Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Assessment of the impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and enstrophy as a diagnostic

It was shown that abrupt changes in the large-scale structure of atmospheric flows may lead to the rapid decay of blocking. Analysis of phase diagrams made it possible to identify when sharp changes occurred in the dynamics of the system. The connection of these changes to the decay of blocking was estimated for three blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to phase diagrams, enstrophy was used as a diagnostic tool for the analysis of blocking events. From the results of this analysis, four scenarios for the decay mechanisms were determined: (i) decay with a lack of synoptic-scale support, (ii) decay with an active role for synoptic processes, and (iii–iv) either of these mechanisms in the interaction with an abrupt change in the character of the planetary-scale flow.     

Method and results of assimilation of climatic data on temperature,salinity, and sea level into a numerical model of the Black Sea

A method for combined assimilation of climatic hydrologic fields of temperature, salinity, and the climatic dynamic level of the Black Sea into a model of sea dynamics is proposed. The monthly mean fields of the dynamic sea level were obtained from the results of assimilation of satellite altimetry data into the model. The statistical characteristics of errors in the forecasts of the level, salinity, and temperature were assumed to be proportional to the statistical characteristics of the differences between monthly mean climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and sea level calculated by means of assimilating altimetry observations of the sea level and analogous climatic hydrologic fields. The climatic fields of currents are reconstructed and analyzed. The assimilation of the climatic altimetry level allows the reproduction (in current fields) of quasi-stationary synoptic anticyclonic eddies located along the periphery of the Black Sea Rim Current.     

Evidence for sinistral strike-slip deformation in The Solomon Island arc

During the SOPACMAPS 2 crusie carried out by IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer) and ORSTOM (Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le dévelopement en Coopération) on theR/V L'Atalante, in the Central Solomon Arc area, multibeam bathymetric and imagery data and single-channel seismic reflection profiles were collected from an area of about 3500 km², to evaluate regional tectonics. Structural data geophysical profiles interpretation provide evidence for left-lateral transtensional tectonics on the southern edge of the Central Solomon Trough. This transtensional deformation is represented by faulting, block tilting, and rhombohedral deformation. The regional geology and the analysis of the sedimentary cover allow us to demonstrate that this tectonic occurred in two different phases during Oligocene to Miocene and Pliocene to Pleistocene times.     

Air pressure fluctuations in the North Atlantic and their relationship with El Niño-southern oscillations

Seasonal and interannual variability of the pressure field and indices of the North Atlantic atmosphere zonal circulation are analysed using historical (1894–1988) observations. It is shown that fluctuations of the index of North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and that of the eastward transport give evidence of the interannual fluctuations with the typical time scale being 2–7 years. It is shown that the magnitude of interannual NAO index variability exceeds the typical magnitude of seasonal variations, particularly in winter. The time scale of NAO index variations and eastward transport coincides with the typicalEl Niño-southern oscillations (ENSO) temporal scale. The amplitudes of the annual, semi-annual harmonics, and high-frequency fluctuations of the NAO index increase during a typical ENSO event at least by a factor of 2.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

Simulation of the Atlantic Ocean seasonal variability, using a quasi-isopycnic model

The paper discusses the data derived from a numerical experiment on the ocean’s response (between the equator and 64°N) to the seasonal variability of the atmospheric forcing (wind and heat flux through the ocean surface). A multilayer (7 layers) non-linear model is used incorporating the upper mixed layer interacting with the internal layers in the regimes of entraining and subduction. The restructuring of the layer composition, the currents and temperature variability, as well as the alternation of the entrainment and subduction regimes are analysed. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Dynamics of the long-period tides

The long-period tides are a tool for understanding oceanic motions at low frequencies and large scales. Here we review observations and theory of the fortnightly, monthly and pole tide constitutents. Observations have been plagued by low signal-to-noise ratios and theory by the complex lateral geometry and great sensitivity to bottom slopes. A new spectral element model is used to compute the oceanic response to tidal forcing at 2-week and monthly periods. The general response is that of a heavily damped (Q ≈ 5) system with both the energy input from the moon and the dissipation strongly localized in space. The high dissipation result is probably generally applicable to all low frequency barotropic oceanic motions. Over much of the ocean, the response has both the character of a large-scale and a superposed Rossby wave-like character, thus vindicating two apparently conflicting earlier interpretations. To the extent that free waves are excited they are consistent with their being dominated by Rossby and topographic Rossby wave components, although gravity modes are also necessarily excited to some degree. In general, a modal representation is not very helpful. The most active regions are the Southern Ocean and the western and northern North Atlantic. These results are stable to changes in geometry, topography, and tide period. On a global average basis, the dynamical response of Mm is closer to equilibrium than is Mf.