A spatial temporal downscaling approach to development of IDF relations for Perth airport region in the context of climate change

ABSTRACT

Downscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Perth airport area. A multiple regression-based statistical downscaling model tool was used for spatial downscaling of daily rainfall using general circulation models (GCMs) (Hadley Centre’s GCM and Canadian Global Climate Model) climate variables. A simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed annual maximum (AM) rainfall. Then, statistical properties of sub-daily AM rainfall were estimated by scaling an invariant model based on the generalized extreme value distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub-daily rainfall. This proved the capability of the proposed approach in developing a linkage between large-scale GCM daily variables and extreme sub-daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods, which show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trends for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae     

Impact of interacting bark structure and rainfall conditions on stemflow variability in a temperate beech-oak forest,central Germany

ABSTRACT

Trees concentrate rainfall to near-stem soils via stemflow. When canopy structures are organized appropriately, stemflow can even induce preferential flow through soils, transporting nutrients to biogeochemically active areas. Bark structure significantly affects stemflow, yet bark-stemflow studies are primarily qualitative. We used a LaserBark to compute bark microrelief (MR), ridge-to-furrow amplitude (R) and slope (S) metrics per American Society of Mechanical Engineering standards (ASME-B46.1–2009) for two morphologically contrasting species (Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech), Quercus robur L. (pendunculate oak)) under storm conditions with strong bark water storage capacity (BWSC) influence in central Germany. Smaller R and S for F. sylvatica significantly lowered BWSC, which strongly and inversely correlated to maximum funnelling ratios and permitted stemflow generation at lower rain magnitudes. Larger R and S values in Q. robur reduced funnelling, diminishing stemflow drainage for larger storms. Quercus robur funnelling and stemflow was more reliant on intermediate rain intensities and intermittency to maintain bark channel-dependent drainage pathways. Shelter provided by Q. robur’s ridged bark also appears to protect entrained water, lengthening mean intrastorm dry periods necessary to affect stemflow. Storm conditions where BWSC plays a major role in stemflow accounted for much of 2013’s rainfall at the nearest meteorological station (Wulferstedt).

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor not assigned     

Microbial contamination monitoring and control during human space missions

The ubiquity and resilience of microorganisms makes them unavoidable in most environments including space habitats. The impaired immune system of astronauts in flight raises the level of concern about disease risk during human space missions and additionally these biological contaminants may affect life support systems and hardware. In this review, the microbial contamination observed in manned space stations and in particular the International Space Station ISS will be discussed, demonstrating that it is a microbiologically safe working and living habitat. Microbial contamination levels were in general below the implemented quality standards, although, occasional contamination hazard reports indicate that the current prevention and monitoring strategies are the strict minimum.     

A Kalman Filter Technique for Improving Medium-Term Predictions of the Sunspot Number

In this work we describe a technique developed to improve medium-term prediction methods of monthly smoothed sunspot numbers. Each month, the predictions are updated using the last available observations (see the monthly output in real time at ). The improvement of the predictions is provided by applying an adaptive Kalman filter to the medium-term predictions obtained by any other method, using the six-monthly mean values of sunspot numbers covering the six months between the last available value of the 13-month running mean (the starting point for the predictions) and the “current time” (i.e. now). Our technique provides an effective estimate of the sunspot index at the current time. This estimate becomes the new starting point for the updated prediction that is shifted six months ahead in comparison with the last available 13-month running mean, and it provides an increase of prediction accuracy. Our technique has been tested on three medium-term prediction methods that are currently in real-time operation: The McNish–Lincoln method (NGDC), the standard method (SIDC), and the combined method (SIDC). With our technique, the prediction accuracy for the McNish–Lincoln method is increased by 17 – 30%, for the standard method by 5 – 21% and for the combined method by 6 – 57%.     

Mauritius since the last glacial: environmental and climatic reconstruction of the last 38 000 years from Kanaka Crater

A 10 m long peat core from the Kanaka Crater (20° 25′ S, 57° 31′ E), located at 560 m elevation in Mauritius, was analyzed for microfossils. Eight radiocarbon ages show the pollen record reflects environmental and climatic change of the last ca. 38 cal ka BP. The record shows that the island was continuously covered by forest with Erica heath (Philippia) in the uplands. Cyperaceous reedswamp with Pandanus trees was abundant in the coastal lowlands as well as locally in the waterlogged crater. The record shows changes in climatic humidity (wet from 38.0 to 22.7 cal ka BP, drier from 22.7 to 10.6 cal ka BP, and wetter again from 10.6 cal ka BP to recent) as the main response to climate change. A high turnover in montane forest species is evidenced at 22.7 cal ka BP and at the start of the Holocene. The limited altitudinal ranges in the mountains of Mauritius (maximum altitude 828 m), and changing humidity being more important than changing temperature, suggests that in response to climate change a reassortment in taxonomic composition of montane forests might be equally important as displacement of forest types to new altitudinal intervals. We found weak impact of the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and data suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole is a more important driver for climatic change in the southwest Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete fracture model for simulating waterflooding processes under fracturing conditions

In our study, we develop a model for simulating fracturing processes in a poroelastic medium. The proposed approach combines the discrete fracture model enriched with contact plane mechanics. The model captures mechanical interactions of fractures and a deformable medium, fluid, and heat transfer in fractures and in a porous medium. Both effects of poroelasticity and thermoelasticity are accounted in our model. Mass and heat conservation equations are approximated by the finite volume method, and mechanical equilibrium equations are discretized by means of the Galerkin finite element approach. Two‐dimensional grid facets between 3‐dimensional finite elements are considered as possible fracture surfaces. Most of these facets are inactive from the beginning and are activated throughout the simulation. A fracture propagation criterion, based on Irwin's approach, is verified on each nonlinear iteration. When the criterion is satisfied, additional contact elements are added into finite element and discrete fracture model formulations respectively. The proposed approach allows modeling of existing natural and artificially created fractures within one framework. The model is tested on single‐ and multiple‐phase fluid flow examples for both isothermal and thermal conditions and verified against existing semianalytical solutions. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated on an example of practical interests where a sector model of an oil reservoir is simulated with different injection and production regimes.     

Two‐stage Variscan metamorphism in the Canigou massif: Evidence for crustal thickening in the Pyrenees

The Variscan metamorphism in the Pyrenees is dominantly of the low‐pressure–high‐temperature (LP‐HT) type. The relics of an earlier, Barrovian‐type metamorphism that could be related to orogenic crustal thickening are unclear and insufficiently constrained. A microstructural and petrological study of micaschists underlying an Ordovician augen orthogneiss in the core of the Canigou massif (Eastern Pyrenees, France) reveals the presence of two syntectonic metamorphic stages characterized by the crystallization of staurolite (M1) and andalusite (M2), respectively. Garnet is stable during the two metamorphic stages with a period of resorption between M1 and M2. The metamorphic assemblages M1 and M2 record similar peak temperatures of 580°C at different pressure conditions of 5.5 and 3 kbar, respectively. Using chemical zoning of garnet and calculated P–T pseudosections, a prograde P–T path is constrained with a peak pressure at ~6.5 kbar and 550°C. This P–T path, syntectonic with respect to the first foliation S1, corresponds to a cold gradient (of ~9°C/km), suggestive of crustal thickening. Resorption of garnet between M1 and M2 can be interpreted either in terms of a simple clockwise P–T path or a polymetamorphic two‐stage evolution. We argue in favour of the latter, where the medium‐pressure (Barrovian) metamorphism is followed by a period of significant erosion and crustal thinning leading to decompression and cooling. Subsequent advection of heat, probably from the mantle, leads to a new increase in temperature, coeval with the development of the main regional fabric S2. LA‐ICP‐MS U–Th–Pb dating of monazite yields a well‐defined date at c. 300 Ma. Petrological evidence indicates that monazite crystallization took place close to the M1 peak pressure conditions. However, the similarity between this age and that of the extensive magmatic event well documented in the eastern Pyrenees suggests that it probably corresponds to the age of monazite recrystallization during the M2 LP‐HT event.     

Formational history of the Wicklow Trough: a marine-transgressed tunnel valley revealing ice flow velocity and retreat rates for the largest ice stream draining the late-Devensian British–Irish Ice Sheet

The Wicklow Trough is one of several Irish Sea bathymetric deeps, yet unusually isolated from the main depression, the Western Trough. Its formation has been described as proglacial or subglacial, linked to the Irish Sea Ice Stream (ISIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum. The evolution of the Wicklow Trough and neighbouring deeps, therefore, help us to understand ISIS dynamics, when it was the main ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. The morphology and sub-seabed stratigraphy of the 18 km long and 2 km wide Wicklow Trough is described here from new multibeam echosounder data, 60 km of sparker seismic profiles and five sediment cores. At a maximum water depth of 82 m, the deep consists of four overdeepened sections. The heterogeneous glacial sediments in the Trough overlay bedrock, with indications of flank mass-wasting and subglacial bedforms on its floor. The evidence strongly suggests that the Wicklow Trough is a tunnel valley formed by time-transgressive erosional processes, with pressurised meltwater as the dominant agent during gradual or slow ice sheet retreat. Its location may be fault-controlled, and the northern end of the Wicklow Trough could mark a transition from rapid to slow grounded ice margin retreat, which could be tested with modelling.