Hysteresis‐based flood‐wave analysis using the concept of strain

Hysteresis represents a loop in a rating curve and is a phenomenon which closely resembles that occurring in stress–strain curves used for studying the elastic properties of solid substances in engineering mechanics. Earlier hysteresis‐based studies used for defining floodwave propagation in open channels have qualitatively shown that hysteresis is an index of energy loss during floodwave propagation. Using the concept of elasticity, this paper introduces a new term called flow strain (defined as the ratio of change in discharge to the initial discharge) for investigating hysteresis. The usefulness of this new term is evaluated with use of four dam‐break studies. The study reveals that:

• 1 flow strain is a function of three wave speeds, Seddon speed, Lagrange speed, and elastic speed;
• 2 a single linear reservoir concept frequently used in flood routing is a specific variant of the Seddon speed formula;
• 3 the non‐linear storage–discharge relationship, widely used in overland flow modelling, is a variant of the kinematic wave representation;
• 4 the discharge ordinates on the recession part of a hydrograph follow a simple first‐order autoregressive form;
• 5 the hysteresis, phase difference and logarithmic decrement all define attenuation and are indices of energy loss during floodwave propagation.

Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Possible Evidence of Long-Term Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere

We have obtained the temporal correlation function, Q(t), from time sequences of Caii K filtergrams and Dopplergrams from Antarctica, Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Q(t) gives the time evolution of the pattern under examination, supergranulation in this case. It has been found that Q(t) shows oscillatory signals of both 5-min and long-term periods. The 5-min oscillations are suppressed by averaging the images over 10 min. An exponential decay curve which represents the lifetime trend of supergranules, is fitted to Q(t) and subtracted out. The Q(t) residuals thus obtained contain the oscillatory component and are then subjected to a periodogram analysis. Significant periodicities in the range of 1.4–10 hours have been noted. The causes of these oscillations are not fully known at present, but the instrumental and atmospheric factors can be ruled out, pointing to solar origin. Various possibilities are discussed. Some of the observed periodicities may be considered as probable candidates for long-term oscillations in the Sun, such as the elusive gravity modes.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

Multivariate ENSO index and Indian monsoon rainfall: relationships on monthly and subdivisional scales

Summary El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to cause world-wide weather anomalies. It influences the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) also. But due to large spatial and temporal variability of monsoon rains, it becomes difficult to state any single uniform relationship between the ENSO and IMR that holds good over different subdivisions of India, though the general type of relationship between all India monsoon rainfall and ENSO is known since long. The selection of the most suitable ENSO index to correlate with the IMR is another problem. The purpose of the present study is twofold, namely, to examine the relationship between the ENSO and IMR for entire monsoon season by using an ENSO index which represents the ENSO phenomenon in a comprehensive way, namely, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and to establish the relationships between MEI and IMR for every meteorological subdivision of India for each monsoon month; i.e. June, July, August and September. A comparison of MEI/IMR correlations has been made with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)/IMR correlations. The result may find applications in the long range forecasting of IMR on monthly and subdivisional scales, especially over the high monsoon rainfall variability regions of Northwestern and the Peninsular India. Received October 27, 2000     

The Simulation of Ground Motions Using Envelope Summations

—?The technique of Midorikawa (1993) has been modified to obtain a resultant envelope function at the observation point by placing the rupture causing an earthquake in a layered earth model. The method and its dependency on various modelling parameters are studied in detail. The complete study shows that the generated resultant envelope follows important strong motion characteristics such as directivity and attenuation effects. The simulated resultant envelope is further used for generating synthetic accelerograms by multiplying filtered white noise with the envelope of accelerogram at a particular observation point. Filters through which white noise passes include the effects of geometrical spreading, anelastic attenuation and near-site attenuation at high frequencies.¶Uttarkashi earthquake is among few Indian earthquakes for which strong motion data are available at thirteen different stations. Using the technique presented in this work, envelope function as well as complete acceleration time history during Uttarkashi earthquake has been simulated at these observation points. Comparison of peak acceleration, duration and acceleration response spectra confirms the utility and efficacy of the approach.     

Malaria and related environmental issues in India: a case study of Aligarh city

Malaria is one of the most widespread diseases in the world. Endemic malaria no longer occurs in many temperate zones as a result of social and economic improvement. At present malaria is the Third World's most dreaded killer. It kills over 1 million people and causes 300–500 million episodes of illness. In India, malaria-reported deaths have shown an upward trend. In 1955, a drive to eradicate malaria was launched in India. But after initial success it failed and malaria made a comeback. Malarial mosquitoes generally prefer unpolluted natural breeding sites but now they have adapted to the changed urban environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine the occurrence of malaria and related environmental issues in a small town of India. Aligarh city, lying in the shadow of the country's capital New Delhi, was selected as a case study. Data were collected mainly from household surveys with the help of questionnaire interviews. About 2,185 households belonging to different income groups were sampled. The differences in the occurrence of malaria in the different income households (in 87% low, 69% lower-middle, 65% middle, 14% upper-middle, and 5% upper) suggest that most of these differences are related to the environmental conditions existing inside and outside their homes, such as poor drainage system, poor sullage disposal, open blocked drains, waterlogging and indoor water storage in open containers. Commitment both by the Government and local residents is needed to improve the environmental conditions and eradicate malaria.     

Cuttability assessment of hard coal seams

Summary A number of field and laboratory tests have been carried out on more than 15 coal seams of compressive strengths ranging from 19 MPa to 44 MPa to evolve methods which would help in the selection of suitable coaling machines for hard coal seams. The effect of physico-mechanical properties on cuttability were studied in the laboratory for all these coal seams to identify the relevant parameters affecting the specific energy of coal cuttability. These data were subjected to regression analysis to find the best fit for estimation of laboratory specific energy of coal samples on the basis of simple laboratory and field tests for the strength parameters. Field studies were also conducted over a large number of active mechanized coal faces to study in situ cuttability along with the geo-mining conditions of the site. The field and the laboratory data so generated were correlated and an attempt is made to establish a relationship for estimating the field specific energy for a particular capacity of coaling machines by considering the geo-mining domain of the field in totality.