宁夏短期天气预报业务流程

介绍了以宁夏ＭＯＳ预报结果为基本指导产品、结合宁夏气象业务具体情况、通过二次开发建立在微机上的新型短期天气预报业务流程。该流程的建立,使宁夏短期天气预报人员基本摆脱了传统的纸上作业而转向新型的计算机预报平台,使宁夏短期天气预报的自动化水平上了一个新台阶。     

Cloud effects on air-sea interactions during the 1979 Indian summer monsoon as studied from satellite observations

Summary The Indian summer monsoon, one of the earth's most vigorous and energetic seasonally occurring weather events, influences the global atmospheric circulation. Its onset, duration, and intensity are governed by large- and meso-scale geophysical processes, such as surface solar heating and air-sea interactions. In this paper, using innovative combinations of satellite sensor data, we investigate some of these fundamental processes which are closely tied to clouds and control the monsoon system's evolution. The study, which focuses on the monsoon period of June, 1979, examines the low-frequency variability of clouds and their effects on air-sea processes through an analysis of the complex influence clouds play on the surface heat and water budgets. First, the effects of clouds on both the solar and longwave components of the surface radiation budget are assessed using a cloud radiative forcing parameter. While the effects of clouds on the long-wave irradiance act in a manner opposite to their effects on the shortwave irradiance, only a partial compensation is found to take place and the net effect results in a maximum cloud forcing of 60 Wm^–2 in the southwestern Arabian Sea. Second, employing satellite-derived precipitation and evaporation estimates, the paper analyzes the net surface fresh water budget variability around the monsoon onset. This budget is important in that fresh water affects the upper ocean density distribution and, consequently, the thermohaline circulation. Two regions are found to dominate the analysis: the western Arabian Sea, where evaporation is dominant by more than 10 mm day^–1, and the eastern Arabian Sea, where precipitation is dominant by more than 10 mm day^–1. Thus, a strong zonal gradient of fresh water at the surface is established during the monsoon. The last topic investigated is the intraseasonal variability of convection as analyzed using a cloud parameter indicative of deep convection. Cloud oscillations of 30–50 days, associated with the different phases of the monsoon, are found to propagate northward in the eastern Indian Ocean and eastward in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis not only supports the hypothesis that the 30–50-day oscillation is driven by deep convection but also, and more importantly, suggests that the ocean thermal forcing is modulated by 30–50-day oscillations through cloud-induced surface radiative forcing. Although the results presented are limited in scope and preliminary because of the diffculty in quantifying the accuracy of the parameters examined, they do demonstrate: 1) the role of clouds in modulating the surface heat and water budgets, 2) the advantage of using combinations of multi-sensor and multi-platform satellite observations to quantify interrelated surface heat/water budget processes, and 3) the potential to examine the intraseasonal variability of air-sea interaction processes associated with the monsoon, even though these processes are not directly measurable from space.With 6 FiguresB. DiJulio passed away in September 1990.     

A NEW APPROACH TO THE INVERSION OF SEISMIC DATA*

A new inversion method for seismic reflection data is based on impedance concepts and uses transformations to reduce the essentially non-linear problem to a linear eigenvalue formulation without approximation. A set of reflection data has been inverted using this method. The characteristic impedances of the layers so determined are compared with log data from a reference borehole.     

Relationship of galaxies from the second Byurakan survey to Zwicky clusters. II. Discussion

We analyze the data presented in a previous paper by Gyulzadyan and Petrosian, and discuss the results of a statistical investigation of the relationship between SBS galaxies and Zwicky clusters. The main results are that SBS galaxies follow the overall galaxy distribution in clusters and they do not avoid any type of Zwicky cluster. There is a significantly higher probability of finding SBS galaxies occurring in medium compact clusters than in open clusters. They also follow the well-established morphology-density relation. Earlier morphological type, higher luminosity, larger linear size, and redder SBS galaxies tend to be found in clusters with higher compactness, or in more compact regions of the clusters. The number distribution of SBS galaxies in Zwicky open clusters probably follows the distribution of normal galaxies. The number distribution of SBS galaxies in medium compact and compact clusters shows two-maxima structure. Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 225–236 (May 2009).     

Nature of the small main belt Asteroid 3169 Ostro

We present a set of rotational lightcurve measurements of the small main belt Asteroid 3169 Ostro. Our observations reveal an unambiguous, double-peaked rotational lightcurve with a peak-to-peak variation up to 1.2±0.05 mag and a synodic period of 6.509±0.001 h. From the large flux variation and the overall shape of the lightcurves, we suggest that 3169 Ostro could be a tightly bound binary or a contact binary, similar to the Trojan Asteroid 624 Hektor. A shape model of this system is proposed on the assumption that 3169 Ostro is a Roche binary described by a pair of homogeneous elongated bodies, with a size ratio of 0.87, in hydrostatic equilibrium and in circular synchronous motion around each other. The direction of the spin axis is determined modulo 180° by its J2000 ecliptic coordinates λ₀=50±10°, β₀=±54±5°. The binary interpretation and the pole solution adequately fit the earlier photometric observations made in 1986 and 1988. However, additional supporting lightcurves are highly desirable especially in the next mutual events occurrence of 2008 and 2009 in order to remove the pole ambiguity and to confirm unambiguously the binary nature of 3169 Ostro.     

A comparative study of sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines,vote feature intervals,and logistic regression in landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS

Landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS has been done for part of Uttarakhand region of Himalaya (India) with the objective of comparing the predictive capability of three different machine learning methods, namely sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines (SMOSVM), vote feature intervals (VFI), and logistic regression (LR) for spatial prediction of landslide occurrence. Out of these three methods, the SMOSVM and VFI are state-of-the-art methods for binary classification problems but have not been applied for landslide prediction, whereas the LR is known as a popular method for landslide susceptibility assessment. In the study, a total of 430 historical landslide polygons and 11 landslide affecting factors such as slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, lithology, soil, land cover, distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to lineaments, and rainfall were selected for landslide analysis. For validation and comparison, statistical index-based methods and the receiver operating characteristic curve have been used. Analysis results show that all these models have good performance for landslide spatial prediction but the SMOSVM model has the highest predictive capability, followed by the VFI model, and the LR model, respectively. Thus, SMOSVM is a better model for landslide prediction and can be used for landslide susceptibility mapping of landslide-prone areas.     

Allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter in surface waters in Karelia

A relationship between indirect chemical indices of organic matter content of surface waters and light absorption in the visible and ultraviolet ranges is discussed. The allochthonous and autochthonous types of organic matter are found to essentially differ in the rate of light absorption. Techniques are proposed for the calculation of the concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter by the integral rate of light consumption in the visible region and the bichromate oxidability of water, as well as by three indirect indices: chemical oxygen demand, permanganate oxidability, and water color index. The mean concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter in large lakes (Ladoga, Onega, and Baikal) and in rivers and smaller water bodies in Karelia (>300 water objects) are analyzed. Allochthonous organic matter was found to predominate in most surface waters of Karelia (>80%), while allochthonous organic matter predominates only in lakes with a small specific catchment area (supposedly, <5) and in highly eutrophic lakes.     

Dust-acoustic soliton in a plasma with multi-species ions and kappa-distributed electrons

In this work, we consider the formation of electrostatic, dust-acoustic solitary structure in a unmagnetized plasma with Lorentzian electrons (kappa-distributed) and more than one species of thermal ions (Maxwellian). The work is inspired by results of different space-based observations of electrostatic solitary waves (ESW) in the near-earth and magnetospheric plasmas and recent experimental realization of existence of superthermal electron component in various space plasmas. We have, in this work, shown that existence of compressive potential structure is possible only with more than one species of thermal ions. Besides, formation of compressive double layers is also possible which depends on the amount of deviation of the electron thermal velocities from a Maxwellian distribution. We show that both dust-temperature and super-thermal electrons lead to a decrease in the soliton amplitude.     

Occurrence and characteristics of sporadic sodium layer observed by lidar at a mid-latitude location

Na lidar observations of SSL during the past 5 years at a mid-latitude location (Wuhan, China, 31°N, 114°E) are reported in this paper. From 26 SSL events detected in about 230 h of observation, an SSL occurrence rate of 1 event/9 h at our location was obtained. This result, combined with that reported by Nagasawa and Abo (Geophys. Res. Lett. 22 (1995) 263) at Tokyo, Japan, reveals that the SSL occurrence can be relatively frequent at some mid-latitude locations. The statistical analyses of main parameters for the 26 SSL events were made, and the results were compared with those previously reported. By examining the corresponding data from a nearby ionosonde, it was found that there was a fairly good correlation between SSL and Es. Of the 18 pairs of SSL and Es events checked, 15 of SSL were accompanied by Es, and 8 pairs of them were correlated within 1 h in time and within 5 km in altitude. From the analyses of observed perturbations during SSL development, the role of dynamic processes of atmosphere in the SSL formations were emphasized.     

Buried paleo-channels on the New Jersey continental margin: channel porosity structures from electromagnetic surveying

We report on a marine electromagnetic (EM) survey across two portions of the New Jersey continental margin that have been previously shown to contain buried paleo-channels. The EM method used provides bulk porosity estimates to depths of around 20 m below the seafloor and is thus able to place porosity constraints on the nature of the channel infill and the contrast in physical properties across the channel boundaries. Our data show that a key condition for the channels to have an electrical signature is that they incise an underlying regional unconformity, R, thought to represent a subaerially eroded surface, exposed during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. Channels that cut R are seen through increases in apparent porosity. Another seismically imaged channel sequence, which lies within the outer-shelf sediment wedge sequence above R, does not have an electrical signature, indicating that the sediments above and below the channel boundaries have similar physical properties.