利用Logistic回归方法的高速桥（路）面结冰风险等级预警模型

为提升湖北省高速公路交通气象预报服务能力,丰富高速公路沿线桥、路面结冰预警预报产品,开展特色专业气象服务,利用武英高速凤凰关交通气象站2009—2011年3年冬季桥、路面温度观测数据,基于Logistic回归模型解析了桥、路面结冰温度条件频率随环境气温的变化规律,建立了道路结冰温度条件风险概率模型,并由此构建了武英高速桥(路)面结冰风险等级预警模型,得到以下结论。武英高速公路桥面先于路面结冰的临界环境气温存在2℃差效应,桥(路)面结冰温度条件的低、中、高风险频率对应环境气温3基点为1℃(-1℃)、-0.6℃(-2.7℃)、-2.2℃(-4.4℃)。环境气温降低到0.3~-1.6℃(-1.7~-3.8℃)是武英高速桥(路)面结冰频率变化的快增期,-0.6℃(-2.7℃)左右是桥(路)面结冰频率变化最敏感基点。研究以等级形式发布武英高速公路桥、路面结冰风险预警产品,用户可根据条件主动选择防范或规避风险。     

灵丘苦荞麦生态分布的气象条件

利用分区试验观测数据和2004—2013年近10年灵丘县3个区域的月平均气温、月平均降水量和无霜期日数等资料,结合走访调查结果,分析灵丘县苦荞麦生态分布与气象条件的相关性。结果表明,北山区是灵丘县适合苦荞种植的主要区域,该区域海拔较高,无霜期较短,气候凉爽,风速较大,这种小气候特征与苦荞麦生长发育习性相吻合。南山区和川下区海拔较低,无霜期较长,气候温湿,风速较低,加上人均耕地较少,苦荞麦种植以救灾填闲为主。研究气象条件对苦荞麦生态分布的影响,结合科学的田间管理,对灵丘县苦荞麦生产向优质化、产业化和规模化发展具有重要意义。     

The petrologic characteristics of carbonaceous shale and its significance of shale (las. Lucaogou formation,southern junggar basin北大核心CSCD

In the margin of southern Junggar basin, there is a potential of shale gas with the upper Permian l.uoaogou Formation. For a detailed understanding and evaluation with the shale gas geological characteristics of l.uoaogou Formation, the petrologic characteristics of the carbonaceous shale was researched, and the results show that: ( 1 ) in l.ucaogou Formation, the mean value of the brittle mineral percentages of the upper member, the middle member and the lower member are all more than 50%, but it is the highest in the middle member, and it is second in the lower member. At the same time, in the lower member, the mean value of the brittle mineral percentages is significantly lower than the upper and middle members; (2)the main brittle mineral in each member are quartz+feldspar, and there is a same change rule between the quartz+feldspar content and the total brittle mineral, that is; The quartz + feldspar content is the highest in the middle member, followed with the lower member, and it is obviously low in the upper member; (3 )from the lower member to the upper member, the content of carbonate in the carbonaceous shale are gradually reduced; (4) the clay mineral content of the carbonaceous shale of the upper member is far higher than the lower and middle members. And the clay mineral in each member are mainly constituted with illite and illite/Mongolia inter layer; ( 5 ) in the northern margin of the western part of the Bogda Mountain, south Junggar Basin, the brittle mineral content of the carbonaceous shale generally present as a decreasing trend from west to east to Fu Rang.     

基于聚落演变的岩溶山地聚落体系空间结构整合——以后寨河地区为例

基于高精度遥感影像和实地调查数据,选择黔中高原的典型岩溶山地普定县后寨河流域,探讨了1963~2010年岩溶山地的聚落和人口变迁,建立了基于聚落规模等级发展变迁和人口密度空间分布的乡村聚落发展适宜性和聚落整治类型评价方法。研究区大聚落和较大聚落主要分布在耕地条件和交通条件较好的中部峰丛洼地区东、西两侧,人口密度高值中心对应的往往是大聚落等级。研究区聚落可划分为重点村镇型、优先发展型、有条件扩展型、限制扩展型和迁弃型5类。     

马尾松树轮不同组分稳定碳同位素的差异及其对气候变化响应的初步研究

比较了中国东南地区九岭山和九连山两地马尾松（Pinus massoniana）树轮不同组分δ¹³C对气候变化响应的敏感性,结果表明：α纤维素δ¹³C和综纤维素δ¹³C在均数方面较全木δ¹³C分别偏正1.170‰±0.168‰和1.211‰±0.121‰;3种组分δ¹³C年际变化序列显著正相关（p < 0.001）;两地生长季中晚期水分状况是制约马尾松树轮δ¹³C的主要因子,3种组分δ¹³C与此时段的气候要素相关性均达到显著水平（p<0.05）,3种组分δ¹³C对气候变化响应的敏感性没有显著差异。