基于LSTM的海洋表面短期风速预测研究

为实现对海面风速精确的短期预测,提出了一种基于长短期记忆(LSTM,longshort-termmemory)神经网络的短期风速预测模型,选取OceanSITES数据库中单个浮标站点采集的风速历史数据作为模型输入,经过训练设置最佳参数等步骤,实现了以LSTM方法,对该站点所在海区海面风速在各季节性代表月份海面风速的24 h短期预测。同时通过不同预测时长的实验以及与BP(back propagation)神经网络神经网络和径向基函数神经网络(radialbasisfunctionneuralnetwork,RBF)的预测效果对比实验,证明了LSTM预测方法相比上述两种神经网络预测方法,在海表面风速预测应用中的优越性。最后通过多个海域对应的站点风速数据预测实验,证明了LSTM神经网络模型的普遍适用性,由相关系数和预测误差的分析可知该方法具备应对急剧变化数据的预测稳定性,可以作为海洋表面风速短期预测的一种可靠方法。     

河北省互联网发展的地理特征分析

信息流在社会空间结构研究尤其是在城市和区域空间结构研究中,占据了越来越重要的地位,本文以网络的基础设施-网络带宽数据为基础,分析了信息流的等级结构和结构模式,揭示了目前河北省互联网网络结构的空间特征,并对其未来的发展提出初步的设想。     

地震波的场方程矩阵和能量的正定二次型及其意义

场方程是能够表述半空间地震波场的整体特征.波动方程、速度方程和能量方程.通过分析可知每个场方程都具有各自的“场方程矩阵”.能量方程能够对所有场方程矩阵进行综合和贯通,给出了能量方程以“弹性矩阵”为核心的普适性表达形式.最后,运用矩阵的正定二次型理论阐述了“能量矩阵与弹性矩阵”之间一致的对称性和正定性.能量矩阵蕴含的动态力的平衡关系、速度的时间_空间分布和能量的传播及变化的物理意义,能够从能量矩阵的正定二次型特性表述出来.本文研究分析问题的方法完全适用于复杂介质模型,相关的认识和结论可以拓展到均匀黏弹性各向同性介质、均匀弹性各向异性介质、均匀黏弹性各向异性介质以及比奥饱和流体介质.     

六盘山植物区系基本特征的初步分析

六盘山位于陕甘宁交接地区,属于半湿润气候向半干旱气候的过渡带,是黄土高原生物多样性最丰富的地区之一,有维管植物836种,隶属于93科,359属。本区属于泛北极植物区、中国-日本森林植物亚区、华北植物地区的黄土高原亚地区。全部种子植物可分为13个分布区类型和12个变型,以北温带分布类型为主,与其他植物区系联系广泛,但特有属较贫乏。六盘山与小陇山、太白山和中条山的属相似性系数较高,均达60%以上,表明几座山体处于相似的生物气候背景之下,地理隔离性不明显。与贺兰山的属相似性系数低于60%,因为贺兰山位于干旱的荒漠与半荒漠区,可能有地理隔离作用。     

冻结-冻融过程中水分运移机理

为研究冻结-冻融过程中水分运移机理,在天山北麓平原通过人为控制潜水不同埋深条件下的模拟试验和田间土壤水分运移观测试验,分析了土壤水势分布和土壤含水量分布特征,发现冻结过程不同潜水埋深条件下的土壤水分运移机理、土壤水与潜水之间的相互转化关系有明显差异.在冻结过程中,潜水浅埋条件下,冻结层下界面与潜水面之间土壤水分运移状态呈上渗型,土壤水向冻结层下界面处运移、积累,同时引起潜水蒸发损耗使潜水位下降,表现出地下水向土壤水转化的基本特征.潜水深埋区,土壤水分运移状态呈上渗-入渗型,同样土壤水向冻结层下界面处运移、积累,同时潜水得到一定的入渗补给并使潜水位上升,表现为土壤水向地下水转化的特征.冻融过程中对于不同潜水埋深,由原来各自的土壤水分运移状态均逐渐转变为入渗型,形成潜水入渗补给,表现为土壤水向地下水转化的特征.冻融期是土壤水资源、地下水资源形成的重要时期,对于干旱少雨的西北地区而言,冻融水的形成、运移和入渗补给地下水具有重要的生态环境意义.     

极端干旱荒漠区典型晴天大气热力边界层结构分析

利用极端干旱区敦煌野外观测试验资料,分析了极端干旱荒漠区夏季典型晴天位温、风速、比湿等主要物理要素的垂直结构特征及其地表热力和近地层大气运动特征的日变化规律。发现在极端干旱地区夏季晴天大气热力边界层结构十分独特。在夜间,贴地逆温层最低在900 m以上,最厚可以达到1 750 m,逆温层上面的残余层一般能达到4 000 m左右的高度。在白天,位温超绝热递减层高达1 000 m,超绝热递减层上面的混合层最高达3 700 m,混合层顶上还有大约450 m甚至更厚的夹卷层。当白天对流层发展达到残余层以后,混合层的发展明显加快。风速和比湿垂直廓线特征很好地印证了大气热力边界层独特的结构特征,地表热力和近地层大气运动特征也为这种独特的大气热力边界层结构提供了较好的物理支持。     

0605号台风"格美"在江西致灾的气象成因分析

运用常规观测资料、T213资料等,对0605号台风“格美”的移动路径和暴雨成因进行了分析。分析结果表明,“格美”登陆后虽然强度迅速减弱,但由于其减弱后的低气压环流在江西逗留时间长,所携带的水汽和造成的辐合上升条件足以造成江西出现暴雨天气。通过分析探空、地面加密自动站和闪电定位等资料进一步指出,地面中尺度辐合线、对流不稳定和地形抬升的共同作用,加剧了赣西南局地降雨的强度。由于前期台风“碧利斯”已造成赣州市出现较强降水,赣南土壤含水量、地下水位和江河湖库水位均较高,使得“格美”造成的短时强降雨迅速产生有效径流和汇流,导致局地山洪暴发而致灾。     

辽阳地区玉米螟发生条件分析与预报模式

利用1994～2004年辽阳市植物保护站提供的玉米螟田间调查资料与辽阳市气象台同期气象资料进行了相关分析,找出了影响玉米螟发生的3个主要因子,并建立了多元回归预报模式。结果表明:辽阳地区1月平均气温、上年5月的虫卵量、上年10月幼虫量与当年虫害发生轻重关系十分密切;控制10月幼虫量,是防治下年度玉米螟虫害大面积发生的主要环节;虫害发生的轻重有明显的周期性变化。     

Investigation of highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations in the discontinuous deformation analysis method

Large‐scale engineering computing using the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method is time‐consuming, which hinders the application of the DDA method. The simulation result of a typical numerical example indicates that the linear equation solver is a key factor that affects the efficiency of the DDA method. In this paper, highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations are investigated, and two modifications of the DDA programme are presented. The first modification is a linear equation solver with high efficiency. The block Jacobi (BJ) iterative method and the block conjugate gradient with Jacobi pre‐processing (Jacobi‐PCG) iterative method are introduced, and the key operations are detailed, including the matrix‐vector product and the diagonal matrix inversion. Another modification consists of a parallel linear equation solver, which is separately constructed based on the multi‐thread and CPU‐GPU heterogeneous platforms with OpenMP and CUDA, respectively. The simulation results from several numerical examples using the modified DDA programme demonstrate that the Jacobi‐PCG is a better iterative method for large‐scale engineering computing and that adoptive parallel strategies can greatly enhance computational efficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the contributions of topographic,soil, and vegetation features on the spatial distributions of surface soil moisture in a steep natural forested headwater catchment

Surface soil moisture has been extensively studied for various land uses and landforms. Although many studies have reported potential factors that control surface soil moisture over space or time, the findings have not always been consistent, indicating a need for identification of the main factors. This study focused on the static controls of topographic, soil, and vegetation features on surface soil moisture in a steep natural forested headwater catchment consisting of three hillslope units of a gully area, side slope, and valley‐head slope. Using a simple correlation analysis to investigate the effects of the static factors on surface soil moisture at depths of 0–20 cm at 470 points in 13 surveys, we addressed the characteristics of surface soil moisture and its main controlling factors. The results indicated that the mean of surface soil moisture was in the decreasing order of gully area > valley‐head slope > side slope. The relationship between the mean and standard deviation of surface soil moisture showed a convex‐upward shape in the headwater catchment, a negative curvilinear shape in the gully area, and positive curvilinear shapes at the side and valley‐head slopes. At the headwater catchment and valley‐head slope, positive contributions of soil porosity and negative contributions of slope gradient and saturated hydraulic conductivity were the main controlling factors of surface soil moisture under wetter conditions, whereas positive contributions of topographic wetness index and negative contributions of vegetation density were the main controlling factors of surface soil moisture under drier conditions. At the side slope underlain by fractured bedrocks, only saturated hydraulic conductivity and vegetation density were observed to be the controlling factors. Surface soil moisture in the gully area was mainly affected by runoff rather than were static features. Thus, using hillslope units is effective for approximately estimating the hydrological behaviours of surface moisture on a larger scale, whereas dependency between the main static factors and moisture conditions is helpful for estimating the spatial distributions of surface moisture on a smaller scale.