A CASE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING INTO A VORTEX

A case of mesoscale convective complex(MCC)which evolved into a vortex is documented in this paper.As theMCC entered into the dissipating phase,a well-defined spirally banded structure became visible in the satellite image.The blackbody temperature(TBB)of the residual cold-cloud-shield indicates the vortex existed in the layer from 400 to250 hPa.According to the upper air analysis,the upper level vortex was an anticyclone.The MCC-generated vortex wasvisualized in the satellite images because it was located in the subtropical high where the wind field was very weak.     

Errors prediction for vector-to-raster conversion based on map load and cell size

Vector-to-raster conversion is a process accompanied with errors.The errors are classified into predicted errors before rasterization and actual errors after that.Accurate prediction of the errors is beneficial to developing reasonable rasterization technical schemes and to making products of high quality.Analyzing and establishing a quantitative relationship between the error and its affecting factors is the key to error prediction.In this study,land cover data of China at a scale of 1:250 000 were taken as an example for analyzing the relationship between rasterization errors and the density of arc length(DA),the density of polygon(DP) and the size of grid cells(SG).Significant correlations were found between the errors and DA,DP and SG.The correlation coefficient(R2) of a model established based on samples collected in a small region(Beijing) reaches 0.95,and the value of R2 is equal to 0.91 while the model was validated with samples from the whole nation.On the other hand,the R2 of a model established based on nationwide samples reaches 0.96,and R2 is equal to 0.91 while it was validated with the samples in Beijing.These models depict well the relationships between rasterization errors and their affecting factors(DA,DP and SG).The analyzing method established in this study can be applied to effectively predicting rasterization errors in other cases as well.     

1986-2016年辽宁省强降水气候特征

利用1986—2016年62个国家气象站5—10月的逐日和逐小时降水观测资料,分析了辽宁省强降水的发生规律,包括强降水发生范围,逐年、逐月、逐旬、逐时变化特征、空间分布特征、雨强分布规律等。结果表明：1）1994年辽宁省强降水频繁、雨强大、降水范围大,为典型强降水年份。2）辽宁省强降水主要集中在7—8月,尤其是7月下旬—8月上旬,占总发生次数的38.3%。3）早晨和下午为短时强降水高发时段,上午及夜里为短时强降水的低发时段。4）辽宁省强降水呈东多西少、南多北少特点,存在3个高值区, 2个低值区。5）辽宁省短时强降水以20—40mm/h为主,日强降水以50—100mm/24h为主。     

前兆起伏加剧与短临地震预报

起伏加剧是相态突变前的一种临界现象,本文应用这一观点探讨了强地震前小震活动频次和地下流体、气体、地应力等前兆变化的起伏加剧现象,并得到以下初步结果: 1.临近强地震前较大范围内超过平均日活动水平的小震活动的空间分布具有有序性,即出现穿过未来大震区的小地震活动条带,条带的交汇区为未来大震区。2.强地震前的小震高频次活动日大多与外因出现时间同步,目前发现的外因有塑望、节气、中强以上磁暴以及大气压力下降等。这种小震的高频次活动一般出现在震前当天至一个月时间内。3.前兆的起伏时间和小震频次的起伏时间大致同步。它们在成因上有联系。     

An 8.1Ma calcite record of Asian summer monsoon evolution on the Chinese central Loess Plateau

Carbonates in loess-red clay sequences consist mainly of calcite and dolomite. The EDTA analysis of carbonates in different size fractions and magnetic susceptibility reveal that calcite is a sensitive index of summer monsoon. The chemical analysis of carbonates and calcite from an 8.1 Ma loess-red clay sequence at Chaona on the Chinese central Loess Plateau shows that the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon experienced four stages, namely 8.1―5.5 Ma, 5.5―2.8 Ma, 2.8―1.5 Ma and 1.5―0 Ma, with increasing intensification and fluctuation, suggesting a possible combining impacts of uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and global changes on the Asian summer monsoon.     

嘉黎断裂带活动性研究进展

嘉黎断裂是一条横贯青藏高原东南部的大型走滑断裂,在印度和欧亚板块碰撞前后通过调整应力平衡发挥着重要作用.本文根据前人对嘉黎断裂的研究成果,从地质学和地球物理学的角度,系统地总结分析嘉黎断裂带构造背景、壳幔结构、晚第四纪和现今的活动性质和速率.基于地质学方法,搜集前人在测年方面的研究结果,限定断裂的活动年限以及活动速率.同时在东段的北侧分支嘎龙寺附近,采用光释光测年法增加两个测年点,完善活动速度资料,并对断裂自西向东不同部位的走滑速率和错动断距进行对比分析.基于地球物理学观测资料,分析地震活动性和壳幔物质的速度结构、各向异性等参数,利用波形拟合方法,新增18个3~5级地震的震源机制解.结果表明,嘉黎断裂现今的构造变形主要表现为右旋走滑运动,但是在不同的分段具有显著的差异性,新生的西兴拉—达木分支是地震最活跃的区域.在此基础上,探讨青藏高原的构造演化过程,分析东构造结地区构造运动的稳定性,为川藏铁路雅安—林芝段工程建设地质灾害风险评估提供必要参考资料.     

Numerical simulations of deformation and movement of blocks within North China in response to 1976 Tangshan earthquake

Using methods of discontinuous deformation analysis and finite element (DDA+FEM), this paper simulates dynamic processes of the Tangshan earthquake of 1976, which occurred in the northern North China where its internal blocks apparently interacted. Studies focus upon both the movement and deformation of the blocks, in particular, the Ordos block, and variations of stress states on the boundary faults. The Tangshan earthquake was composed of three events: slipping motions of NNE-striking major fault, NE-striking fault near the northeastern end of the NNE-striking fault, and NW-striking fault on the southeastern side of the NNE-striking fault. Compared with previous studies, our model yields a result that is more agreeable with the configuration of aftershock distributions. A number of data are presented, such as the principle stress field during the earthquake, contours of the maximum shear stress, the strike-slip deformation between blocks near the earthquake focus, time-dependent variations of slips of earthquake-triggered faulting, the maximum slip distance, and stress drops. These results are in accord with the earthquake source mechanism, basic parameters from earthquake wave study, macro-isoseismic line, observed horizontal displacement vectors, etc. The Tangshan earthquake exerted different influences on the adjacent blocks and boundary faults between them, thus resulting in differential movement and deformation. The Ordos block seems to have experienced the small-scale counterclockwise rotation and deformation, but its northeast part, bounded on the east by the Taihangshan and on the north by the Yanshan and Yinshan belts, underwent relatively stronger deformation. The Tangshan earthquake also changed the stress state of boundary faults of the North China, leading to an increase in shear stress and a decrease in normal stress in the NW-trending Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault through Tangshan City and the northern border faults of the Ordos block, and therefore raises the potential risk of earthquake occurrence. This result is supported by the facts that a series of Ms ≥ 6 earthquakes took place at the northern margin of the Ordos block after the Tangshan earthquake.     

应用单多普勒雷达资料反演风场作暴雨中尺度分析

针对2002年6月23日发生在安徽西部的一次暴雨过程，以有限的探空资料作为大尺度背景场，应用合肥CINRAD-98D多普勒雷达资料，通过准四维变分分析方法进行反演，获得了不易被常规探测到的中小尺度三维风场，由此分析了引起强降水的中尺度天气系统。指出暴雨中心位于风速切变的下方，同时上空也伴随辐合中心，以及正涡度极大值。分析结果表明，变分法是一种较为准确的从雷达资料中提取三维风场的方法。利用雷达资料反映中尺度天气系统，同时又加入大尺度的背景场作为基础，两者相互弥补，能较真实地反映实际天气状况。在气象预报中有效地应用多普勒雷达资料，有助于研究更为细致的中小尺度天气系统结构，而且也可为中小尺度数值预报模式提供准确的初始场。     

陕西强连阴雨天气个例的综合分析

利用T213客观分析资料,对陕西2003年8月24日~9月7日强连阴雨天气过程的综合分析表明,连阴雨发生在欧亚稳定的环流形势下,乌拉尔山阻塞高压的建立和稳定使东亚中纬度纬向环流得以长时间维持。偏北、偏西、偏强的西太平洋副热带高压,不仅使冷空气受阻于秦岭山脉附近,同时其外围的偏南气流也为雨区提供了丰富的水汽,而乌拉尔山阻塞高压的崩溃引导冷空气大举南下,西太平洋副热带高压的东移南退则预示着持续的降水天气的结束。东亚合成环流的垂直结构表明,连阴雨期间秦岭邻近地区始终处于锋区中,并存在低空辐合、高空辐散的垂直结构。水汽条件分析表明连阴雨期间水汽的输送主要在对流层底部。热力学条件分析显示连阴雨期间河套始终为高潜热能区和位势不稳定区,偏南气流对热量的输送与高潜热能的维持有密切的关系,而低层偏东气流的加强促使了潜热能的释放,并导致了秦巴山区强降水天气的产生。