Risk Assessment and Disaster Management for Natural and Anthropogenically Induced Geologic Hazards: Application to the Preolkhon Region,Western Lake Baikal,Siberia, Russia

In the Western Lake Baikal, recent Baikal Rift's tectonics control the topography, seismicity, climate, geomorphology, and economy. Scarps, facets, structural terraces, horsts and grabens, and trapezoid valleys can be clearly observed. They have been generated by the recent tectonic movements along the faults and represent a serious geologic hazard. The specific geological conditions predetermine a unique variety of landscapes. Thus, the main type of the economy is tourism. However, unorganized tourism leads to the degradation of the unique landscapes. It increases risk and requires disaster management. Three criteria has been used for risk assessment: (1) degree of geologic hazard; (2) degree of landscape degradation; and (3) degree of the economy's vitality. The high ecological significance and low stability to antropogeneous pressure are typical for landscapes of the Western Lake Baikal. Thus, some special activities of disaster management should be implemented based on our investigation.     

Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

Authigenic iron and titanium oxides in triassic red beds: (St. Bees Sandstone), Cumbria,Northern England

Authigenic iron and titanium oxides occur in three main textural varieties in the St. Bees Sandstone, a Triassic red bed succession in Cumbria. These are: (a) overgrowths of haematite, titaniferous haematite, anatase, and rutile which generally occur on detrital host grains of similar compositions. The overgrowths may occur as syntaxial rim cements or rhombohedral and prismatic projections and are always in optical continuity, (b) discrete crystals of anatase (including octahedrite) and haematite 10-40 μm in size occur in pore spaces, and (c) fine grained ( < 1 μm) pigmentary haematite occurs as grain coatings around detrital grains and in the interstitial matrix. The euhedral nature and pore-filling habit clearly indicate the authigenic origin of these iron- and titanium oxides. All three textural varieties are believed to have been precipitated from ground waters containing dissolved ferrous and titanium ions. These ions were derived from the intrastratal solution of detrital iron and titanium bearing grains including ferromagnesian silicates and iron-titanium oxides. The precipitation of iron oxides from migrating ground waters in the manner described here goes some way to explaining how thick, uniformly red successions can be formed.     

Revised identifications in the 5C2 survey

In the present paper revised distances of optical objects from radio sources of the 5C2 survey are given. A statistical investigation of the data is given for blue objects and galaxies by the statistical method of the “first neighbour”. The identification rate on blue plates for both the blue objects and galaxies amounts to about 40% out of the total number of 26 identifications. For every blue object and galaxy which are proposed as an identification the statistical reliability is given.     

Photometrische Kalibrierung von Schmidtspiegelaufnahmen durch ein bildteilendes Hilfsprisma

Plates of the Tautenburg Schmidt can be calibrated with the aid of a beam-splitting prisma only if Schraffierkassette plates are used. The effects of image structure, scintillation and intermittence on in-focus images are different for the main component and the prismatic companion. Therefore, such plates cannot be used to set up a photometric scale.     

Possible Interpretations of B2 and 5C Quasar Candidate Counts and the “Cut off” in Quasar Density

Optical quasar candidate counts in the far reaching radio surveys B₂ and 5C are consistent either with a luminosity function containing a high percentage of low luminosity objects and a cut off in quasar density or, more probably, with a normal number of quasars at high redshifts and a less steep luminosity function. The absence of high redshifted objects in currently available samples is to be expected of q₀ ≈︂ o and if some of the few quasars observed at z>2.2 are exceptionally bright intrinsically and not typical for the bulk.     

Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Recent evolution of Lake Arreo,northern Spain: influences of land use change and climate

We present a high-resolution, multiproxy reconstruction of the depositional history of Lake Arreo, northern Spain, for the last 60 years. We conducted sedimentological, geochemical and diatom analyses in short cores and made a detailed comparison with regional instrumental climate data (1952–2007), limnological monitoring of the lake (1992–2008) and recent land use changes that affect the lake catchment. Chronology is based on “floating” discontinuous varve counts and ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dates. Four periods were identified in the Lake Arreo recent history: (1) prior to 1963, varved facies intercalated with fine turbidite deposits, and diatom assemblages dominated by Cyclotella taxa indicate predominantly meromictic conditions, (2) from 1964 to 1978, permanent anoxia persisted in bottom waters, as shown by similar facies and diatom assemblages as before, though detrital layers were coarser, (3) from 1979 to 1994, sediment delivery to the lake increased and laminated, clastic facies were deposited, and (4) from 1995 to 2008, dominance of massive facies and an increase in Fragilaria tenera and Achnanthes minutissima reflect relatively lower lake levels, less frequent bottom anoxia with more frequent water column mixing, similar to modern conditions. The period 1952–1979 was a time of meromixis and varved facies deposition, and was characterized by higher rainfall and less intense agricultural pressure in the watershed. There were two short humid periods (1992–1993 and 1996–1998) when monitoring data show more anoxic weeks per year and relatively higher lake levels. Increased cultivation of small landholdings in 1963, and particularly after 1979, caused a large increase in sediment delivery to the lake. The inferred lake evolution is in agreement with monitoring data that suggest a transition from dominantly meromictic conditions prior to 1993–1994 to a predominantly monomictic pattern of circulation since then, particularly after 2000. The synergistic effects of intensive water extraction for irrigation and lower rainfall since 1979, and particularly since 1994, brought the long period of meromictic conditions in Lake Arreo to an end. Water balance and sediment delivery to the lake are dominant factors that control the limnological and mixing conditions in Lake Arreo and they must be considered in management and restoration plans.     

High-precision repeat-groundtrack orbit design and maintenance for Earth observation missions

The focus of this paper is the design and station keeping of repeat-groundtrack orbits for Sun-synchronous satellites. A method to compute the semimajor axis of the orbit is presented together with a station-keeping strategy to compensate for the perturbation due to the atmospheric drag. The results show that the nodal period converges gradually with the increase of the order used in the zonal perturbations up to \(J_{15}\). A differential correction algorithm is performed to obtain the nominal semimajor axis of the reference orbit from the inputs of the desired nodal period, eccentricity, inclination and argument of perigee. To keep the satellite in the proximity of the repeat-groundtrack condition, a practical orbit maintenance strategy is proposed in the presence of errors in the orbital measurements and control, as well as in the estimation of the semimajor axis decay rate. The performance of the maintenance strategy is assessed via the Monte Carlo simulation and the validation in a high fidelity model. Numerical simulations substantiate the validity of proposed mean-elements-based orbit maintenance strategy for repeat-groundtrack orbits.