三种统计预报模型在江苏省道路低温预警中的应用

为了更好地开展道路交通低温灾害的预警,减轻道路结冰给车辆行驶造成的危害,本文利用2012—2016年江苏省高速公路网AWMS系统交通气象观测数据,在对路面低温发生规律进行分析的基础上,结合多元线性回归、朴素贝叶斯以及支持向量机3种统计预报方法,开展了路面低温预警的统计建模与预报试验。结果表明:(1)江苏全省高速公路网路面温度出现0℃以下、-2℃以下、-5℃以下的低温频率均呈"北高南低"分布。(2)全省高速公路网路面温度出现0℃以下的低温时次大多在15:00到次日06:00之间。(3)在对京沪高速M9308站的单站建模与预报试验中发现,路面低温预报因子组合中以13:00气温、13:00—18:00气温变温、13:00路面温度、13:00—18:00路面变温、13:00路基温度、13:00—18:00路基变温、18:00相对湿度和18:00风速U分量为自变量组合的预报方程效果最好,3种方法中以朴素贝叶斯模型的预报准确率最高;(4)就全省高速公路网而言,3种统计预报模型的路面低温预报准确率均超过75%,通过对全路网路面低温预报的试验结果对比发现,多元线性回归方法对江苏省北部路网的预报效果最好,预报准确率大多在85%以上;而支持向量机模型对江苏省南部路网的预报效果最好,大部分站点的低温预报准确率达95%以上。     

北京市房山区大气污染物时空分布特征及气象影响因素分析

利用北京市房山区良乡镇和琉璃河镇内的区域自动气象站和环境监测站观测数据,对2013年至2015年PM_(2. 5)、PM_(10)、NO_2、SO_2、CO 5种大气污染物浓度变化特征进行了统计分析。结果显示,近3年来,两个镇综合污染物指数呈现逐年下降趋势,各污染物对房山区整体大气污染的贡献率从大至小依次为PM_(2. 5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、NO_2、CO,PM_(2. 5)已取代传统大气污染物SO_2成为房山区的主要大气污染贡献体。两个站点各污染物浓度均表现出明显的季节、月、日变化特征。在不同季节条件下,局地气象要素与污染天气发生概率之间有着很好的相关关系。因此,可根据气象要素分级方法找出各季节污染天气发生时最敏感的气象因素,为局地污染天气预报提供参考指标,也为防范空气污染、制定科学的综合管理措施提供科学参考。     

Detection of ocean internal waves based on Faster R-CNN in SAR images

Ocean internal waves appear as irregular bright and dark stripes on synthetic aperture radar(SAR) remote sensing images. Ocean internal waves detection in SAR images consequently constituted a difficult and popular research topic. In this paper, ocean internal waves are detected in SAR images by employing the faster regions with convolutional neural network features(Faster R-CNN) framework; for this purpose, 888 internal wave samples are utilized to train the convolutional network and identify internal waves. The experimental results demonstrate a 94.78% recognition rate for internal waves, and the average detection speed is 0.22 s/image. In addition, the detection results of internal wave samples under dif ferent conditions are analyzed. This paper lays a foundation for detecting ocean internal waves using convolutional neural networks.     

Sulfur and oxygen isotope study of sulfate reduction in experiments with natural populations from Fællestrand, Denmark

This study investigates the sulfur and oxygen isotope fractionations of dissimilatory sulfate reduction and works to reconcile the relationships between the oxygen and sulfur isotopic and elemental systems. We report results of experiments with natural populations of sulfate-reducing bacteria using sediment and seawater from a marine lagoon at Fællestrand on the northern shore of the island of Fyn, Denmark. The experiments yielded relatively large magnitude sulfur isotope fractionations for dissimilatory sulfate reduction (up to approximately 45‰ for ³⁴S/³²S) with higher δ¹⁸O accompanying higher δ³⁴S, similar to that observed in previous studies. The seawater used in the experiments was spiked by addition of ¹⁷O-labeled water and the ¹⁷O content of residual sulfate was found to depend on the fraction of sulfate reduced in the experiments. The ¹⁷O data provides evidence for recycling of sulfur from metabolic intermediates and for an ¹⁸O/¹⁶O fractionation of ∼25-30‰ for dissimilatory sulfate reduction. The close correlation between the ¹⁷O data and the sulfur isotope data suggests that isotopic exchange between cell water and external water (reactor water) was rapid under experimental conditions. The molar ratio of oxygen exchange to sulfate reduction was found to be about 2.5. This value is slightly lower than observed in studies of natural ecosystems [e.g., Wortmann U. G., Chernyavsky B., Bernasconi S. M., Brunner B., Böttcher M. E. and Swart P. K. (2007) Oxygen isotope biogeochemistry of pore water sulfate in the deep biosphere: dominance of isotope exchange reactions with ambient water during microbial sulfate reduction (ODP Site 1130). Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta71, 4221-4232]. Using recent models of sulfur isotope fractionations we find that our combined sulfur and oxygen isotopic data places constraints on the proportion of sulfate recycled to the medium (78-96%), the proportion of sulfur intermediate sulfite that was recycled by way of APS to sulfate and released back to the external sulfate pool (∼70%), and also that a fraction of the sulfur intermediates between sulfite and sulfide were recycled to sulfate. These parameters can be constrained because of the independent information provided by δ¹⁸O, δ³⁴S, δ¹⁷O labels, and Δ³³S.     

面向特大城市的地理国情监测框架体系建设与应用

地理国情监测是时代赋予测绘地理信息部门的新使命[1]。本文从特大城市的实际需求出发,提出了一个面向特大城市的地理国情普查监测框架体系建设思路,并以北京市的应用实例,分别从框架设计、内容指标、技术体系、数据资源、基础软件、统计分析、监测应用和系统建设等方面进行阐述,可为其他特大城市地理国情监测工作的开展提供参考和借鉴。     

基于高分一号用于植被信息提取的假彩色数字正射影像制作方案研究

对如何利用高分一号卫星数据制作假彩色数字正射彩色影像图进行了研究,基于高分一号利用432波段组合,可以突出地显示出植被信息,处理成果纹理细节清晰,无明显噪声,高分一号数据制作的标准假彩色数字正射影像图可以保证数据成果色彩分明,植被提取和解译精度高。     

GPS positioning algorithm for a spinning vehicle with discontinuous signals received by a single-patch antenna

A GPS positioning algorithm is studied and applied to locate a spinning vehicle on which a single-patch antenna is mounted. Because the antenna is directional and the received signal is periodically discontinuous, the bits and frames cannot be synchronized to assemble the transmission time of the satellite signals. The characteristics of the signals received by a single-patch antenna are described. The means by which the tracking loop works with these discontinuous signals are analyzed and simulated. Aiming at spinning projectiles, the positioning algorithm forming differencing with respect to a reference satellite is applied to locate the spinning vehicle by using code phases obtained in the tracking of the discontinuous signals. Experiments were carried out, and the results showed that the positioning algorithm works properly on the spinning vehicle. The results revealed that the positioning error of the algorithm applied to a spinning vehicle is close to that of the conventional positioning method applied to a non-spinning vehicle.     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Flow Over a Vegetation-Like Canopy Modelled as Arrays of Bluff-Body Elements

Turbulent flow over a vegetation canopy under neutral atmospheric conditions is investigated using large-eddy simulation. Each model tree, which consists of a sphere-shaped tree crown and a cylindrical trunk, is fully resolved. The resulting turbulence statistics and the drag force on the vegetation agree well with measurements from the corresponding wind-tunnel experiment described by Böhm et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 146:393–419, 2013). Statistically, this kind of model canopy exhibits both vegetation and bluff-body-flow characteristics. The time-averaged flow skims over the top of the underlying canopy, forming a low-momentum recirculation zone on the lee-side of the bluff elements, which causes significant dispersive stress within the canopy layer. Two other numerical representations of vegetation canopies, referred to as the drag-element and drag-crown approaches, have also been developed to assess the performance of simulations. Turbulence statistics suggest that the canopy shear layer interferes with wakes behind stems and crowns. The drag-crown approach yields better agreement between numerical results and experimental measurements than does the traditional drag-element approach, thus providing a promising numerical model for simulating canopy turbulence.     

河流旅游：缘起、内涵及其研究体系——一个本体论的诠释

从旅游及地域系统复杂性的角度探讨河流旅游的概念及其内涵。首先从厘清缘起出发,分析其中的3个传统——审美与寄情的传统、人文主义与后工业化的传统,以及朝觐的传统——及其对当今研究的意义。从本体论的角度,按照旅游主体对河流本体的利用形式及程度,构建了从完全亲近、部分亲近、部分疏离、到完全疏离4个维度的连续概念;从河流客体本身所受的人工干预程度,亦构建起从无干预、弱干预、强干预到完全干预4个维度的连续概念,在此基础上将二者叠合,诠释河流旅游内涵。在此概念体系中,提出在后现代/后工业化的语境下,建立基于主观体验和地域系统耦合的研究体系,旨在探寻基于不同体验类型的河流旅游主体参与方式、分析河流旅游地系统发展演化的“过程-结构-机制”、关注游憩娱乐功能主导下河流利用方式转变及其影响、关注游憩活动在流域综合发展中的地位,并结合系统研究与传统区域研究明确方法论与技术手段。     

气候变化对淮河流域水资源及极端洪水事件的影响

利用法国国家气象研究中心气候模型（Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model, CNRM）典型代表性浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP）情景资料和可变下渗容量模型（Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC）,分析了淮河流域未来气温、降水、水资源及可能洪水的变化趋势。结果表明,淮河流域未来气温将持续升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来2021~2050年较基准期（1961~1990年）升幅分别约为1.13℃、1.10℃和1.35℃;流域降水可能呈现略微增加趋势,3种排放情景下2021~2050年降水较基准期将分别增加5.81%、8.26%和6.94%;VIC模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性,能较好地模拟淮河流域的水文过程,在率定期和检验期,模型对王家坝站和蚌埠站模拟的水量相对误差都在5%以内,日径流过程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数（NSE）在0.70以上,月径流过程的NSE达到0.85以上。气候变化将导致淮河流域水文循环强度增加,流域水资源总体将可能呈增加趋势,王家坝站和蚌埠站断面洪水事件的发生可能性将增大。