Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for?>?100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.     

Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss

We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt Arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, the season in which RILEs account for the majority of the secular trends. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily due to low clouds, which show a more robust response than middle and high clouds across RILEs. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn reveal that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but there is no evidence that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the rapidly declining Arctic sea ice will be accentuated by changes in polar clouds.     

A modelling study of the effects of neutral air winds on electron content at mid-latitudes in winter

A modelling study of the effects of neutral air winds on the electron content of the mid-latitude ionosphere and protonosphere in winter has been made. The theoretical models are based on solutions of time dependent momentum and continuity equations for oxygen and hydrogen ions. The computations are compared with results from slant path observations of the ATS-6 radio beacon made at Lancaster (U.K.) and Boulder, Colorado (U.S.A.).It is found that the magnitude of the poleward neutral air wind velocity has a strong effect on the general magnitude of the electron content, but that the daily pattern of electron content variation is relatively insensitive to changes in the magnitude and phase of the wind pattern. These results are in contrast with the behaviour reported previously (Sethia et al., 1983) for summer conditions. However, the night-time electron content is increased by advancing the phase of the neutral air wind and decreased by retarding it. It appears that day-to-day variations in the electron content pattern in winter cannot be explained as effects of changing neutral air winds, which again contrasts with the findings for summer. As in summer, the wind has a major effect on the filling of the protonosphere, but in opposite sense.It is argued that the effect of the neutral air wind on the ionospheric and the protonospheric electron contents depends on the duration of the poleward wind in relation to daylight and on whether or not the wind reverses direction whilst the ionosphere is sunlit.     

Annual variations in water storage and precipitation in the Amazon Basin

We combine satellite gravity data from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) and precipitation measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), over the period from mid-2002 to mid-2006, to investigate the relative importance of sink (runoff and evaporation) and source (precipitation) terms in the hydrological balance of the Amazon Basin. When linear and quadratic terms are removed, the time-series of land water storage variations estimated from GRACE exhibits a dominant annual signal of 250 mm peak-to-peak, which is equivalent to a water volume change of ~1,800 km³. A comparison of this trend with accumulated (i.e., integrated) precipitation shows excellent agreement and no evidence of basin saturation. The agreement indicates that the net runoff and evaporation contributes significantly less than precipitation to the annual hydrological mass balance. Indeed, raw residuals between the de-trended water storage and precipitation anomalies range from ±40 mm. This range is consistent with stream-flow measurements from the region, although the latter are characterized by a stronger annual signal than our residuals, suggesting that runoff and evaporation may act to partially cancel each other.     

Errors in the gerdien measurement of atmospheric electric conductivity

Summary The measurement of conductivity has been an essential part of most atmospheric electricity research programs during the past century. This measurement is known to be vulnerable to a variety of potentially significant errors which can be separated into those resulting from diffusion of ions and those produced by electrical forces. Diffusion errors are caused by inlet tubing, screens, and inlet covers; and electrically produced errors may result from the effect of the accelerating potential or the potential of the apparatus itself. Detection and quantification of these errors has been the subject of several past studies which are discussed in detail. In this paper, a series of measurements and theoretical analyses is described in which the effects of each error mechanism are isolated, measured, and analyzed, and in which prior error reduction schemes are tested. It is shown that diffusive losses in inlet ducting and structures can be significant, and analytical estimations of these losses are presented which agree well with the measurements. The losses produced by electrical forces may also be significant even when plausible ameliorative measures are taken, and operating constraints to avoid this error source are developed. Past measurements of diffusive loss are found to be consistent with these results except in one case where improper operating conditions are indicated.With 11 FiguresRetired.     

The provenance and evolution of comets

The process of comet formation through the hierarchical aggregation of originally submicron-sized interstellar grains to form micron-sized particles and then larger bodies in the protoplanetary disc, culminating in the formation of planetesimals in the disc extending from Jupiter to beyond Neptune, is briefly reviewed. The planetesimal theory for the origin of comets implies the existence of distinct cometary reservoirs, with implications for the immediate provenance of observed comets (both long-period and short-period) and their evolution as a result of planetary perturbations and physical decay, for example splitting and sublimation. The principal mode of cometary decay and collisional interaction with the terrestrial planets is through the formation and evolution of streams of cometary debris and hitherto undiscovered families of cometary asteroids. Recent dynamical results, in particular the sungrazing and sun-colliding end-state for short-period comet and asteroid orbits, are briefly discussed.     

Climate policy strength compared: China,the US,the EU,India, Russia,and Japan

The few systematic international comparisons of climate policy strength made so far have serious weaknesses, particularly those that assign arbitrary weightings to different policy instrument types in order to calculate an aggregate score for policy strength. This article avoids these problems by ranking the six biggest emitters by far – China, the US, the EU, India, Russia, and Japan – on a set of six key policy instruments that are individually potent and together representative of climate policy as a whole: carbon taxes, emissions trading, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quotas, fossil fuel power plant bans, and vehicle emissions standards. The results cast strong doubt on any idea that there is a clear hierarchy on climate policy with Europe at the top: the EU does lead on a number of policies but so does Japan. China, the US, and India each lead on one area. Russia is inactive on all fronts. At the same time climate policy everywhere remains weak compared to what it could be.

Policy relevance

This study enables climate policy strength, defined as the extent to which the statutory provisions of climate policies are likely to restrict GHG emissions if implemented as intended, to be assessed and compared more realistically across space and time. As such its availability for the six biggest emitters, which together account for over 70% of global CO₂ emissions, should facilitate international negotiations (1) by giving participants a better idea of where major emitters stand relative to each other as far as climate policy stringency is concerned, and (2) by identifying areas of weakness that need action.     

The steepness and shape of wind waves

Variations are found in the shape and the steepness of wind-generated surface gravity waves between very young waves, such as seen in a laboratory tank, and larger waves of various wave ages encountered at sea as the result of wind stress over larger fetches. These differences in the characteristic shape of wind waves are presented as a function of the wave age. The wave steepness is also expressed as a function of wave age, the measurement of which is consistent with the 3/2-power law connecting wave height and characteristic period, normalized by the air friction velocity.