Were merely storm-landslides driven by the 2015-2016 Niño in the Mendoza River valley?

Since Holocene time, above-mean precipitations recorded during the El Niño warm ENSO phase have been linked to the occurrence of severe debris flows in the arid Central Andes. The 2015–2016 El Niño, for its unusual strength, began driving huge and dangerous landslides in the Central Andes (32°) in the recent South Hemisphere summer. The resulting damages negatively impacted the regional economy. Despite this, causes of these dangerous events were ambiguously reported. For this reason, a multidisciplinary study was carried out in the Mendoza River valley. Firstly, a geomorphological analysis of affected basins was conducted, estimating morphometric parameters of recorded events such as velocity, stream flow, and volume. Atmospheric conditions during such events were analyzed, considering precipitations, snow cover, temperature range, and the elevation of the zero isotherm. Based on our findings, the role of El Niño on the slope instability in the Central Andes is more complex in the climate change scenario. Even though some events were effectively triggered by intense summer rainstorm following expectations, the most dangerous events were caused by the progressive uplifting of the zero isotherm in smaller basins where headwaters are occupied by debris rock glaciers. Our research findings give light to the dynamic coupled system ENSO–climate change–landslides (ECCL) at least in this particular case study of the Mendoza River valley. Landslide activity in this Andean region is driven by wetter conditions linked to the ENSO warm phase, but also to progressive warming since the twentieth century in the region. This fact emphasizes the future impact of the natural hazards on Andean mountain communities.     

Ensemble clustering for efficient robust optimization of naturally fractured reservoirs

In the development of naturally fractured reservoirs (NFRs), the existence of natural fractures induces severe fingering and breakthrough. To manage the flooding process and improve the ultimate recovery, we propose a numerical workflow to generate optimal production schedules for smart wells, in which the inflow control valve (ICV) settings can be controlled individually. To properly consider the uncertainty introduced by randomly distributed natural fractures, the robust optimization would require a large ensemble size and it would be computationally demanding. In this work, a hierarchical clustering method is proposed to select representative models for the robust optimization in order to avoid redundant simulation runs and improve the efficiency of the robust optimization. By reducing the full ensemble of models into a small subset ensemble, the efficiency of the robust optimization algorithm is significantly improved. The robust optimization is performed using the StoSAG scheme to find the optimal well controls that maximize the net-present-value (NPV) of the NFR’s development. Due to the discrete property of a natural fracture field, traditional feature extraction methods such as model-parameter-based clustering may not be directly applicable. Therefore, two different kinds of clustering-based optimization methods, a state-based (e.g., s _w profiles) clustering and a response-based (e.g., production rates) clustering, are proposed and compared. The computational results show that the robust clustering optimization could increase the computational efficiency significantly without sacrificing much expected NPV of the robust optimization. Moreover, the performance of different clustering algorithms varies widely in correspondence to different selections of clustering features. By properly extracting model features, the clustered subset could adequately represent the uncertainty of the full ensemble.     

A method of alternating characteristics with application to advection-dominated environmental systems

We present a numerical method for solving a class of systems of partial differential equations (PDEs) that arises in modeling environmental processes undergoing advection and biogeochemical reactions. The salient feature of these PDEs is that all partial derivatives appear in linear expressions. As a result, the system can be viewed as a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), albeit each one along a different characteristic. The method then consists of alternating between equations and integrating each one step-wise along its own characteristic, thus creating a customized grid on which solutions are computed. Since the solutions of such PDEs are generally smoother along their characteristics, the method offers the potential of using larger time steps while maintaining accuracy and reducing numerical dispersion. The advantages in efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated in two illustrative examples that simulate depth-resolved reactive transport and soil carbon cycling.     

The geological sources of Hg contamination in Kejimkujik National Park,Nova Scotia,Canada: a GIS approach

Recent studies have shown that mercury (Hg) levels in many fish from remote lakes exceed the recommended guidelines for human consumption. Most of these studies conclude that the source of contamination lies in the atmosphere. Kejimkujik National Park (KNP), Nova Scotia, Canada, is considered to be a pristine ecosystem in which fish and loon Hg levels are anomalously high. Studies in the park have shown that atmospheric Hg concentrations may not be high enough to account for the Hg levels in the biota, indicating that the park may be an unusual system in terms of Hg distribution and migration. In an attempt to summarise and synthesise the numerous Hg data sets which have been produced in the park over the last 5-10 years, a geographic information systems (GIS) approach was used to create a common database using the watersheds in the park as the common parameter. By using a GIS database, new relationships and correlations are established and the spatial distribution of Hg levels is more readily evaluated and quantified. The results indicate that geological sources of Hg, arising from biotite-rich granite rocks, may play a larger role in the contamination of the park than previously thought.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the science support the Plan to Reduce,Mitigate, and Control Hypoxia?

We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Experimental study on the vertical deformation of aquifer soils under conditions of withdrawing and recharging of groundwater in Tongchuan region,China

Land subsidence due to aquifer-system compaction accompanying groundwater extraction is a global hazard. Rising urban construction and groundwater demand necessitate increased awareness and better understanding of the geological problem. Motivated by the lack of laboratory-scale studies on this issue, an experimental investigation on the newly developed Tongchuan region, China, is presented. The study addresses the deformation behaviors of three soil samples, with the lithology of silty clay, silt, and fine sand, under the conditions of groundwater withdrawal and recharge using the GDS Consolidation Testing System. Results indicate that all three samples were characterized by elastic–plastic deformation under the conditions of withdrawing and recharging. The vertical deformation of the silty clay in the aquitard above the first confined aquifer was larger than those of the other two samples, and its deformation is a gradual and long process; thus, considerable attention should be paid to deformation in this aquitard due to the apparent creep effect and tiny rebound deformation. However, the settlement of the fine sand in the second confined aquifer cannot be ignored due to the great thickness of the aquifer. For the same soil, as the pore-water pressure declined, the unit rate of vertical deformation decreased gradually, whereas the creep effect of deformation in the later declining stage of pore-water pressure was more apparent than that in the former declining stage. These observations are highly important to the local government, which is developing measures to prevent and control subsidence.