SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.     

An empirical model of the daily evolution of the coronal index

Global changes of the solar activity can be expressed by the coronal index that is based upon the total irradiance of the coronal 530.3 nm green line from observations at five stations. Daily mean values of the coronal index of solar activity and other well-correlated solar indices are analyzed for the period 1966–1998 covering over three solar cycles. The significant correlation of this index with the sunspot number and the solar flare index have led to an analytical expression which can reproduce the coronal index of solar activity as a function of these parameters. This expression explains well the existence of the two maxima during the solar cycles taking into account the evolution of the magnetic field that can be expressed by some sinusoidal terms during solar maxima and minima. The accuracy between observed and calculated values of the coronal index on a daily basis reaches the value of 71%. It is concluded that the representative character of the coronal index is preserved even when using daily data and can therefore allow us to study long-term, intermediate and short-term variations for the Sun as a star, in association with different periodical solar–terrestrial phenomena useful for space weather studies.     

Photometry of pluto in the last decade and before: evidence for volatile transport?

Photometric observations of Pluto in the BVR filter system were obtained in 1999 and in 1990-1993, and observations in the 0.89-μm methane absorption band were obtained in 2000. Our 1999 observations yield lightcurve amplitudes of 0.30 ± 0.01, 0.26 ± 0.01, and 0.21 ± 0.02 and geometric albedos of 0.44 ± 0.04, 0.52 ± 0.03, and 0.58 ± 0.02 in the B, V, and R filters, respectively. The low-albedo hemisphere of Pluto is slightly redder than the higher albedo hemisphere. A comparison of our results and those from previous epochs shows that the lightcurve of Pluto changes substantially through time. We developed a model that fully accounts for changes in the lightcurve caused by changes in the viewing geometry between the Earth, Pluto, and the Sun. We find that the observed changes in the amplitude of Pluto’s lightcurve can be explained by viewing geometry rather than by volatile transport. We also discovered a measurable decrease since 1992 of ∼0.03 magnitudes in the amplitude of Pluto’s lightcurve, as the model predicts. Pluto’s geometric albedo does not appear to be currently increasing, as our model predicts, although given the uncertainties in both the model and the measurements of geometric albedo, this result is not firm evidence for volatile transport. The maximum of methane-absorption lightcurve occurs near the minimum of the BVR lightcurves. This result suggests that methane is more abundant in the brightest regions of Pluto. Pluto’s phase coefficient exhibits a color dependence, ranging from 0.037 ± 0.01 in the B filter to 0.032 ± 0.01 in the R filter. Pluto’s phase curve is most like those of the bright, recently resurfaced satellites Triton and Europa. Although Pluto shows no strong evidence for volatile transport now (unlike Triton), it is important to continue to observe Pluto as it moves away from perihelion.