罗世斑岩型钼矿床和矽卡岩型多金属矿床。     

不同地表条件下青藏公路对多年冻土的热影响差异研究北大核心CSCD

在多年冻土区,道路工程会对周边的多年冻土产生热影响,但不同地表条件下的多年冻土对道路热影响的反馈差异尚不完全清楚。本研究基于青藏公路沿线两处监测场地的多年冻土监测数据,研究了不同地表条件下青藏公路对多年冻土的热影响差异。结果表明,青藏公路对多年冻土的热影响因地表条件的不同而存在差异。与植被覆盖率较高的监测场地相比,在植被覆盖率较低的监测场地,其多年冻土年平均地温更高、多年冻土活动层厚度更大,且青藏公路对多年冻土的水平热影响范围也相对更大。此外,在植被覆盖率较低的监测场地最靠近坡脚的位置处,由于地表条件的不同,其浅层土壤更易受到外界扰动,导致该位置浅层土壤与外界的热交换特征迥异于其他监测位置,这可能也是导致两处监测场地多年冻土的热状态存在差异的原因。目前,青藏工程走廊内各线性工程密布,工程间的相互影响及其与多年冻土间的关系已成为必须考虑的问题。本研究工作对于青藏高原多年冻土区工程走廊内线性工程之间的合理间距设定,以及即将建设的青藏高速公路双向路基间的合理距离设计都可提供参考,以达到减少工程热扰动,保障工程安全运营的目的。